What will happen if Hamas does not release Israeli hostages before Trump's inauguration?

US President-elect Donald Trump warned in December that there would be a price to pay if hostages held by Hamas in Gaza were not released before his inauguration on January 20.

Trump echoed that warning at a news conference Tuesday, saying all hell would break loose in the Middle East if the hostages were not returned by the time he took office. This will not be good for Hamas. And frankly, it won't be good for anyone, Trump said.

US President-elect Donald Trump warned in December that there would be a price to pay if hostages held by Hamas in Gaza were not released before his inauguration on January 20.

Trump echoed that warning at a news conference Tuesday, saying all hell would break loose in the Middle East if the hostages were not returned by the time he took office. This will not be good for Hamas. And frankly, it won't be good for anyone, Trump said.

But the president-elect has not explained what that means or detailed what action he would take if that deadline is missed. Trump's team did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Foreign Policy on his recent remarks regarding a Gaza hostage deal.

Trump's warnings to Hamas come amid one of the most transformative and chaotic periods in recent Middle East history and raise questions about the president-elect's willingness to become involved in the region after committed not to launch new wars during his election campaign.

Trump's threat is designed to convince Hamas that it is more likely to get a better deal with the outgoing Biden administration than with the incoming Trump administration, and so it should make one now, Jonathan Panikoff, who served as deputy national intelligence officer for the Middle East. East on the National Intelligence Council from 2015 to 2020, told Foreign Policy.

Although there is little additional pressure the Trump administration can exert on Hamas in Gaza, aside from supporting more Israeli strikes in the Gaza Strip, much of Hamas's current leadership is located there. outside Gaza, and the Trump administration could seek to impose additional sanctions on them and their families to try to increase pressure, added Panikoff, who is now director of the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative at Advice Atlantic.

By setting a Jan. 20 deadline for the hostages' release, Trump is trying to put more pressure on the process and create a sense of urgency, said retired Gen. Joseph Votel, who oversaw U.S. military operations in the Middle East since 2016. until 2019 as commander of U.S. Central Command, told Foreign Policy.

Votel, who is now a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, said Trump is unlikely to turn to U.S. military power as a solution if the war between Israel and Hamas still rages on Inauguration Day . Trump could increase his support for Israeli military activities in Gaza to increase pressure on Hamas, Votel said, but with the level of destruction already seen in the enclave, it is difficult to see what more could be done.

One possible step Trump could take would be to support Israel by imposing increased restrictions on humanitarian aid to the enclave, as a close aide to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has requested. However, this would likely draw both domestic and international criticism, and it may not sway Hamas one way or another.

If Hamas was concerned about the suffering of Gazans, this would have been resolved long ago. Its leaders don't care about the suffering they exploit, said Dennis Ross, a former U.S. envoy to the Middle East, in an interview with Foreign Policy. Even if President Trump gives Israel more freedom and does not pressure it on humanitarian aid, it is unclear how this will affect the Hamas leadership in Gaza.

For more than a year, international negotiators have repeatedly failed to obtain the release of hostages and a truce agreement between Israel and Hamas. Mediators from the United States, Qatar and Egypt are currently in Doha, Qatar, continuing negotiations aimed at finally reaching an agreement.

On Thursday, US President Joe Biden, whose administration is working to reach a ceasefire agreement before leaving the White House, expressed cautious optimism that a truce could be reached. We are making real progress, Biden told reporters at the White House. I still hope we can do a prisoner exchange.

Steve Witkoff, whom Trump chose to be his special envoy to the Middle East, arrived in Doha on Friday to join the negotiations. At a news conference at Mar-a-Lago earlier in the week, Witkoff said negotiators were making a lot of progress.

I really hope that between now and the inauguration we will have some good things to announce on behalf of the president, Witkoff said.

Despite this positive message, there is no guarantee that a deal will be reached by January 20.

That's probably slightly better than 50-50 currently for a deal. Many obstacles that previously existed remain. Hamas still wants some assurance before agreeing to a phased approach that the war will end, and Prime Minister Netanyahu still does not want to give that assurance, said Ross, who is now a senior member of the Washington government. Institute for Middle East Policy.

The question of how many live hostages Hamas will release also remains a major sticking point in the negotiations, as does the number of Palestinian prisoners the militant group demands Israel release in return.

Still, the reason I'm putting the deal at a level slightly better than 50-50 is [that] There is a Trump effect, Ross said, adding that Hamas may want to close the deal shortly before Jan. 20, with the belief that if there is a ceasefire before its arrival, the president Trump will not want to see a renewal of the agreement. war after his mandate. Additionally, I think Hamas is under a little more pressure from Qatar, Egypt, and maybe Turkey as well, all of whom are trying to show Trump that they are pushing and getting what they want. 'he wants.

Another question hanging over Trump's push for a hostage deal is whether Netanyahu, who has faced intense criticism from hostage families and has been accused of obstructing ceasefire talks, will be an obstacle. Netanyahu and Trump have always been close allies, but the Israeli prime minister is also trying to hold together his fragile coalition government, and far-right members have threatened to oust him if he agrees to a ceasefire deal.

Trump's Jan. 20 deadline probably doesn't mean much to Netanyahu as long as it isn't seen as an obstacle to a deal, said Panikoff, the former National Intelligence Council official. If Hamas does indeed sign a deal, then the pressure will shift to Prime Minister Netanyahu, as he will do almost anything short of collapsing his coalition to ensure that he enters Trump's second term in good graces with of the president-elect, he added.

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