Will Trump intervene to free Pakistani Imran Khan? – The diplomat

Pakistan is abuzz with speculation over the likely stance that US President-elect Donald Trump, who is due to take office on January 20, might take towards imprisoned former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan.

A section of Pakistan, especially Khans Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) workers, believe that Trump might intervene to secure Khan's release. This speculation is also widespread among social media and party supporters abroad, particularly those living in the United States who are lobbying for their imprisoned leader. They hope to persuade the U.S. government to pressure Pakistani authorities to release Khan from prison.

In 2023, a court sentenced Khan to three years in prison for illegally selling state gifts. Additionally, the former Pakistani prime minister faces anti-terrorism charges related to the violence following his arrest in May 2023.

The PTI leadership abroad is optimistic. They point out that there was exceptional camaraderie between Trump in his first term and Khan; the two leaders connected on a personal level. They argue that this report could prompt Trump to actively engage in efforts to free Khan from prison.

Speculation has gained momentum with Trump's new envoy for special missions, Richard Grenell, expressing support for the imprisoned PTI leader. Grenell tweeted “Free Imran Khan” on November 26, coinciding with authorities' crackdown on PTI protesters marching towards Islamabad's D-Chowk.

In a recent statement, Grenell, a controversial figure known for his offensive and bizarre remarks, claimed that the United States enjoyed stronger relations with Pakistan under the Trump administration, especially under Khan's leadership.

These comments gained traction, fueled by fake AI-generated images circulating on social media showing Trump holding banners calling for Khan's release.

These developments appear to have unsettled government officials in Pakistan.

Talal Chaudhry, a senator from the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, responded to Grenells' remarks by saying the government's position is “very clear: this is our internal matter.” He rejected any possibility of Khan's release based on such statements, insisting that Imran Khan faces charges of corruption and constitutional violations.

Similarly, Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Asif downplayed Grenell's recent messages of support for Khan, emphasizing that the government did not expect the remarks to have any repercussions once Trump takes office on January 20.

I don't think there's any pressure involved, Asif said in an interview when asked about potential pressure from the United States regarding Khan's release after Grenell's appointment.

In American politics, there are different considerations that different individuals and parties have and by which they express their views, but when it comes to government-to-government relations, their expression or interpretation through tweets or such statements is far-fetched. I don't think there will be any repercussions [Grenells tweets] at any level, Asif continued.

Although the PTI may hope and push for behind-the-scenes US intervention to secure the release of its leader, the history of Pakistan-US relations indicates that such interventions rarely take place or are successful for various reasons. reasons.

On the one hand, despite the warm personal rapport between Trump and Khan, relations between the United States and Pakistan largely lacked substance during their tenures at the helm of the country.

Relations initially became strained when Trump announced a halt to U.S. aid to Pakistan, including coalition support funds. For more than half of Trump's term, there was no American ambassador to Islamabad. However, after Trump decided to withdraw his troops from Afghanistan, relations improved as Washington sought Pakistan's help in facilitating negotiations with the Taliban and reaching an agreement in Doha.

Additionally, relations between the U.S. and Pakistani militaries have often helped ease pressures that political leaders in Washington might exert, even in times of tense diplomatic relations. Pakistan's relationship with the United States is also deeply embedded in US bureaucratic and defense institutions, making it resilient to changes in political sentiment or lobbying by activists from any party.

Trump has threatened to impose high tariffs on a number of countries, including China, India and the United States' European allies. This could have negative implications for the US economy, triggering challenges for Trump 2.0.

Therefore, it seems unlikely that he will have the time or inclination to invest in supporting Khan, especially given the minimal US interest in Pakistan at present.

It is also curious why the United States would consider supporting a leader who has already built his political narrative and gained popularity by criticizing Washington for its perceived role in his ouster in 2022. In fact, Khan's narrative may have be contributed to the growing unpopularity of the government. United States in Pakistan.

Furthermore, it would be irrational for the United States to jeopardize its relationship with the Pakistani state, particularly the military, an ally with a proven track record of supporting a politically unstable and unpredictable figure like Khan.

The US State Department has made it clear that decisions regarding legal proceedings against the former Pakistani prime minister will be made by Pakistani courts. A spokesperson said: “We do not comment on congressional correspondence…legal proceedings against the former prime minister are a matter for Pakistani courts.”

Although PTI supporters may speculate about possible intervention by Trump for the release of Imran Khan, such negotiations between the United States and Pakistan, or an official position reflecting this, are very unlikely.

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