economists cast doubt on Chinese figures at conference that made Xi Jinping blush

Economist Gao Shanwen was among the participants at the seventh edition of the China Economic Forum organized by think tanks Peterson Institute for International Economics and China Finance 40 Forum in the US capital a few weeks before Christmas.

Topics discussed at the conference in Washington DC were how economic relations between the United States and China will evolve as Donald Trump begins his second term in the White House and the future prospects for the economies of both countries.

It was during a round table on this last point that Gao made statements that would have infuriated the Chinese president, according to The Wall Street Journal.

We don't know the real numbers, Gao said of China's economic growth.

I guess the actual figure for the last two or three years has averaged around 2 percent, although the official figure is closer to 5 percent, continued Gao, who is chief daily economist at SDIC Securities, a public company.

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The company advises the Chinese authorities on economic matters.

Kinas President Xi Jinping shave. Photo: Pablo PORTIUNCULA / AFP

Will be very opportunistic

In addition to questioning China's economic growth, the economist questions the ability of Chinese authorities to implement the necessary measures to strengthen growth. This should not have gone down well with Xi Jinping either.

Their measures to stimulate the economy will be very opportunistic. I don't think they can be sure that they will be able to keep their promises, the chief economist said of the Beijing authorities.

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Gao is now banned from speaking publicly for an indefinite period, but the economist will retain his position until further notice, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Many ended up getting into trouble

Gao is not the first Chinese economist to fall foul of Xi.

In September, the Wall Street Journal wrote that Zhu Hengpeng, who was most recently deputy director of the economics department at the Chinese State Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) and a member of a university-affiliated think tank Tsinghua, from the country's capital, had not been seen in public since April.

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According to the newspaper, the reason for his disappearance is that Zhu made derogatory remarks about President Xi Jinping's management of the Chinese economy in a private group on the messaging service WeChat.

Will ease monetary policy

China is going through difficult economic times.

Authorities in Beijing have struggled to revive an economy that is, among other things, weighed down by the country's real estate sector and high youth unemployment. Several international financial institutions have revised their growth forecasts downward.

In December, the Chinese Communist Party's worst organ, the Politburo, met to review fiscal policy for 2025. After the meeting, the country's official news agency, Xinhua, published a message saying that consumption and investment were slowed down to accelerate domestic growth. demand in China.

China's announcement of a relaxation of its monetary policy was immediately well received on the country's stock markets. In its most recent forecast, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates China's economic growth at 4.7% in 2025.

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