Politics
Xi Jinping lashes out at economist who questioned China's official GDP figures: Firstpost report
Gao Shanwen, chief economist at state-owned SDIC Securities, suggested that China's real economic growth in recent years could have been closer to 2% per year, not 5% as authorities claim. He is now banned from speaking in public for an indefinite period.
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Chinese President Xi Jinping has reportedly ordered an investigation into a prominent economist who questioned the credibility of Beijing's official GDP figures and criticized the government's economic policies.
Gao Shanwen, chief economist of state-owned SDIC Securities, has been banned from speaking in public for an indefinite period, Washington Post reported citing people familiar with the matter.
Why was Gao rejected?
The move follows Gao's remarks at a forum in Washington last month, where he suggested that China's real economic growth in recent years could have been closer to 2 percent a year, well below the 5 percent announced by the authorities. Gao also expressed skepticism about the government's ability to effectively implement measures to boost growth.
“We don't know the true number of China's real growth,” Gao said at the Dec. 12 event co-hosted by the Peterson Institute for International Economics and a Chinese think tank. He speculated that the actual growth rate could be significantly lower than official data suggests.
Xi was reportedly angered by Gao's remarks, ordering that he be disciplined. Although Gao retained his position, his public engagements were reduced. A planned conference at China's Nankai University was abruptly canceled in January, reportedly due to “scheduling conflicts.”
Chinese GDP: mysterious or misleading?
This crackdown on Gao comes as Beijing seeks to manage growing concerns about its economic trajectory. China's economy faces growing challenges, including a housing crisis that has eroded household wealth by about $18 trillion, growing debt near 300 percent of GDP and industrial overcapacity. Analysts are concerned about the risk of a deflationary spiral.
The China Securities Association recently issued guidelines urging economists to “play a positive role” in interpreting government policies, warning of consequences for those deemed to have made “irresponsible remarks” . The China Securities Regulatory Commission echoed the sentiment but denied broader claims about Gao's situation, Washington Post reported.
Beijing has stepped up efforts to suppress negative commentary on the economy, with senior officials calling for tighter control of economic messages. At a recent meeting, Cai Qi, Xi's chief of staff, called for better “expectation management” to counter pessimism.
Doubts about the reliability of Chinese economic data have persisted for years. Former Premier Li Keqiang relied on alternative indicators such as electricity consumption and freight volumes rather than GDP figures to gauge economic health.
Growing skepticism about Chinese growth
More recently, discrepancies between official data and other economic indicators, such as wage growth and exports, have fueled skepticism among economists.
China's official statistics claim the economy grew 5.2% in 2023 and is on track to achieve similar targets this year. However, Gao's comments suggest a more modest outlook, with potential growth averaging 3 to 4 percent in the coming years.
Such a slowdown would challenge Xi's goal of doubling the country's economic output by 2035.
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