Coomi Kapoor's Inside Track: Modis' slide, Congress's yo-yo and a nation at a crossroads – Opinion News

Snakes and Ladders

End-of-year reviews usually summarize the winners and losers of the year. But in the political rat race of 2024, it was a snakes and ladders scenario, with plenty of ups and downs for the high-profile players. Narendra Modi's shifting power graph reflects the fluctuating fortunes of many political actors.

The ball was set for the 2024 parliamentary elections with the high-profile consecration of the Ram temple in Ayodhya in January. The hope was to unleash a wave of religious fervor that would sweep the BJP to victory. An overconfident BJP boasted that it would improve its performance in 2019 with the slogan chaar sau paar. The belief in the BJP's invincibility was pervasive, with even the media and pollsters echoing this sentiment. The first to jump ship was the famous weather vane Nitish Kumar, then president of the INDIA bloc. Others, like RLD Jayant Chaudhary, followed suit.

The Congress has all but withdrawn from the UP battleground with the Gandhi family abandoning its pocket districts of Amethi and Rae Bareli. Despite the seemingly insurmountable obstacles, some regional opposition satraps, such as Sharad Pawar, Akhilesh YadavMamata Banerjee and Revanth Reddy, persevered.

Hindutva hiccups

Despite the BJP's boldness, there were indicators, which most failed to read, suggesting that the party's powerful electoral heavyweight was in trouble. To begin with, there was friction between the BJP and the RSS. Many Sangh members did not campaign, annoyed by the number of outsiders with dubious credentials inducted into the party. Amid the campaign, Modi's shrill and polarizing speeches reflected his nervousness. But the Hindutva card did not work as well as expected, with the BJP even losing in Ayodhya. Quite unexpectedly, RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat has repeatedly warned of the dangers of polarizing and divisive politics.

The results of the parliamentary poll were a major setback for the ruling party, although the BJP has shown courage since Modi returned as prime minister, with the support of its allies. One of the reasons for the BJP's electoral decline was a masterful word-of-mouth campaign suggesting that the BJP was keen to amend the Constitution and end reservations for OBCs and SCs. Indeed, the Constitution and Ambedkar were the recurring leitmotifs of all parties. Even an astute Amit Shah slipped badly late in the year on a throwaway line about Dalit icon open to misinterpretation.

The BJP's lackluster performance has comforted those who feared that the Modi government was moving toward majoritarianism and authoritarianism, with institutions meant to serve as checks and balances slowly succumbing. Two years ago, the Supreme Court, under the then Chief Justice DY Chandrachud, had allowed an inquiry into the Gyanvapi Mosque in Varanasi and made an oral observation that the inquiry could not not be in breach of the Places of Worship Act 1991.

The fallout has paved the way for civil suits challenging the title of medieval mosques in several places and most recently in Sambhal, UP, where violence erupted. The Supreme Court, under the new CJI Sanjiv Khanna, has restrained lower courts from passing orders in such inflammatory suits until a final judgment is given in the case. An interesting footnote is that Chandrachud's father supported the majority view in the 1976 SC verdict upholding the suspension of fundamental rights to life and liberty during the Emergency. Khanna's uncle, Justice HR Khanna, was the only dissenter in the same judgment and paid the price by losing the opportunity to become the Chief Justice.

Congressional Yo-Yo

The Congress's fortunes also yo-yoed. The year started on a low note, following last year's surprise Assembly defeats in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. The party has reached an unrealistic height after the Lok Sabha results. Rahul Gandhis entitled Coterie smugly assumed that it was only a matter of time before he would be the fourth from the family to become Prime Minister. They failed to understand that the fact that the BJP does not meet expectations does not automatically mean a victory for the Congress. The party's disastrous performance in the Maharashtra and Haryana Assembly polls ended the post-Lok Sabha euphoria. Indian partners now openly question Gandhi's ability to lead an anti-BJP front.

The unprecedented fight between BJP and Congress MPs on the steps of the new Parliament recently marked a new low for democracy, even as India celebrated 75 years of the Constitution. The year also worsened competition between parties over gift-giving, which the prime minister described as revdis. But Maharashtra's Mahayuti ignored the Prime Minister's advice, handing out five installments of cash benefits to BPL women just before the Assembly elections were announced.