Brexit capitulation team speaks out as nightmare won't go away

This might surprise some, given the fervor with which the cause was promoted by a Brexit camp that told the electorate that everything was going to be wonderful afterwards, when all the evidence was that the reality would be quite the opposite. that of the Leavers. adage.

However, given that the reality of Brexit has unfolded as predictably as night follows day, it was no surprise to see first former Prime Minister Boris Johnson, and then his successor, Rishi Sunak, turn down the volume on Brexit.

Unfortunately, the Labor government's red lines, unless of course it decides to erase them (which seems highly unlikely), mean we are stuck with the essence of the Tories' hard Brexit.

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With Labor having ruled out rejoining the European Union, the single market or even the customs union, the UK will remain deprived of the two huge benefits it enjoyed when it was a member of the EU. This was, of course, frictionless trade with the country's largest trading partner and free movement of people between the UK and countries in the European Economic Area (EEA).

There therefore appears to be little chance of significantly mitigating the enormous damage caused to the UK economy and living standards by the Brexit nightmare.

This does not mean, however, that Brexit will not be a political hot potato this year.

The team of civil servants formed by Labor to try to improve post-Brexit arrangements with the EU, with Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer's lamentably modest targets in this regard, has been spoken of by M's chief negotiator . Johnson for Brexit, Lord David Frost. , as a surrender squad.

Given Lord Frost's passion for the hard Brexit which he helped bring about, his use of such language is unsurprising. However, in a political context, the words used by Lord Frost, former chief executive of the Scotch Whiskey Association, are most eye-catching.

He told the Mail on Sunday late last year: They (Labour) cannot hide the creation of this capitulation team in the Cabinet Office. This huge unit is preparing for a major renegotiation – it will have more people than I had during the original deal with the EU in 2020.

He added: Everyone in this government really wants to rejoin the EU one day. Only public opinion stops them. So they are trying to act in secret and hide their plans to align with EU rules, restore EU law and hand over our fishing grounds, calling it all a simple reset.

If we fail to stop them, the reset will end with this country once again in the EU's orbit, gradually losing our ability to set our own rules and make our own laws. It is time for those who support our national independence and our democracy to wake up.

But it is certainly the reality of Brexit itself, in terms of the enormous damage caused to the UK economy, living standards and society, that should attract the attention of more people of people.

A study published last month by the London School of Economics and Political Science found a considerable reduction in British exports to the EU since the country left the European single market.

And the LSE's Center for Economic Performance, which published the analysis, said the post-Brexit trade and cooperation deal between the UK and EU had been a disaster for small businesses.

The CEP study showed that the TCA reduced the UK's total merchandise exports by around 27 billion, or 6.4%, in 2022, due to a 13.2% fall in value of goods exported to the EU.

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CEP's analysis used data from more than 100,000 companies to estimate the gap between the actual value of exports under the TCA and what would have been expected if the UK had remained in the EU.

The study found that 14% of companies (around 16,400) that previously exported to the EU stopped doing so after the TCA came into force in January 2021.

Thomas Sampson, co-author of the CEP report and associate professor of economics at LSE, said: “The ATT was a disaster for small exporters, many of whom simply stopped exporting to the EU.

In its latest economic and fiscal outlook published to coincide with the Labor budget on October 30, the independent Office for Budgetary Responsibility said: The effects of weak investment, the energy price shock and Brexit are worsening the persistent weakness observed since the financial crisis.

He adds: Low growth in imports and exports in the medium term in part [reflects] the ongoing impact of Brexit, which we expect to reduce the overall trade intensity of the UK economy by 15% in the long term.

And OBR chairman Richard Hughes said in spring 2023 of the effect of Brexit: “We believe that in the long term it will reduce our overall production by around 4% compared to what we would have remained in the EU.

Labour's ambitions for better post-Brexit arrangements with the EU are, as previously noted, modest, particularly regarding the mutual recognition of professional qualifications and the easing of some trade bureaucracy.

It remains obvious, of course, if political considerations could be put aside and Labor had the courage to tell Brexit supporters the reality of the situation, that the UK would start negotiating a return to the single market as soon as possible. . .

Full membership of the EU would obviously be preferable, but it would take much longer, with the UK having previously benefited not only from a significant discount but also from not having to commit to joining the euro.

The EEA countries Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein are part of the single market but not the EU. So there is a model in place by which the UK could regain the enormous benefits of frictionless trade with the powerful bloc and the free movement of people, if only its leaders had the courage.