Why the latest defection to the Reformists could trigger a wave of Tories turning to the Farages party

The defection of former Conservative MP Mario Longhi to the Reform Party is the latest stage in a life-and-death struggle between Nigel Farage and Kemi Badenoch.

Mr Longhis's change was announced by Farage in a flurry of publicity as the centerpiece of a Reform rally in Leicester last night.

It is the latest in a series of regional gatherings planned by Reform – and Badenoch would be right to fear the prospect that Mr Farage could taunt her by unveiling yet more Tory defectors.

A string of Tory names have defected to the Reform Party in recent weeks, including former MPs from the party's right, Dame Andrea Jenkyns and Aiden Burley, as well as ConHome founder Tim Montgomerie and a major former Tory donor, Nick Candy. Not forgetting Raul Braverman, husband of conservative right-wing darling Suella Braverman, who herself remains a major target for Farage and his team.

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But the big prize for the Reform Party would be to attract a truly high-profile Tory rather than just one of many former Tory MPs voted out by voters in July last year or a disgruntled Tory councillor.

At the top of the wish list of some senior Reform Party figures is of course Boris Johnson. But even though Longhi and Jenkyns were both Johnson's main supporters, no one seriously expects the former prime minister to defect.

At least not for now

I plan in The Independent Earlier this week, Reformers hoped to entice some high-ranking Tories to join them, including former Dudley North MP Mr Longhi.

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Longhi is not the first to do this and, as things stand, I would not be surprised if others followed him and followed suit in quick succession.

With the Conservatives in total disarray after a crushing defeat in July, Badenoch's party is fighting bitterly with Reform Farages to become the main right-wing opposition to Labor at the next election.

We are in uncharted territory. Never before have the conservatives had a serious competitor on the right. And, as things stand, they seem ill-equipped to deal with this new phenomenon.

The two rival parties' recent spats over who had more members were just the opening salvo.

Badenoch can at best consider the first round a draw, but Longhi's defection to the Reform Party marks a second round victory for Farage and Co.

If further Tory defections follow, Badenoch will have to draw on all his formidable reserves of resistance to avoid a political knockout. If she does not do so, there will be a risk of a stampede of former Tories heading to the Farages banner.

Names like former MPs Tom Hunt, Brendan Clarke-Smith and Miriam Cates are regularly mentioned as potential defectors. Even Farages' arch-conservative but close friend Jacob Rees-Mogg, another Johnson ally, is another target.

What about former minister Nadine Dorries? She is yet another Johnson ally who appears to dedicate her life to getting revenge on him, particularly targeting Ms. Badenoch as an alleged conspirator in his downfall.

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Then there are the MPs who are in the crosshairs of the Reformists. Rumors continue to die down about Ms Braverman or former leadership candidate Robert Jenrick. What remains of die-hard Brexit supporters could also disappear, although MPs like Mark Francois and Andrew Rosindell say this is not the case.

If Johnson were to defect, it would be because the flood of candidates had become a torrent and there was no hope for the old party.

If Ms Badenoch wants to prevent this from happening, she must confront the Reform threat now with ideas, policies and a reason to keep her party together. This does not mean adopting Farage's right-wing populist rhetoric and free-for-all policies, but rather a genuine centre-right offering in British politics.

But until then it seems that, like nature, the Conservatives and the party's natural electoral base hate the vacuum and there is a significant risk that Farage could fill it.