Politics
The rise of the Reformation will precipitate Badenoch and offer Boris his return
Having been surprised by the rise of the Reform Party, conservative commentators have recently adopted a new approach; Farage will not last and his party will implode like the Gang of Four in the 80s. They are so wrong.
I've seen a couple of articles, one by Iain Dale, a kind old Tory, and another by the writer Alan Cochrane which essentially makes one of two arguments: 1) That Badenoch is in its infancy and that management should defend its 14-year record. years and 2) Farage will disappear as quickly as David Owen.
Both arguments are ridiculous. The reason the Reform Party is so successful is because of what the Conservatives have done over the last decade. There are no votes to explain that it was a nightmare. They didn't believe in anything centre-right and were always trying to satisfy some strange Lib-Dim agenda.
Nigel Farage and the Reform Party will get votes from Labor and the Conservatives.
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If, under Badenoch, they go down that path, I guarantee she will not be Tory leader in two years. His problem is that a number of his MPs, including my desperate one, a guy called Ben Spencer, who hasn't done or said anything worth the carrot since he was elected, are to his left.
If they impose their way of thinking on him, they too will be kicked out during the next elections. Surely they're not that stupid.
The second argument made against the Reformers is that they should remember Thatcher, her unpopularity and how the SDP became a huge political force until it imploded and merged with the Liberals.
I don't buy the similarity. Farage's astonishing success, and make no mistake, this is the Farage Party, has come since the election. Normally, minority parties disappear after election day. The electorate had its little rebellion and then went back to sleep for five years.
Not this time. Reform represents a thought process that conservatives are unwilling or unable to replicate. And thanks to Starmer's incompetent leadership, he can't even travel to Madeira with his family without making a huge mistake: they'll pick up left-wing votes.
Boris Johnson could make a comeback after the Welsh Senedd elections in 2026.
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A fascinating Sunday Times poll showed that the Reform Party would win back all of those Red Wall seats. How incredible. Not a single Red Wall constituency would go to the Conservatives, even though it was Boris who drove them away from Labor in the first place. This should be a massive wake-up call for Badenoch.
This should also be a huge boost for Boris. A longtime close confidant (and drinking partner) tells me he will definitely have a chance to become leader again.
I'm betting this will happen in 2026, after the Welsh Senedd elections, where I expect the Reforms to get between 30-35% of the polls and the Conservatives to come fourth out of four with around 5%.
The investigation after a defeat of this magnitude will rush Badenoch towards the door and give Boris a chance. Badenoch's personal hostility towards Farage was a clear mistake and I would expect Boris to extend the hand of friendship to him.
He is a pragmatist and as long as he was Prime Minister, he would make a deal with the devil. If the right were united on election day, they would undoubtedly win. Otherwise, a Lib-Lab pact is still a horrible possibility.
So I don't see anything other than the Reform Party getting stronger over the years and there are no similarities between Farage and Roy Jenkins except their mutual love of a glass of good red.
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Sources 2/ https://www.gbnews.com/opinion/the-rise-of-reform-will-hurry-badenoch-out-and-hand-boris-his-comeback-kelvin-mackenzie The mention sources can contact us to remove/changing this article |
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