Is Erdogan ready to remake the Middle East? – Academic

The consequences of Assad's fall are considerable. Among the biggest geopolitical beneficiaries are Israel and Turkey.

For Syria, the immediate challenges include political fragmentation, sectarian divisions and a crumbling infrastructure that complicate refugee return and reconstruction.

Regionally, Iran's influence has been severely weakened, while Russia's withdrawal signals a major shift in Middle East geopolitics. At the same time, there are serious concerns about Syria's future under Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), given its Islamist roots and controversial governance record.

Even as the fall of Damascus has reshaped geopolitics in the Middle East, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, marked by a decade of lessons from the Arab Spring and the Gezi Park protests, emerges as a leader trying to reorganize not only Syria , but also the world. wider Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region.

Combining a potent mix of religious ideology, strategic pragmatism and regional ambition, Erdogan foresees a post-Assad order that will strengthen Turkey's dominance and possibly redefine the political map of the Middle East.

Every Thursday

Whether you're looking to broaden your horizons or stay informed about the latest developments, Viewpoint is the ideal source for anyone looking to address the issues that matter most.

for subscribing to our newsletter!

Please check your email for your newsletter subscription.

See more newsletters

At the heart of Erdogan's leadership is an ideological foundation influenced by Turkey's unique version of political Islam.

Erdogan draws heavily on the principles of the Muslim Brotherhood, whose vision of Islamic governance aligns with Erdogan's desire to establish a regional order where political Islam takes center stage.

The Arab Spring of 2011 initially seemed to validate this ideology, as Islamist movements rose to power in Egypt, Tunisia and elsewhere. However, the rapid collapse of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and the region as a whole has served as a sobering lesson for Erdogan.

He witnessed the dangers of overreach and political mismanagement, which alienated crucial parts of society and foreign stakeholders.

Learning from these failures, Erdogan opted for a more pragmatic approach: supporting groups like HTS in Syria while simultaneously presenting Turkey as a stabilizing power in the region.

Its ideological ambition remains intact, but it is now tempered by strategic calculations aimed at ensuring long-term influence.

Syria is apparently Erdogan's ambitious and strategic undertaking.

For more than a decade, Turkey has been the most consistent supporter of the Syrian opposition, despite the economic, political and national costs. While Assad's allies Russia, Iran and Hezbollah once thwarted Turkey's ambitions, the collapse of the Syrian regime has given Erdogan a chance to rethink the country's future.

Erdogan's alliance with HTS, now the dominant force in Damascus, reflects his ability to confront ideological and strategic challenges. Turkey protected HTS during its years in Idlib, provided it with economic and logistical support, and influenced the group's decisions.

Assad's fall is evidence of Turkey's Syria policy, positioning Erdogan as the main power broker in Damascus.

Turkey's objectives in Syria are clear.

First, Erdogan aims to address domestic discontent by facilitating the return of millions of Syrian refugees.

Second, Ankara views the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) as an existential threat and seeks to dismantle their autonomy in northeastern Syria.

Third, by supporting HTS and engaging Arab tribes, Turkey can ensure a stable post-Assad Syria aligned with Ankara’s interests.

Even as Turkey's influence grows, the future remains fraught with challenges.

HTS's promises of inclusion and unity are met with skepticism, particularly among Syria's Kurds, Druze and Christians, who fear marginalization. Furthermore, Erdogan's support for an Islamist-led administration raises concerns about long-term stability and international legitimacy.

Erdogan's success in Syria has broader consequences for the region. Russia's withdrawal from Syria, weakened by its war in Ukraine and its strained ties with Armenia, marks a change in regional power.

Turkey, once constrained by Moscow's rule, now enjoys greater freedom of maneuver, not only in Syria, but also in the Black Sea, Libya and the South Caucasus.

Iran, another key player in Syria, has also suffered a significant setback. Assad's fall disrupts Tehran's “axis of resistance,” limiting its ability to project power through Hezbollah and other proxies.

Erdogan's ascendancy in Syria could further erode Iran's influence, paving the way for Turkey to strengthen its ties with Arab states and the West.

Domestically, Erdogan's victory in Syria strengthens his political position.

Criticized for years for his Syria policies, Erdogan can now claim vindication, silencing his opponents and rallying support from nationalists.

The prospect of renewed cooperation with the United States, particularly under an administration skeptical of Middle East entanglements, adds another layer to Erdogan's strategic calculus.

However, the risks remain significant. The devastation of Syria makes immediate repatriation of refugees unrealistic and HTS's ability to govern inclusively is uncertain. If sectarian tensions, Kurdish resistance or jihadist rivalries resurface, Turkey could face a resurgence of instability along its southern border.

Erdogan's role in Syria reflects his broader ambition to reshape the Middle East and North Africa region in Turkey's image; a vision rooted in a mixture of neo-Ottomanism and political Islam.

Unlike the failures of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, Erdogan's approach emphasizes adaptability, pragmatism and strategic patience. By leveraging Turkey's military might, economic influence and ideological appeal, Erdogan seeks to position Ankara as the linchpin of a new regional order.

Syria is the test of this vision. If Erdogan succeeds in stabilizing Syria, repatriating refugees and containing Kurdish forces, he will consolidate Turkey's role as the dominant regional power. However, failure to address Syria's deep-rooted divisions and HTS's extremist tendencies could undermine Erdogan's gains, plunging the region back into chaos.

The fall of Damascus has created both opportunities and risks for Turkey and President Erdogan.

By combining ideological ambition and strategic pragmatism, Erdogan has positioned himself as a key architect of Syria's future and a central figure in reshaping the Middle East. If Erdogan succeeds, his vision of a stable, Sunni-led Syria under Turkish influence will mark a transformative dimension in regional politics.

For now, Erdogan finds himself at a crucial moment in Middle East history, with both the opportunity and the burden to remake the region's geopolitics in Turkey's image. Its success or failure will determine not only the fate of Syria, but also the balance of power in the entire region.

—

The author is Director, Inter-University Center for Social Sciences Research and Extension (IUCSSRE), Mahatma Gandhi University (MGU), Kerala, India. The article is republished under a Creative Commons license.