“America First” meets Greenland, Taiwan and the Panama Canal

As the new Trump administration prepares to take office on January 20, 2025, a recalibration of U.S. foreign policy priorities and broader national strategic goals is already underway. Proponents of realism and restraint welcome Trump's emphasis on a foreign policy that prioritizes pragmatism and peace through strength over ideological moralism, even as liberal internationalists fear the policy's effects of America First on multilateral alliances.

Both sides, however, recognize the need to carefully move from crippling foreign policy misadventures and stagnation of ideas to a bold vision of U.S. foreign policy in all theaters of potential competition.

Among the constellation of apparent global security hotspots, three seemingly disparate locations, Taiwan, Greenland, and the Panama Canal, have emerged as serious contenders in the geopolitical realignment of interstate competition for resources, trade, and resources. maritime routes, and political-military domination. The focus is on President-elect Trump's typically loud social media posts during the holidays.

All three, although geographically distant, share a common denominator: China, a so-called stimulus challenge seen as primarily aimed at dislodging U.S. hegemony, supplanting its economic influence, and challenging its military primacy in a global increasingly multipolar. All represent tests for the type of foreign policy Trump says he wants to pursue, while denying Chinese encroachments in key strategic areas.

Taiwan: the hotspot of the Indo-Pacific

Since 1979, the United States has maintained its commitment to Taiwan under the Taiwan Relations Act, which requires it to provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself. However, striking a delicate balance between supporting the island's democratic government, balancing US interests and managing its relationship with China is proving increasingly controversial.

Officially, Washington's policy of strategic ambiguity regarding its defense of Taiwan in the event of an attack by the PRC, while officially following the One-China policy, creates deliberate uncertainty and dual deterrence.

Given growing tensions with Beijing over Taiwan, a growing number of U.S. analysts and officials have called on the United States to rethink strategic ambiguity in favor of strategic clarity. The emphasis on arming Taiwan rather than U.S. military commitment to the island's defense is one of many challenges facing the Trump administration as it hands over European affairs to the Europeans and heads east.

Taiwan lies at the heart of the Indo-Pacific, a region that increasingly defines global trade and international security. Its strategic importance lies not only in its role as a check on Chinese expansionism, but also as a critical node in the global semiconductor supply chain used to manufacture microchips implanted in advanced US military systems and their allies. Given its significant economic leverage stemming from its semiconductor manufacturing wealth, in his September 2024 interview with the Washington Post, Trump said Taiwan should increase its defense spending from 2.6% to 10%. of GDP, prompting a reluctant European and Taiwanese response.

The United States should, however, be wary of unnecessarily amplifying the China threat and sensationalist stories to inflate tensions for greater effect or to impose a particularly Western perspective and preconceptions on China-Taiwan relations. A moderate approach to their bilateral affairs would allow the administration to maintain the credibility of the United States, to take refuge in sober and strategic intelligence and in the assessment of threats, while avoiding at worst a tendentious military confrontation with China , or at best a prolonged diplomatic standoff while bearing the heavy financial and financial burdens. military responsibility for overseas foreign dependencies with tenuous cultural and historical ties to the United States.

For the Trump administration, a reinvigorated Taiwan policy based on diplomatic engagement rather than increased arms sales could serve as both a deterrent against possible Chinese aggression and a testament to the country's commitment. administration in favor of a peaceful, free and open Indo-Pacific.

Greenland: a geostrategic key to a resource-rich future in the Arctic

Greenland is just one piece of a complex puzzle that will define the U.S. and global security agenda and guarantee the United States unrestricted access to vast, untapped reserves of rare earth minerals and hydrocarbons critical to technological and military applications. Its strategic geographic location has attracted the attention of superpowers since World War II and provides unprecedented vantage points for military and surveillance operations, making it a cornerstone of U.S. Arctic strategy.

During the German occupation of Denmark, the United States increased its presence in Greenland to prevent enemy control, establishing military bases in 1941 and investing in cryolite mining, essential for aircraft production. That same year, Greenland became a U.S. protectorate, integrating U.S. forces into the Coast Guard Fleet's Arctic defense efforts. During the Cold War, Greenland's strategic value increased further, prompting the United States to build Camp Century, a secret base housing nuclear weapons capable of reaching the Soviet Union. Although its military importance declined after the Cold War, climate change has revived interest in the region.

Greenland's strategic value and geopolitical importance, which has increased as the changing landscape unlocks the Arctic's vast natural resources and shipping routes, has piqued the Trump administration's interest in purchasing of the island in 2019 and again in 2024, although mocked and dismissed by some as very unorthodox.

Yet, as historical records show, the idea is neither new nor entirely unorthodox. Since 1867, the United States has explored and pursued multiple attempts to purchase Greenland from Denmark, and although the island remains an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark, a 1951 treaty grants the United States significant authority in matters of defence. The administration could pursue a comprehensive strategy to deepen ties with Greenland and Denmark, which retain sovereignty over the island.

Washington has expressed concerns over China's growing focus on the Arctic and Russia's reinvigorated militarization and strengthening of its dominance in the Arctic, and has struggled with policies aimed at restoring the American influence in the region. Investments in infrastructure, scientific research, and economic development could strengthen U.S. influence in the region while thwarting Chinese and Russian efforts to expand their presence in the Arctic through research and dual-use facilities on the island and in the Far North.

A strong US Arctic strategy resonates with Trump's broader themes of economic nationalism and resource security and, although subject to considerable Danish resistance, the proposed Greenland purchase does not in itself merit the ill-conceived ridicule he's received so far.

The Panama Canal: gateway to transcontinental trade

The Panama Canal has long been a critical artery for global trade and U.S. maritime strategy and is a critical asset to the region's economic stability. Since 2017, China's influence over the Panama Canal and massive investments in infrastructure projects in the Western Hemisphere have continued to increase. From the $900 million acquisition of Margarita Island for the Panama-Coln Container Port and a $1.4 billion contract for the canal's fourth bridge to China's operations of the canal's major outlet ports Pacific and Atlantic, including investments in energy facilities, such as natural gas plants. and water management initiatives, China has strengthened its presence in Panama and positioned itself as a strategic economic partner in the region.

The Treaty of Neutrality between Panama and the United States signed on September 7, 1977 guarantees the permanent neutrality of the Panama Canal, equitable access to the canal for all nations as an international transit waterway and prohibits foreign military presence on Panamanian territory, with Panama retaining the sole operational role. and administrative control. The United States, however, reserves the right to use military force to defend the neutrality of the canal. Any real or perceived Chinese threat to the status quo could therefore reasonably provoke an American response.

The Trump administration, however, does not need to be overtly militaristic or aggressive to reclaim its strategic influence over the Panama Canal. Strengthening ties with the Government of Panama, increasing economic investment, and countering Chinese influence by creating incentives, opportunities, and partnerships to modernize canal infrastructure and enhance security of maritime routes would reaffirm the role of the United States. United as guarantor and benefactor of hemispheric stability.

Geography is destiny

Despite their distinct and often disparate policies, Taiwan, Greenland, and the Panama Canal share crucial characteristics that make them essential elements of a strong and resilient United States foreign policy and strategy. They constitute major choke points for trade and military mobility and should therefore rightly be included in any future policy planning by the Pentagon and the State Department.

Through careful diplomacy, economic investment, and military deterrence, the Trump administration could strengthen U.S. leadership while avoiding excessive military spending and morally costly entanglements.

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