the five main priorities for 2025

The new British government now has six months to take office. And by the general standards of new governments, Keir Starmers was well prepared in terms of foreign policy. Once in power, the government set about. Defense Secretary John Healey visited Ukraine within 48 hours of taking up your position.

But 2025 promises to be tumultuous. So, after this good start, the UK has five foreign policy priorities for 2025.

1. Ukraine and Russia

We can expect to see the Starmers government continue to emphasize its commitment to Ukraine. The UK has provided almost 13 billion in aid so far with a further 3 billion committed for 2025. This includes both military equipment, training and non-military support.

However, after two years of conflict, there is increasing talk about what the end of the war might look like. After United States President-elect Donald Trump suggested he excluded Ukraine from the negotiationsthe UK will want to ensure that any peace talks include Ukraine. Historically, the UK has served as a bridge between the US and Europe, and the government will not want to give up that role if it can help it.

Since Boris Johnson's term in office, the United Kingdom has maintained close relations with the Ukrainian leadership. The government could use this and its historically close relationship with the United States to influence the format of the negotiations.

2. Middle East

The Starmers government has been much less clear about its intentions regarding the Middle East. The evolving situation in the region has made this task even more difficult. The end of the war in Syria in the final weeks of 2024 came as a surprise to many, and the UK will want to follow the international community in its approach to the new regime in Damascus. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the group in charge of the alliance that toppled the Assad regime, is still considered a terrorist organization in the United Kingdom. A decision will need to be made whether or not to change this classification before the UK can decide whether it will work with Syria's new leaders.

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Meanwhile, international condemnation of Israeli actions in Gaza is growing. Washington could continue to support Benjamin Netanyahu and its support is crucial to prevent international opposition from restricting Israel's ability to act as it wishes in Gaza. This leaves little room for maneuver in the UK. However, the new Trump administration may also be just as distracted by domestic issues. If US support for Israel declines, it could increase the possibility of international pressure on Netanyahu leading to peace negotiations or at least a longer-term ceasefire.

Given the importance of Gaza to Labor voters, Foreign Secretary David Lammy will likely want to keep up pressure on Tel Aviv to seek a peaceful solution. The UK has revoked 30 of 350 licenses for arms sale to Israel in 2024, because they can be used to engage a serious violation of international humanitarian law. To increase pressure, the UK could seek to further restrict arms sales. However, the remaining contracts continue to provide crucial elements for the Israeli military campaign in Gaza, especially parts for F-35 fighter jets. UK arms sales to Israel are also estimated at almost half a billion pounds, meaning the cost to the UK economy if more licenses were revoked would not be insignificant.

3. European Union

First attempts to reset UK-EU relations after July elections had only limited success due to the summer holidays in Brussels. Starmer has since met Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. The UK has signaled its intention to build on previous agreements by seeking to appoint another negotiator and holding annual summits with the EU. The UK has also set out negotiating points of mutual interest, such as security (both against terrorism and in the face of Russian aggression) and on the easing of trade barriers in key trade areas.

While EU leaders will have their own issues to contend with domestically in 2025, the UK government's change in tone towards the EU provides a good basis for potential deals this year.

Trump's re-election is also significant here. His past comments about European allies and disinterest in international cooperation mean that Europe may need to develop plans to deal with the United States being less present as a partner in the face of international challenges such as conflict in Ukraine, international trade agreements and climate change. For the UK, a more isolationist United States could increase the need for other partnerships, as was the case during its last presidency. Europe is the most obvious candidate.

Trump's condemnation of NATO could also increase the need for European NATO members to play a leadership role within the alliance. The UK has played this role in the past, although it has generally been in support of the US.

4. Asset

Trump's election victory means that the special relationship between the UK and Washington will be very different from what it would have been if Kamala Harris had won. Ahead of the UK election, Labor figures made considerable efforts to build relationships with Republicans. But Lammy fiercely criticized Trump in the past and a controversy surrounding Labor volunteers' aid to the Harris campaign appears to have made Trump particularly hostile to the Labor government.

Trump is of course unpredictable, especially when it comes to foreign policy, and so we cannot rule out the possibility of a reinvigorated special relationship. Nonetheless, Trump's isolationism and proposed tariffs on imports to the US mean the UK will still need to develop policies to help mitigate Washington's decisions in 2025.

5. Story

For any government, foreign policy is an important signal of intentions to both allies and opponents. Lammy is gone progressive realism like his approach. However, apart from the Chagos Islands Agreement with Mauritius, there is little indication of how this approach will manifest in practice. In 2025, Lammy will need to ensure that progressive realism is not lumped in with Boris Johnson's Global Britain approach, who cannot allow it to become a meaningless term.

With the conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza and Syria all at different stages, and the return of chief troublemaker For the White House, global politics in 2025 appears to remain unpredictable. This unpredictability makes setting priorities even more important.