Once loyal friends, Afghanistan and Pakistan are now at loggerheads. Here's why

Once close allies, relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan have deteriorated significantly, with experts blaming a colonial-era border and a strategy of supporting religious extremists that has backfired.

Pakistan carried out deadly airstrikes on Afghanistan's Paktika province last week, reportedly killing 46 people, including women and children.

The strikes apparently targeted Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants who aim to overthrow the Pakistani government and establish an Islamic state operating from Afghan territory.

The Afghan Taliban government condemned the incident, calling it a “blatant violation of all international principles”, and launched retaliatory attacks.

The Taliban Defense Ministry posted on .

A pro-Taliban media outlet, Hurriyet Daily News, cited ministry sources as saying the strikes killed 19 Pakistani soldiers and three Afghan civilians.

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Afghanistan also summoned the charge d'affaires of the Pakistan embassy in Kabul to issue a strong note of protest over the airstrikes.

Today, Pakistan faces a major diplomatic headache with a key ally, amid its own internal political crisis and a struggling economy, a problem that experts warn the country cannot afford .

Historical roots of tensions

The origins of the discord can be traced to the Durand Line, a colonial-era border established in 1893 that successive Afghan governments have refused to recognize.

“The main problem has been border tensions, exacerbated by the resurgence of the Taliban and their refusal to act against the TTP,” said Nematullah Bizhan, a senior lecturer at the Australian National University's Center for Development Policy.

Dr Bizhan said Pakistan had long encouraged religious extremism to counter Afghan nationalism.

“During the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in the 1980s, Pakistan established religious schools to train young Afghan refugees to become fighters, thereby ensuring its influence over Afghanistan,” he said.

“The Pakistani establishment has always sought a friendly or pro-Pakistan government in Kabul to secure its western borders.”

However, this strategy has backfired in recent decades, when extremist religious groups like the TTP have turned their attention to Pakistan.

Intensification of the conflict

Abdul Basit, a senior research associate at RSIS in Singapore, said Pakistan and the TTP had established fragile ceasefires in 2021 and 2022.

“Both fell apart because of a lack of trust and ideological differences,” Mr. Basit said.

“These short-lived truces reflect the complexity of the TTP issue, which is closely linked to ethnic grievances and Islamist narratives.”

Mr. Basit said that “the TTP has mixed Pashtun ethnic nationalism with Islamist ideology, presenting itself as a champion of Pashtun rights while exploiting grievances over border and governance issues.”

In July last year, Pakistan's Defense Minister Khawaja Asif told the BBC that his country would continue to launch attacks on Afghanistan as part of a new military operation to combat terrorism .

“It is true that we have carried out operations in Afghanistan and we will continue to do so,” Mr Asif told BBC Urdu.

“We will not serve them cakes and pastries. If we are attacked, we will fight back.”

Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Asif said his country would continue to launch attacks against Afghanistan. (Reuters: Maxim Shemetov)

With the advanced weapons left behind by the United States in Afghanistan, the TTP has significantly increased its operational capabilities, Basit said.

“The group [TTP] “We now have long-range sniper rifles and night vision goggles, which has increased the number of casualties among Pakistani forces guarding the border,” he said.

Pakistani security forces in 2024 suffered the highest number of casualties in nearly a decade as they battled insurgency, the Pakistan-based Center for Security Research and Studies said in a report. Islamabad.

Pakistani security forces in 2024 suffered the highest number of casualties in nearly a decade as they battled insurgency in the country and along the Afghan border. (Reuters: Nasir Ahmed)

According to the report, Pakistani forces have killed 950 militants this year, while 527 Pakistani security forces personnel and 489 civilians have been killed in militant attacks.

Pakistan's attempts to fortify the Durand Line with physical fencing have also faced significant challenges, with frequent violations.

“Erecting a physical border across thousands of kilometers is an overly simplistic solution to a deeply complex problem,” Mr. Basit said.

“Tribes living on both sides feel alienated, and actors like the TTP exploit these grievances.”

Pakistan's miscalculation

Experts say Pakistan misjudged the potential benefits of the Taliban returning to power in Kabul.

Islamabad had hoped that the Taliban would curb TTP activities, take back the thousands of Afghan refugees living in Pakistan and neutralize anti-Pakistan elements in Afghanistan, Basit said.

“Pakistan simplistically assumed that all problems would disappear with the Taliban in power. But all major problems related to refugees, border conflicts and militancy have instead been exacerbated,” he said.

“Pakistan is today paying the price for its decades-long investments in extremist groups.

“He finds himself in a position where he must manage tensions with the Taliban while also dealing with the growing threat from the TTP.”

As relations deteriorate, both governments face immense pressure to maintain dialogue while addressing security concerns.

“The relationship is at rock bottom, but it is unlikely to collapse completely,” Mr Basit said.

“The current pattern of violence, airstrikes and reprisals is likely to continue, with occasional diplomatic overtures.”

Pakistan's domestic challenges

Mr Basit said Pakistan's military was overwhelmed by TTP militancy, a separate insurgency in Balochistan and political unrest resulting from the overthrow of former Prime Minister Imran Khan.

“Although Pakistan's economy has stabilized somewhat thanks to an IMF program, these internal and external pressures are straining its ability to effectively manage security and diplomacy,” he said.

He said the need for pragmatic solutions in the face of idealistic expectations should be at the forefront of Pakistan's strategy.

“Fundamental discussions are needed to manage tensions rather than resolve them outright,” he said, citing the Taliban government's lack of international legitimacy as a major obstacle.

Pakistan is currently facing its own internal political crisis as mass protests in support of former Prime Minister Imran Khan end in deadly clashes. (AP: Anjum Naveed)

“Pakistan must strike a balance between kinetic actions and diplomacy, but there are no easy answers.

“The border issue and the TTP challenge will remain irritants for the foreseeable future.”

ABC/son

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