Delhi poll dates, what's at stake for the three main contenders | News from the political pulse

PAA

Born from the crucible of an anti-corruption movement, the AAP had stormed Delhi in 2013 during its first election campaign, winning 28 of the 70 seats, with a vote share of 29.49%. He then pulverized his opponents two years later, in 2015, when he won 67 seats (leaving only three for the BJP and none for the Congress) with a vote share of 54.34%, a feat that it almost repeated in 2020. falling slightly to 62, AAP maintained a vote share of 53.57% in the 2020 Assembly elections.

But the party, which once presented itself as an agent of change, is now the target of accusations of corruption. Kejriwal himself spent almost six months in jail after his arrest, first by the Enforcement Directorate (ED) and then by the CBI for his role in the alleged Delhi excise scam . He was released on bail in September last year.

Kejriwal's lieutenant and former Delhi deputy CM Manish Sisodia also spent over 17 months behind bars in connection with the excise politics case. Another former minister, Satyender Jain, and Rajya Sabha MP Sanjay Singh were also arrested and released on bail.

Dominating Delhi's political landscape since 2015 and making Punjab its second state in 2022, AAP is the most successful political startup India has seen in the recent past with Kejriwal's welfare model including Mohalla clinics, improvement of public schools, electricity and water subsidies. , the pillar of the party.

It is this Delhi model that helped the AAP capture the vote bank of the poor and lower middle class and take the breath away from the Congress, which once enjoyed considerable support from these sections. The BJP, which enjoys support from the upper middle class, Punjabi and business community, has not suffered a similar erosion in its vote bank.

With the BJP focusing all its attention on attacking the AAP on the issue of corruption and personally targeting Kejriwal for the 'lavish' renovation of the CM's residence, the AAP, for the first time, is facing pressure on the corruption front. Kejriwal once presented himself as an “educated” outsider who had taken the political plunge to fix a broken system.

However, the AAP seems quite confident that its populist and social politics (plus the narrative that the Centre, through the LG, is blocking many projects) will help it fend off the BJP's onslaught.

When it comes to electioneering and ground connection as well, AAP has often proven itself to be second to none. To oust the AAP from power, the BJP also needs to close the yawning gap in its vote share. In 2020, the BJP recorded its best vote share (38.51%) in two decades, but it was still 15 percentage points behind the AAP. The difference in vote share between the two parties was more than 22 percentage points in 2015.

As for the opposition bloc INDIA, of which AAP is a part, the elections are crucial as the Kejriwal-led party is one of its only two constituents ruling in more than one state. Kejriwal has good personal relations with opposition leaders who do not have good relations with the Congress, the de facto leader of the bloc. A third consecutive victory for the AAP in Delhi would strengthen Kejriwal's position within the INDIA bloc and put even more pressure on the Congress. A loss for the AAP would, on the contrary, be a respite for the Congress.

BJP

Except for Punjab, Delhi is the only state in northern India where the BJP has not tasted power in the last two decades. But an examination of the BJP's vote share over the past three decades shows that the party has managed to retain a considerable support base.

Despite being out of power in Delhi since 1998, the BJP has never fallen below a 32% vote share in the six general elections since. In fact, even in 2015, when the AAP won the elections and the BJP got only three seats, the party had a vote share of 32.19%. Five years later, when it won eight seats, with the AAP again winning the rest, the BJP's vote share jumped to 38.51%.

What continues to give hope to the BJP, apart from its consistent vote share, is that since 2014, it has won all seven Lok Sabha seats in Delhi.

Since losing power in 1998, the BJP has lost three consecutive elections in 1998, 2003 and 2008 to the Congress and three in 2013, 2015 and 2020 to the AAP. A major drawback for the party has been the absence of a popular face, compared to Congress's Sheila Dikshit and, since 2013, AAP's Kejriwal.

In 2015, the BJP took a major gamble by projecting Kiran Bedi, the former IPS officer who was a key part of Anna Hazare's anti-corruption movement, as the face of the CM, but the move failed to materialize. worked. Despite the Modi wave sweeping the northern belt, Delhi remained beyond the reach of the BJP.

This time, the party is set to wage its most aggressive campaign in its history in Delhi, with Modi in the lead. The party believes that its vote share among the upper middle class, business and Punjabi communities is intact and it also enjoys the support of a considerable section of Purvanchali voters. And it is now making concerted efforts to penetrate the lower middle class, Dalits and the poor.

In his first two campaign speeches, Modi directly contrasted his government's model with that of the AAP. His aim was to counter key pillars of the PAA governance model, arguing that his government was running a more effective social protection apparatus. Since the AAP first appeared on the political horizon, it has established itself as a party of the common man, with its symbol of the jhadoo or broom signifying this. Modi and the BJP are directly appealing to the slum dwellers who enjoy the benefits of free electricity and water under the AAP government, as well as the rickshaw drivers whom the APP assiduously courts.

After the setback in the Lok Sabha, the BJP showed a commendable ability to bounce back in Haryana and Maharashtra. He would like to extend his winning streak in Delhi to deal a crippling blow to the opposition.

Congress

The rise and fall of the Congress in Delhi is nothing short of dramatic. The party came to power in Delhi in 1998, months after being defeated in the Lok Sabha elections. Even in Delhi, the BJP won six of the seven seats. The only winner from Congress was Meira Kumar from Karol Bagh seat. In fact, Dikshit, who became CM, had lost to BJP's Lal Bihar Tiwari in the East Delhi seat.

But in the November 1998 assembly elections, the Congress won 52 of the 70 seats with a vote share of 47.76% and Dikshit, as the Congress head of government, ruled Delhi for 15 years. This control ended in 2013, when the Congress was reduced to just eight seats, with Dikshit herself losing to Kejriwal.

In 2015, the party suffered a bigger blow as it failed to open its account and saw its vote share drop below 10%, a sharp drop from the 40.31% achieved in 2008 and to 24.55% in 2013.

During the last legislative elections, the party was further relegated to the background, obtaining only 4.26% of the votes while 63 of its 66 candidates renounced their deposit.

Although Dikshit got much of the credit for the party's 15-year rule, the Congress at the time also had a strong organizational structure in Delhi, comprising leaders from almost all communities. It had many satraps, and many of them vied for the position of CM.

Haroon Yusuf and Parvez Hashmi were the strong Muslim faces, Mahender Singh Sathi and Arvinder Singh Lovely connected the party with the Sikh community. Raj Kumar Chauhan and Chaudhary Prem Singh were the faces of Dalits. AK Walia, Ajay Maken, Jagdish Tytler and Subhash Chopra were the Punjabi faces while Ram Babu Sharma was the quintessential Bania leader and Sajjan Kumar the Jat strongman. Then there were leaders like Yoganand Shastri and Mangal Ram Singhal. Mahabal Mishra was the Purvanchali face of the party.

The decline of the party in Delhi is in a sense the decline of these leaders. Even if Maken is still active, the Congress does not have a credible face in Delhi. His organization has collapsed and there is no vote bank either. Party leaders admit that even Muslims would prefer AAP despite grievances as the community feels that only the Kejriwal-led party is in a position to take on the BJP.

The Congress is also facing much confusion over the identity of its opponent in Delhi. While the AAP has announced candidates for all 70 seats and refused an alliance with the Congress, the grand old party high command is said to be opposed to Kejriwal being personally targeted. A recently announced press conference by Maken aimed at targeting Kejriwal as a “deshdrohi (traitor)” was canceled at the last minute, with Congress sources saying the leaders disapproved of this line of attack on the AAP supremo.

Only a miracle can now save the Congress, which is still suffering from humiliating defeats in Haryana and Maharashtra, when it was supposed to win.