Five years after Brexit, the UK must restore its relations with the EU

FFive years ago this month, Brexit was over and the United Kingdom ceased to be a member of the European Union. It therefore seems an opportune moment to take stock and weigh the implications for our future, hence our special report.

Let us say at the outset that some of the fears of those who wanted to remain in the EU did not come to pass.

For example, Britain is not isolated in world affairs. We have, in particular, played a leading role in rallying the support of democratic nations for the Ukrainian people in their defense against Vladimir Putin's aggression, for which Boris Johnson, whatever his other failures, deserves praise.

Nor has the union between Scotland and the rest of the United Kingdom been broken. In fact, the prospect of separation seems more distant than ever since Scotland's other independence referendum in 2014.

The status of Northern Ireland has been one of the most difficult consequences of Brexit, but it has so far not led to a return to sectarian violence comparable to that of the past.

As for the real benefits of Brexit, it must be recognized that even the most ardent supporters of the Brexit campaign have difficulty identifying them. It is possible that Britain could have rolled out coronavirus vaccines a little faster than EU member states, as we could act more like a speedboat than an EU tanker, according to the words from Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission.

We also have blue-black passports; a symbol that matters to many people, although, as with vaccination, we probably could have gone our own way under European law.

The most striking dividend of Brexit that has failed to materialize is lower immigration. The Independent has always been in favor of a healthy level of immigration and has therefore hailed free movement within the EU as one of the great benefits of membership.

We have, however, reluctantly accepted that the majority of the British people have a different view and that the government of Mr Johnson, the leader of the Leave campaign, has the right to restrict immigration after Brexit. We were as surprised as most Brexit voters that Mr Johnson managed to quadruple net immigration. Even for The IndependentPerhaps this is too much of a good thing, and we are relieved that the numbers are now heading towards more sustainable levels.

The other big demand of the Brexit campaign was that spending on the National Health Service would increase. Indeed, he did, and to the tune of more than 350 million a week, once scrawled in real terms on the side of the bus.

But it is not because this money was diverted from our payments to the EU. Our net payments to the EU were around half of this amount and, in any case, they continue under the Withdrawal Agreement and will continue until 2065. All we have managed to do is devote a larger share of a smaller national income to funding an NHS which is still struggling to recover from the shock of the pandemic.

Indeed, we cannot escape the major fact of Brexit: it has left us poorer and we will continue to fall behind where we would have been as an EU member over the years. This may have been the price some Leave voters would have been willing to pay for lower immigration, but it did not happen, hence Nigel Farage's continued role on the political stage.

Some Leave economists, meanwhile, argue that the loss of national income is temporary and that the freedom to trade around the world will ultimately allow us to exploit opportunities that the EU cannot. However, after five years, there is no evidence that such a theoretical advantage can compensate for the loss of trade with the EU.

After five years, the view must be that the best way to make us more prosperous would be to ease trade frictions between Britain and the EU. We do not need to discuss the possibilities of rejoining yet. It will probably take more than five years to convince the EU to consider such a thing. But a softer Brexit and better trading conditions were on offer between 2016 and 2019, if we had given up the almost worthless right to negotiate our own trade deals.

If we are to learn the lessons of Brexit, Sir Keir Starmer should have the courage to propose an ambitious new deal aimed at restoring the closest possible trading relationship, without reconnecting with our most important export market.