Now all the rules are different: Ukraine is preparing for negotiator Trump to enter the negotiations | Ukraine

A new year in Ukraine began much the same way the old one ended: with deadly Russian drone attacks across the country. In kyiv, one person was killed and at least six others injured in the early hours of 2025.

This is the third New Year in Ukraine since the Russian invasion. If 2023 began with high hopes that Ukraine's battlefield gains would push back Russia and lead to total victory, by the start of 2024 Ukraine's military and population were already set up for the long haul. and had few illusions about a quick victory.

The year 2025 now begins with morale at perhaps wartime lows and with the presidency of Donald Trump on the horizon. Trump has said ending the war is one of his top international priorities and named retired US general Keith Kellogg as his special envoy to do so.

A seasoned veteran, Kellogg is expected in kyiv soon and is a more welcome choice for Ukraine than other figures in Trump's orbit who hold clearly pro-Russian views. Kellogg once visited wartime Ukraine and saw first-hand the results of the war in Russia. Ukrainian officials say these visits have often fundamentally changed Western politicians' views on the conflict.

Before his appointment, Kellogg had suggested a policy of threatening to cut off arms to Ukraine if it refused to negotiate with Russia, but to increase them if Russia did not play along. In recent days, he has criticized the Russian attacks on Ukraine, but also chastised Ukraine for actions such as the assassination of a Russian general in Moscow.

The world is closely following the actions of both sides, he wrote on X after condemning the Russian attack on Ukrainian towns over Christmas.

It is this equivalence, which implies a fair fight between two parties with equal responsibilities, that has alarmed some in kyiv and other allied capitals, who say it is an unfair characterization of an invasion brutal attack on a sovereign nation by Russia.

Think of a cage fight. You have two fighters and both want to retire. You need a referee to separate them. And I think President Donald J. Trump can do it, he has a vision to do it, Kellogg said during a recent television appearance.

Vladimir Putin, alongside Donald Trump in 2019, recently praised the new US president for his courage during the election campaign after surviving an assassination attempt. Photograph: Susan Walsh/AP

Although these statements are poorly received in kyiv, it is clear that Ukraine desperately needs a change in dynamics. Russia continues a fierce offensive and kyiv struggles to mobilize enough men to hold the front line. Last month, two sources from Ukrainian air defense units told the Guardian that the situation was so bad that trained air defense operators had been ordered to the front to join infantry brigades.

Added to this is growing frustration with the Biden administration, with many in kyiv saying decisions to support Ukraine have been too slow and incremental to make a difference, while in Washington there has been the feeling that Volodymyr Zelensky's administration did not want to cause difficulties. political choices such as lowering the age of mobilization.

As Biden's term draws to a close, mutual irritation has at times spilled over into the public domain and led many in kyiv to quietly welcome the prospect of a White House with Trump, even though all signs indicate that it could be much more difficult for Ukraine. On the other hand, there is a clear feeling that, in a completely new political context in Washington, Ukraine is entering the unknown at the very moment when the situation on the front is most difficult.

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Ukraine enters the unknown just when the situation at the front is most difficult

It's a bit like when you're playing a video game and you've spent hours progressing through the levels and you finally know how to navigate it, a security source in kyiv said of the troubled relationship but productive between Ukraine and the Biden administration. Now all the rules are different and it will be difficult to relearn them.

Last May, when the Guardian interviewed Zelensky, he said his plan for a Trump presidency would be to try to impose on the new American leader that he would be a losing president if he took Vladimir Putin's word on his desire for peace. that the Russians had played him.

Today, Zelensky is trying a different approach, making statements that seem calibrated to appeal to Trump's sense of himself as a dealmaker. Trump can be decisive He has the necessary qualities to be decisive in this war, he is capable of stopping Putin or rather helping us to stop Putin, he said Thursday in an interview on Ukrainian television.

Former US Army General Keith Kellogg has been appointed special envoy to Ukraine by new US President Donald Trump. Photograph: Carlos Barra/Reuters

Putin also flattered Trump, praising his intelligence as well as his courage after the assassination attempt during the election campaign.

There's a reason Putin calls Trump smart, too, said Tatiana Stanovaya, a Russian political analyst. It's a game to play with Trump: you're smart, you're not stupid. You understand how to do things.

As both leaders wait to see what Trump's Ukraine policy will look like, there is no indication that Moscow or kyiv are prepared to make anything resembling the kind of concessions that the other side would consider the minimum required for the peace.

Putin wants to seize, at a minimum, the territory he already controls, and also has demands for Ukrainian neutrality and disarmament that would be impossible for any Ukrainian leader to achieve politically. Zelensky, meanwhile, admitted that painful compromises might be necessary, but insisted that in exchange he would need some form of meaningful security guarantee against further escalation by Russia, such as a promise of NATO membership or Western peacekeepers on the ground. Neither option currently seems likely.

A senior Western defense official, who left office but remained in contact with his Ukrainian counterparts, said there was little sign Ukraine was prepared to make concessions without such promises: guarantees Western security concerns will be crucial in any peace talks. Without these guarantees, what would stop Putin from invading again in a few years?

Additional reporting by Pjotr ​​Sauer

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