Biden team urges Trump administration to maintain continuity in the Indo-Pacific

Jake Sullivan, the outgoing US national security adviser, is urging the new Trump administration to continue President Joe Biden's strategy of strengthening ties with Indo-Pacific allies and partners to counter adversaries like as China and North Korea.

“We will make the case to them that the U.S. position in the region is incredibly strong right now,” Sullivan said in response to a question from VOA during a roundtable with reporters Friday.

“There should be more continuity than significant change when it comes to our Indo-Pacific strategy,” he said. “But I don’t know what the incoming team will end up doing.”

Sullivan, considered one of the key architects of the Biden administration's Indo-Pacific strategy, said that the president's approach “works on a large scale,” and he warned that deviating from it “would entail risks.”

Sullivan acknowledged, however, that the administration has failed to make substantial progress toward denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

While the threat from Pyongyang remains more acute than ever, Sullivan highlighted key distinctions: closer cooperation between North Korea and Russia and a “broader alignment of competitors and adversaries: Russia, China, South Korea North and Iran.

He reiterated the administration's warning against reducing U.S. support for kyiv, which President-elect Donald Trump has said he would do. What happens in Ukraine is really important for the Indo-Pacific region, Sullivan said, because “China is watching.”

Biden aides have often expressed concern that the West's reluctance to bolster kyiv's defenses could encourage China to follow Russia's lead and invade its smaller democratic neighbor, Taiwan, or take action even more aggressively over its disputed territorial claims in the South China Sea.

Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the German Marshall Fund's Indo-Pacific program, said cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang has grown rapidly, with North Korea sending its troops to support Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and that it is likely to expand.

“We still need to see what weapon systems or military technologies [Russian President Vladimir] Putin promised to keep his promises [North Korean leader] Kim [Jong Un]”, she told VOA. “Beijing has refused to use leverage to stop this trend.”

Sullivan said he was confident the administration had “created a great opportunity for the next team” to strengthen the U.S. position and had “shifted the balance of power” in the Indo-Pacific.

He described Biden's approach of creating a network of alliances and partnerships, including strengthening cooperation with the Quad, an informal grouping with India, Australia and Japan, as well as deploying the The AUKUS security agreement with the United Kingdom and Australia to provide Canberra with nuclear resources. -propelled submarines to better patrol the waters of the region.

Sullivan also highlighted trilateral cooperation between the United States, Japan and South Korea, with the two former adversaries now working together to deter North Korea's nuclear threat, and between the United States, Japan and the Philippines to repel Beijing's aggression in the South China Sea.

Continuity or change

Given that relations between Washington and Beijing are likely to remain contentious, the region may see greater continuity in U.S. policy toward China under the new administration.

Trump selected two well-known China hawks for key roles in his “America First” cabinet: Sen. Marco Rubio, Trump's pick for secretary of state, and Rep. Mike Waltz, the man that Trump is considering becoming Sullivan's successor.

However, Waltz announced a sweeping directive earlier this week to fire all national security personnel on loan from other departments and agencies who hold apolitical, nonpartisan leadership positions. Waltz said the firings were intended to enforce absolute alignment with Trump's political agenda.

In addition to stocking the National Security Council with Trump loyalists, it is unclear whether the president-elect will employ the same approach of leveraging alliances to deter China.

The first Trump administration found that “multilateral alliances are more of a burden than a reality,” said Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. During his first term, Trump ended U.S. membership in organizations and agreements, including the Paris Climate Accord. Accord, the United Nations Human Rights Council and the World Health Organization.

“If you form alliances, they will have to be based on clear and specific quid pro quo transactions,” he told VOA.

During his first term, Trump also focused more on bilateral relations, and he may return to that approach.

“He could emphasize ties with strong conservative leaders like [Prime Minister Narendra] Modi in India but downplays importance of groups like US-Japan-South Korea trilate[eral]”, especially if the new government in Seoul moves a little further away from Washington,” said Zack Cooper, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.

“What remains unclear is whether Trump will confront China outside of the economic arena,” Cooper told VOA. The main uncertainties concern whether the United States will pursue a less forceful response to Beijing's actions in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea.

“Trump personally seems more open to engagement with [Chinese President] Xi Jinping and has focused on trade issues, but many in his administration will push for a hard line on security and technology issues,” Cooper said.

Change in business strategy

Trade is one area where analysts expect a significant shift in strategy as Trump appears poised to embrace protectionist measures, threatening to use tariffs as a weapon of punishment not only against adversaries but also against regional partners, particularly those with large trade surpluses, including Japan.

Trump is expected to roll back the Biden administration's efforts to revitalize trade with the region. During his presidential campaign, Trump promised to end the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, Biden's 2022 deal with countries in the region, saying it would harm American industry and workers.

The IPEF was Biden's attempt to strengthen economic ties with Indo-Pacific countries, five years after Trump withdrew the United States from the Obama administration's most important trade initiative, the Partnership transpacific, immediately after his first mandate.

The framework pursues non-trade priorities such as supply chain resilience, digital infrastructure security and the transition to clean and sustainable energy. He has been criticized by many in the region for failing to propose market access measures as Beijing aggressively expanded its economic influence, including through the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, the largest free trade agreement region in the world which covers almost a third of the world's population and GDP.

VOA's Steve Herman contributed to this report.