5 major challenges that will mark China's agenda in 2025

Trump has already threatened China and other countries with 60% tariffs, suggesting a continuation of the ongoing trade war he started during his previous presidency.

A more adversarial relationship with the United States will pose a significant challenge for China, but Beijing is not unprepared, having learned lessons from the previous US trade war.

This can be seen in the fact that Chinese companies like Huawei have attempted to reduce their dependence on American markets and technologies, while expanding into other areas.

Similarly, China has been more willing to resort to punitive measures against the United States, as recently demonstrated by its restriction on the export of rare earths (used for batteries and catalytic converters).

As a result, Beijing is better positioned to wage a trade war than in 2017.

Although tariffs are likely to attract the most attention, another battle may take place over China's technological development, which poses a notable challenge to U.S. trade supremacy.

Technology has become an increasingly crucial element in China's planssince Beijing seeks to increase employment and production in this sector, in part by increasing its exports.

Likewise, limiting this sector has become a priority for the United States, as evidenced by its efforts to restrict China's access to semiconductor technology, one of the key new fronts in the battle.

In addition to a competition to master key technologies, it is also a competition to set the standards of technology.

This is evidenced by the so-called “Beijing effect”, whereby China seeks to establish standards for digital infrastructure, in the same way that the European Union (EU) has done for the management of data and confidentiality through its GDPR (General Data Protection). regulation).

Such a move could potentially give China strategic leadership in the world of technology.

China faces a similarly complex trade conflict with Europe, which has taken the form of a series of retaliatory tariff measures: Beijing imposed tariffs on French brandy, for example, in response to the restrictions of the EU on imports of Chinese electric vehicles to EU Member States. block.

These tariffs are being imposed at a time when China is beginning to make inroads into technologies that were previously the exclusive domain of other countries.

A trade war with the EU, added to recent discussions on expanding NATO's role in Asia, could represent a headache for Beijingespecially if it leads to greater alignment between Brussels and Washington.

But Trump's established antagonism toward the EU could potentially work in China's favor, if it means the European bloc seeks other partners.

On the face of it, Russia has become increasingly vital to China as a source of natural resources and markets, while China is a key source of economic support for Moscow.

However, This support has had a negative impact on China's relations with European states.some of whom view Beijing as a facilitator of Russia's war in Ukraine.

Likewise, Russia's invasion of Ukraine and ongoing war could continue to provide a useful diversion for Beijing, shifting U.S. attention away from China.

Trump's proposed peace plan for the Ukraine war, if successful, could allow the United States to refocus on China. A resolution of this conflict could even open the way to a rapprochement between Washington and Moscow, which would work against Beijing.

An emerging source of concern for China is the serious instability in the Middle East.

As in the case of Russia, the region has become a key source of resources and markets for Beijing, as demonstrated by the Zhuhai air event, where regional countries were key customers for Chinese weapons.

Another source of concern for Beijing is the possibility of regional conflict between Iran and Israel, the former being a key source of oil for China.

In the event of armed conflict, these supplies could be interruptedif not completely cut off, which would create more economic problems for Beijing.

Likewise, the resumption of the Syrian civil war has highlighted an area of ​​concern for President Xi Jinping.

Chinese Uyghurs (a predominantly Muslim ethnic group) participated in the forces that toppled President Bashar al-Assad, including within the Turkestan Islamic Party (TIP).

Some TIP members have threatened to use weapons acquired in Syria in the protracted battle for an independent state in China's Xinjiang region, where the Uighurs are based.

In recent years, Xi's forces have arrested around a million Uyghurs, placed them in detention camps and carried out a policy of intensive re-education and surveillance that has drawn international criticism for its tactics and authoritarianism.

While all of these factors suggest that China will face a difficult 2025, there are also signs that Beijing is preparing to ease them. China will notably study the sanctions regime put in place by the West against Russia, which would probably be used against China in the event of a conflict over Taiwan.

Ultimately, what happens in 2025 will be crucial for Beijing decide whether to make new allies, develop new markets, and create new economic forces in technology.

*Tom Harper is professor of international relations at the University of East London.

*This article was published in The Conversation and reproduced under a Creative Commons license. Beam Click here to read the original version.

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