ISIS's tragic return in 2025 has begun

Will the Islamic State (IS) reconstitute itself? And where? : Prepare for the resurgence of the Islamic State, or what many call ISIS.

The U.S.-led coalition to defeat the Islamic State has not eliminated the threat; he simply contained it. More than 40,000 Islamic State veterans and their family members remain in limbo in the camp. Many lost their citizenship when they volunteered to join the Islamic State. The children of Islamic State militants have never had clear citizenship. For many in the West, Al-Hol became an out-of-sight, out-of-mind case as the news cycle progressed. Human rights groups have prevented the camp's dissolution, fearing that the Iraqi government, for example, would impose the death penalty on those who enslaved Yazidis and murdered Shiites and Christians.

The threat of Islamic State

The future of Al-Hol, the prison camp where Islamic State veterans and their families remain under Kurdish custody, is under threat for three interrelated reasons. First, the Turkish assault on Kurdish-administered areas forces Syrian Democratic Council guards to deploy elsewhere to protect Kurdish towns from a possible Turkish invasion. Second, Turkey could again target Kurdish prison guards, accusing them of being terrorists themselves. Finally, confirming that its goal is to change the prison regime, Turkey said its own Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a former al-Qaeda affiliate, could to resume daycare service.

If ISIS members and sympathizers escape, they will go in two general directions.

Many will remain in Syria or disperse across the Middle East. Some will seek retaliation against the Kurds, and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham will likely tolerate others in order to appease the militants under their umbrella or even play good cop and bad cop in advancing the caliphate's agenda without risking being held accountable for his actions. Others will travel to Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Egypt where they will join cells aimed at destabilizing the United States' key Arab allies. Still others will sell their skills as mercenaries on behalf of Islamists in Somalia, Libya and Sudan.

Many more will flee across the deliberately porous Turkish border. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has made a real art out of his blackmail on Europe by threatening to release refugees to the West. He would see the Islamic State as an opportunity, not a scourge. Not only will terrorist attacks, vehicular attacks, and bombings become commonplace across Western Europe, but some Islamic State veterans will be found as far away as America's southern border.

Without the will to arm the Kurds with surface-to-air missiles and sanction the Turkish economy into oblivion, there is little chance that the West will be able to prevent the breakup of ISIS.

Ironically, the only country that could remain safe from its blowback is Iraq. It's easy to be cynical about the usefulness of development. The U.S. Agency for International Development spends billions of dollars, often unrelated to broader U.S. national security goals. Often this undermines security and stability, as various regimes view its work as a safety net to escape responsibility for their own decisions.

However, development can be important. In the eight years since the defeat of the Islamic State, Mosul remains a shell of its former self. Successive Iraqi governments and Nineveh governors have bogged down reconstruction in red tape, while opportunistic officials siphon off Iraqi and international reconstruction funds. The Moslawis, never considered the most patient or generous people in Iraq, are angry, and rightly so. The Islamic State has victimized the city, but it could find fertile ground there again. The lack of development in Mosul will have consequences.

This is not the case in Al-Anbar. Twenty years ago, for example, Iraq's Al Anbar governorate was the epicenter of the insurgency. Fallujah and Ramadi were essentially no-kill zones. Over the past five years, they have been among the safest and most dynamic Iraqi cities, rivaling and even surpassing Iraqi Kurdistan in terms of development and trade. Simply put, the region benefited from the decision of its tribal and business leaders to stop waiting for handouts and take responsibility for their own city and region.

A U.S. Marine Corps light armored vehicle battalion landing team with 1st Battalion, 6th Marine Regiment, 22nd Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU), fires its 25mm Bushmaster machine gun during a training exercise live fire as part of Exercise Eager Lion 2014. Eager Lion is a recurring multinational exercise designed to strengthen military relationships, increase interoperability between partner nations and strengthen regional security. The 22nd MEU is deployed with the Bataan Amphibious Ready Group as a theater reserve and crisis response force throughout U.S. Central Command and the U.S. 5th Fleet area of ​​responsibility. (U.S. Marine Corps photo by Sgt. Austin Hazard/Released) Unit: 22nd Marine Expeditionary Unit DVIDS Tags: 22nd Marine Expeditionary Unit; 22 MEU; USMC; APC; United States Marine Corps; Jordan; Amphibious Ready Group; 22nd MEU; M240B machine gun; LAV; JAF; USS Bataan (LHD 5); ARG; 22nd MEU; LAR ; live firing range; light armored vehicle; light armored reconnaissance; M113 armored personnel carrier; Jordanian Armed Forces; EagerLion2014; Exercise Eager Lion 2014; 25mm Bushmaster machine gun.

Much like the Kurds of northeast Syria, the Arabs of Al Anbars have invested their own money in projects and put their own skin in the game. A competent governor willing to pounce on investments has further solidified progress. If the Islamic State seeks to gain a foothold in Al-Anbar, the local community will be the first to turn against it and attempt to uproot it.

ISIS and the tragedy of the Middle East

The Middle East is heading towards a crisis. In Iraq, certain regions like Al Anbar will be secure; others like Mosul less. Diplomatic subtlety will not save Jordan from the threat of Islamic State after decades of royal family corruption and ineffective administration. The same goes for Egypt and Kuwait. Decades of policymakers treating Turkey as an ally regardless of its behavior and a culture within the development community of spending money to solve problems rather than building local accountability have combined to create a powder keg that a mass escape from an Islamic State prison would set ablaze.

About the Author: Dr. Michael Rubin

Michael Rubin is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and director of policy analysis at the Middle East Forum. A former Pentagon official, Dr. Rubin has lived in post-revolution Iran and pre- and post-war Yemen and Iraq. He also spent time with the Taliban before 9/11. For more than a decade, he taught at-sea courses on conflict, culture and terrorism in the Horn of Africa and the Middle East to deployed U.S. Navy and Marine Corps units. Dr. Rubin is the author, co-author, and co-editor of several books exploring diplomacy, Iranian history, Arab culture, Kurdish studies, and Shia politics. The opinions of the authors are their own.