With Trump in the White House, China and Latin America may attempt to forge even deeper relationships.

Days after Donald Trump's election victory in November 2024, Chinese President Xi Jinping participated in a ceremony to open a deep-water port in Peru as part of a diplomatic blitz across Latin America.

Xi's presence was a symbol of China's growing influence in the region. The port of Chancay, financed by China (2.8 billion), represents an expansion of relations between China and Peru. The two countries also signed an agreement to expand free trade. Xi said it was the start of a maritime version of China's Belt and Road Initiative, aimed at expanding its trade and influence globally.

The first Trump administration opted for a confrontational stance toward many countries in the region, including Peru. This ultimately pushed it to deepen its alliance with China. Beijing saw the opportunity, through favorable trade deals and investments, to position itself as a more reliable and advantageous partner than Washington.

Over the past 20 years, China has significantly expanded its role as a leading trading partner for Latin America. In 2002, trade between China and the region was worth 18 billion US dollars ($14.34 billion), this amount increased to 500 billion US dollars by 2023. In the first two months of 2024, Chinese exports to the Latin America increased by 20.6%.

Trump's first term was widely seen as having distanced Latin American nations from American values ​​and alliances and towards China. Brazil, for example, saw trade with the United States fall to an 11-year low, while trade with China increased significantly. Joe Biden did it little to improve relationships.

Trump's campaign rhetoric indicates that the next administration will continue this trend. And China is certainly ready to build on its partnerships in the region if and when opportunities arise.

Trump administration likely to focus on immigration and drug traffickingas well as trade. For example, Mexico is more likely to become a political priority, due to illegal immigration, than Brazil.

Trump could seek regional allies whose policies appear more aligned with his own. Argentine President Javier Milei and Salvadoran Nayib Bukele seem likely candidates, with their brand of populism echoing some Trump.

Despite Brazilian President Jair Bolsanaro's efforts to work with Trump when they were both in power and to echo Trump's phrases, trade between the two countries plummeted. Significantly, during Trump's term three nations the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, and Panama withdrew recognition of Taiwan as a sovereign country, publicly switching allegiance to Beijing and U.S.-backed Taipei.

And then?

In 2025, countries with close ties to China could become targets for the Trump administration. Trump threatened to increase tariffs on Chinese goods and described his tough policy towards China as part of its America first program. China may view the Chancay port as a backdoor to the U.S. market, and perhaps as a way to avoid rising U.S. tariffs. Peru could therefore become a battlefield of commercial relations.

Meanwhile, the assets America First Policyprioritizing US interests, could also lead to a reduction in regional aid.

Reduced U.S. support could lead Latin American countries to seek even stronger ties with China. The latter already actively offers economic investments and supports infrastructure projects through programs linked to Belt and Road Initiative over the last decade. Argentina has even become the base of a Chinese space station.

Belt and Road projects are often considered more attractive aid and investments Western countries, including the United States, because they impose fewer requirements on the country receiving the investment.

Trump's potential disengagement from multilateral organizations, such as NATO and the World Bank, could also strengthen China's influence globally. This U.S. stance would reduce its ability to shape international norms and policies, leaving Latin American countries with fewer reasons to side with Washington.

Latin American countries, which often rely on multilateral institutions such as the Inter-American Development Bank for economic and political support, could look to China to increase their investments. China's diplomatic effortsincluding high-level visits and participation in regional forums, continue to increase, signaling its intention to strengthen ties with Latin America.

Strong economic relations with China will likely continue to attract Latin American countries. This is especially true for those who have experienced economic instability in the post-pandemic period and are seeking new avenues for growth and development.

Above all, the Chinas investments In the regions, the infrastructure and energy sectors have already been important over the last decade. They provided much-needed capital and technology transfers. Such investments not only boosted local economies, but also strengthened diplomatic relations, making China an important partner in the region's development.

China vs. United States

Another aspect of Chinese foreign policy that may appeal to Latin American countries is its non-interventionist approach. This policy emphasizes respect for sovereignty and the right of countries to choose their own development paths.

China presents itself as a alternative to traditional Western powers. This allows China to present itself as a another developing economysuggesting a sense of solidarity with Latin American countries. This contrasts with the United States' complex history of intervention in the internal affairs of many economies in the region.

As Trump continues to emphasize a more isolationist and protectionist approach, countries in the Latin America might find the Chinese approach more compatible with their own policies.

Hostile rhetoric toward many Latin American countries, particularly on immigration, during Trump's first term has left those countries expecting something similar this time around. China appears poised to take even greater advantage of these opportunities.