Why Trump's hot and cold hits on China worry India | Donald Trump News

New Delhi, India When China announced the creation of new counties last week, it demarcated borders including swaths of land that India claims as part of Ladakh, a region federally administered by New Delhi.

India was quick to respond with a public protest. The country's foreign ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said New Delhi has never accepted China's illegal occupation of Indian territory in this region. China's announcement, he said, would give no legitimacy to Beijing's territorial claims.

The latest spat between the Asian giants underscores the fragility of the détente they declared along their disputed border in October, after four years of confrontation between their troops. The neighbors have withdrawn many of their troops, although questions about the future of land previously under Indian control but reportedly seized by China since 2020 remain unanswered on both sides.

Now, India-China relations appear poised for another major test, analysts say: US President-elect Donald Trump.

Trump, who effectively launched a trade war with China during his first term, has threatened to impose 100% tariffs on imports from China. But while describing Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi as a good man, Trump also threatened to impose tariffs on India.

As his January 20 inauguration date approaches, Trump appears to have softened a bit towards China, a country central to the business interests of the new US president's ally, billionaire Elon. Musk, who is set to also play a role in the administration. All this is causing unease in parts of the Indian strategic community.

Trump has a tendency to flatter his enemies and destabilize his friends, said Jayant Prasad, a former Indian diplomat.

In November, shortly after winning the US presidential election, Trump said he would save the Chinese social media app TikTok, which he had once sought to ban. Trump also invited Chinese President Xi Jinping to his inauguration. Beijing has neither accepted nor at least publicly rejected the invitation, although some analysts say Xi is unlikely to show up.

On the other hand, it is not known that Trump sent a similar invitation to Modi, with whom the American leader held two joint rallies in 2019 and 2020, in Houston and the Indian city of Ahmedabad. Indian social media is full of memes mocking Modi, suggesting that Foreign Minister S Jaishankar's visit to Washington late last month was to plead with the Trump team to invite their boss.

Trump's ambivalence toward China is troubling New Delhi, said analysts, who warned that an extremely tough anti-China campaign from Washington or a deal with Beijing would be bad for India.

India faces a double danger in the second half. [Trump] term, said Christopher Clary, a nonresident fellow at the Stimson Center and associate professor of political science at the University at Albany.

Trump and his team could be more hawkish than New Delhi's preferences, particularly on trade and investment flows that force India to make choices it would not want to make, he told Al Jazeera. Alternatively, he [Trumps team] could try to conclude a big agreement with China to restore its image as the ultimate negotiator. This would leave India in a bind.

Prasad also said that while he expected India-US relations to remain strong, there could be problems if Trump decides to strengthen ties with Beijing.

In an editorial, the Global Times, mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party, last week argued for a cooperative approach to relations between Beijing and Washington, particularly in areas like technology. The United States, under President Joe Biden, has imposed a series of sanctions and other restrictions on Chinese technology, particularly semiconductors. China responded by imposing its own restrictions, including on exports of essential minerals to the United States.

India, for its part, is trying to overcome uncertainty surrounding Trump's approach to China. Modi is expected to host a meeting between leaders of the Quad group that includes the United States, India, Japan and Australia in 2025, for which New Delhi wants Trump to visit India. Meanwhile, China will host the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit this year, for which Modi may visit.

After clashes between Indian and Chinese troops in Ladakhs Galwan in May 2020 left at least 20 Indian soldiers dead, New Delhi cracked down on Chinese apps banning TikTok. India has increased its surveillance of Chinese investments and infrastructure projects in the country, citing national security concerns. But as inbound foreign investment slowed overall, India's finance ministry made a case for 2024 to encourage Chinese investment again.

Amitabh Mathur, former special secretary of the research and analysis wing of India's foreign intelligence agency, said he believed the United States had been aggressive in its approach towards China in recent years and had managed to position itself as a leading power in the Asia-Pacific region. . Strengthening ties between the United States and India has been at the heart of Washington's pushback against Beijing in the region.

While most experts expect Trump to continue this broad approach, the presence of allies like Musk on his team could temper the US president's actions, some point out.

I think the US pivot to India is unlikely to change in the broader Indo-Pacific context, as it attempts to strike a better deal with China, said Anil Trigunayat, a retired Indian diplomat and strategic analyst. Musk and other industrialists on his team will no doubt try to change his excessive pricing plans.

How much will India want a response?