The Chinese Communist Party's grip on power is increasingly precarious

Chinese President Xi Jinping delivers his annual televised address new year address on December 31, and commenters were quick to share their interpretation. Some have pointed out Xis passing the reference to Chinese reunification as a threat against Taiwan. Others focused on Xi's comments on the Chinese economy, casting them as a fearful reaction to the re-election of Donald Trump as President of the United States.

However, these stories miss the bigger picture. Xi's New Year speech reflects the growing insecurity of the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) grip on power. This insecurity is evident in the way Xi's remarks, backed by the party's control over Chinese media, have attempted to undermine the Chinese people.

The pillar of Xi's speech was about China's economic success. He stressed that China's economy is thriving and explained that China's total GDP is expected to soon exceed 130 trillion yuan ($17.7 trillion). This is equivalent to a 4.9% increase in GDP over the past 12 months.

Reports on Xi's speech in Chinese media went even further. China Daily, the official newspaper owned by the CCP and often used to communicate the position of the party to the Chinese people, welcomed Xi's encouraging speech and underlined the impressive character of China's remarkable growth rate. An article published on January 1 explained that other developed economies were struggling to achieve average rates of 1.5%.

The positive economic commentary in Xi's speech does not include the reality that China's economy growth has sloweddown from 5.2% in 2023. Although a growth rate of 4.9% is impressive compared to other developed economies, it is disappointing in the context of China's economic growth. China has reached annual growth rates by more than 10% in the 2000s, with GDP even increasing by around 13% in certain years.

A year ago, in his 2024 speech, Xi recognized the challenges facing the Chinese economy. He promised economic interventions that would accelerate growth and promote job creation to combat worrying rates of youth unemployment. However, despite these interventions, China's economic growth continues to slow down and youth unemployment remains high.

Enlighten the Chinese people

It is perhaps difficult to understand why Xi and the CCP admitted to economic difficulties when China's growth rate was higher and celebrated economic success when growth had slowed. But it makes sense when viewed from the perspective of a change of purpose, an act that goes beyond the positive effect that governments give to the economic performance of their country.

Goal change is a form of political enlightenmentin which an established goal is moved toward an easier-to-achieve goal. This has the effect of allowing an unfavorable outcome by the standards of the original goal to be presented as an achievement by the standards of the new goal.

If we take as a result a Chinese GDP growth of 4.9% in 2024, this can be viewed unfavorably compared to China's growth of 5.2% in 2023. However, shifting the target towards a GDP growth of more higher than that of other developed economies, a feat that has never been achieved. It is really doubtful whether China's growth rate for 2024 can be called remarkable in Chinese media.

It appears that the CCP is using its influence and control over Chinese media to emphasize the economic message of Xi's speech. In doing so, he shines a spotlight on the Chinese people by changing China's economic goals to minimize the struggling economy. At the same time, the CCP presents the relative strength of Chinese growth compared to other countries as a success of its economic management.

Since the 1980s, the CCP has relied on twin pillars of the economy and nationalism to maintain the legitimacy of his government. On the economic level, its legitimacy has been reinforced by years of strong growth, which have made it possible to raise more than 800 million the Chinese to escape poverty. But with growth slowing over the past decade, the CCP has turned to nationalism.

The CCP and the Chinese nationalist movement have a symbiotic relationship. The CCP promotes nationalist values in schools and supports nationalist projects throughout China such as historical societies, patriotic statues and museums. This gives nationalist groups a vested interest in supporting the CCP.

However, this the relationship is harmful to the CCP in the long term. The CCP cannot coerce nationalist groups without undermining its own nationalist credentials. This resulted in scenarios in which nationalist groups acted against the wishes of the CCP, including launch cyberattacks both in China and abroad.

The two-pillar model that the CCP has relied on for decades is crumbling. In his previous New Year's speech, Xi took the unprecedented step of acknowledging China's economic woes. Reluctant to stir up nationalist sentiment, the CCP attempted to use the economic pillar by betting on a reversal of the economic situation in 2024. This reversal did not materialize.

The CCP has become increasingly insecure, so Xi's 2025 New Year speech adjusted the targets for assessing China's economic performance. At the same time, the party has encouraged reporting supporting Xi's rhetoric, portraying China's slowing growth and deepening economic woes as a remarkable economic success story.

Lewis Eves is a lecturer in government and international relations at the University of Essex.

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