Stories to watch in 2025

Welcome to the China In Eurasia Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that tracks China's resurgent influence from Eastern Europe to Central Asia.

I'm RFE/RL correspondent Reid Standish, and this is who I am right now.

Headwinds and tailwinds in Beijing

It's a new year and that means it's time to look to the year ahead for the big stories that will shape China's growing role in Eurasia.

Here are the challenges for 2025.

Find a perspective: If each new year brings its share of questions, 2025 will add an additional layer with the return of Donald Trump to the presidency of the United States in January.

Trump has promised to pick up where he left office and increase tariffs on Chinese imports by up to 60% and continue to strengthen export controls on advanced technology.

A tougher relationship with the United States could have greater repercussions for Beijing. Unlike 2018, when Trump first imposed tariffs on China, the country's economy is in a two-year slump as it grapples with high debt, deflation and a housing crisis .

Further economic difficulties brought on by Washington could potentially derail many of Beijing's global ambitions, leading to setbacks in technology, lending and broader influence.

But Chinese leader Xi Jinping isn't just facing headwinds as he prepares for Trump 2.0.

Xi now enjoys a strengthened partnership with Russian President Vladimir Putin, as the two leaders seek to overhaul international borders and the global and regional security order.

And while Trump could increase pressure on Beijing in areas such as the South China Sea, Xi also senses opportunity from the new US president.

Trump has promised to make his own changes to the international trading system and Washington's relations with its allies and partners.

Xi believes Trump's policies will drive other countries away from the United States, leading to typically U.S.-friendly countries becoming more protective of China and greater acceptance of Beijing's vision by others. for the world order.

Geopolitical twins: The biggest test could come as soon as the new Trump administration turns its attention to the ongoing war in Ukraine.

During his election campaign, Trump promised to end the war, and in doing so, it won't be an easy taskan initiative to end the conflict is expected and Ukraine's future will have broader effects across Eurasia and beyond.

A Russian victory in Ukraine would have a particularly important resonance in China. One obvious possibility is that it would encourage Xi to pursue his own ambitions in Asia.

China under Xi has become more nationalist and more threatening in its behavior toward Taiwan, and Taiwanese officials have warned that a Russian victory would be a signal for Beijing to step up pressure on the self-ruled island.

Why it's important: Xi has pledged to unify with Taiwan, and to do so by force, if necessary.

Some top U.S. officials have speculated that Xi told the military to be ready to conquer the island by 2027. Xi himself has publicly mentioned 2050 as a potential date, but many analysts believe also that the Chinese leader would aim to take the island and secure its legacy during his term. Already 71 years old, that leaves only a short window.

President Joe Biden has repeatedly said Washington is prepared to go to war to defend Taiwan against a Chinese invasion, although Trump has made no such commitment.

What to expect from Trump was the topic of most of my conversations during a recent reporting trip to Taiwan in December.

Many Taiwanese officials have found some comfort in the China hawks the new president seems to surround himself with, but Trump has also introduced a new level of uncertainty and his campaign rhetoric calling for Taiwan to pay for the U.S. come to his aid. in crisis seems to have shaken some in Taipei.

Top current and former Taiwanese officials said Taipei and Beijing are already learning important lessons from the Ukraine war, but the biggest could come in 2025, as the two countries observe how kyiv's experience with the Western support unfolds over time.

Three more stories from Eurasia to watch in 2025

1. Chinese companies are establishing themselves in Central Asia

Chinese companies have been ascendant in Central Asia for many years and this trend is expected to continue in 2025 driven by Chinese electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers and technology giants.

The details: While megaprojects and investments often take the spotlight when looking at China's economic profile in the region, its businesses are becoming pillars of daily life for many Central Asians.

Electric vehicles play an important role in this dynamic, especially as Chinese companies look to emerging markets and seek to export their excess capacity at home.

A factory of Chinese industrial leader BYD opened this year in Uzbekistan and is seeking to accelerate production and expand with a local workforce made up of Chinese-trained employees.

Sales of electric vehicles continue to climb globally and in Central Asia, with Chinese brands occupying a growing percentage of the market thanks to their combination of affordability and increasing quality.

Technologically, Huawei is also making progress in the region despite pressure from Washington and other Western countries.

Despite some global setbacks, the company remains formidable and looked outside the West with increasing returns and a renewed focus on emerging technologies like AI and semiconductors.

2. The tightrope of EU 2.0

Brussels is preparing to once again confront potential tariffs and trade disputes with the Trump-led United States, while balancing pressure and opportunities from China.

What you need to know: In many ways, this is déjà vu all over again for the EU.

During Trump's last term, trade tensions with Washington led the bloc to more strongly balance its ties with the United States and China. By the time Trump left office, Brussels was preparing to push through a landmark investment deal between the EU and China and had lingering questions about its dependence on America.

That trade deal was ultimately shelved and a series of scandals and incidents, beginning with the COVID-19 pandemic and culminating with Beijing's support for Russia after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, seriously damaged China's relations with Brussels.

But even if there is a new course of action from the EU towards Beijing, it is a familiar balancing act that could leave Brussels in an even worse situation than before, as it seeks to balance security concerns with economic necessities.

3. Is this the year for China in Afghanistan?

It's been a year of major announcements regarding China's footprint in Afghanistan, but will 2025 be the year Beijing's plans in the country move forward?

What this means: The year 2024 was marked by a series of notable developments. In JulyChinese engineers and the Taliban government have officially begun work on Mes Aynak, a massive project in Afghanistan aimed at exploiting the world's second-largest copper deposit.

The first train carrying goods from China to Afghanistan arrived in November after passing through Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, and Beijing granted tariff-free access to Afghan companies in October.

This momentum is expected to continue into the new year. But beyond the headlines and the raucous inauguration ceremonies, will new Chinese investments arrive in Afghanistan?

This seems uncertain given that Beijing still has lingering security questions regarding Afghanistan, a question that will only worsen as tensions rise between Kabul and Beijing's main regional partner in Islamabad.

Across the supercontinent

Russian automobile market: Since Vladimir Putin's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, Chinese automakers have come to dominate the Russian auto market.

Russia has also become China's most important automotive export market, according to a new study by Rhodium Group. Between January and October 2023, China shipped 735,000 vehicles to Russia, accounting for 19% of its total passenger vehicle exports.

New lines in Central Asia: In a ceremony on December 27, Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov inaugurated the construction of a long-planned rail link between China, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan.

Balancing BRICS: Kazakhstan officially joins BRICS as a partner state from January 1, 2025.

But the office of Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev said the country was not considering becoming a full member of the organization that includes the economies of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.

One thing to watch out for

Xi delivered his annual New Year's speech in which he said no one could stop Beijing's desire to take control of Taiwan.

“People on both sides of the Taiwan Strait are one family. No one can sever our family ties, and no one can stop the historic trend of national reunification,” Xi said in a televised speech.

The Chinese leader also said the country's economy was his top priority and was on track to grow, while seeking to refute fears that the new Trump administration could harm Beijing's prospects in during the new year.

That's all from me for now. Don't forget to send me any questions, comments or advice you may have.

Until next time,

Reid Standish

If you enjoyed this briefing and don't want to miss the next edition, subscribe here. It will be delivered to your inbox every other Wednesday.