Four Ways This Saga Could Play Out

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Donald Trump's son Donald Jr recently visited Greenland

In recent weeks, US President-elect Donald Trump has shown renewed interest in taking control of Greenland, a largely autonomous territory of Denmark in the Arctic and the world's largest island.

He first indicated his intention to buy Greenland in 2019, during his first presidential term, but this week he went further, refusing to rule out the possibility of economic or military force to take control. .

Danish and European officials responded negatively, saying Greenland was not for sale and its territorial integrity must be preserved.

So how could this unusual situation play out, with two NATO allies at odds over a huge territory covered in 80% ice but with considerable, untapped mineral wealth?

And how could the independence aspirations of Greenland's 56,000 inhabitants, under Danish control for 300 years, affect the final outcome?

Here we look at four possible scenarios for Greenland's future.

Trump loses interest, nothing happens

Some speculate that Trump's move is just a bluster, a move aimed at getting Denmark to strengthen Greenland's security in the face of the threat of Russia and China seeking influence in the region.

Last month, Denmark announced a new $1.5 billion (1.2 billion) military program for the Arctic. It had been prepared before Trump's remarks, but the announcement hours after them was described by the Danish defense minister as “an irony.”

“What was important about what Trump said was that Denmark must fulfill its obligations in the Arctic or it must let the United States do it,” says Elisabet Svane, the newspaper's chief political correspondent. Politiken.

Marc Jacobsen, associate professor at the Royal Danish Defense College, believes this is a case of Trump “positioning himself before taking office”, while Greenland uses the opportunity to gain more authority internationally, as an important step towards independence.

So even if Trump were to lose further interest in Greenland now, which Professor Jacobsen sees as the most likely scenario, he has certainly brought the issue into the spotlight.

But Greenlandic independence has been on the agenda for many years, and some believe the debate could even go in the opposite direction.

“I have noticed in recent days that the Prime Minister of Greenland is calmer in his comments – that is, we want independence, but in the long term,” says Svane.

Reuters

Greenland votes for independence and seeks closer ties with the United States

There is a general consensus in Greenland that independence will eventually come about and that if Greenland votes for it, Denmark will accept and ratify it.

However, Greenland is also unlikely to vote for independence unless its people are guaranteed that they can keep the subsidies they currently receive from Denmark to fund things like healthcare and the system. social protection.

“Greenland's prime minister may be angry now, but if he calls a referendum he will need some sort of compelling narrative on how to save Greenland's economy and welfare system,” Ulrik Gad, senior researcher at the Danish Institute for International Studies, told the BBC.

A possible next step is free association – something like the United States currently has with the Pacific states, the Marshall Islands, Micronesia and Palau.

Denmark has already opposed this status, both for Greenland and the Faroe Islands, but according to Dr Gad, current Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen is not categorically opposed to it.

“The Danish understanding of Greenland's historical experience is much better than it was 20 years ago,” he says, with Denmark accepting its colonial responsibility.

Recent discussions “could persuade [Frederiksen] say: it is better to keep Denmark in the Arctic, to maintain some sort of link with Greenland, even if it is looser,” he adds.

But even if Greenland manages to get rid of Denmark, it has become clear in recent years that it will not be able to get rid of the United States. The Americans never really left the island after taking control of the island during World War II, and consider it vital to their security.

A 1951 agreement affirmed Denmark's basic sovereignty over the island but, in effect, gave the United States everything it wanted.

Dr Gad said Greenland officials had been in contact with the last two US administrations about Washington's role.

“They know now that the United States will never leave,” he said.

Trump intensifies economic pressure

There has been speculation that Trump's economic rhetoric potentially poses the biggest threat to Denmark – with the US dramatically increasing tariffs on Danish and even European goods, forcing Denmark to make concessions on Greenland.

Professor Jacobsen says Danish governments have prepared for this, and not just because of the Arctic territory.

Trump has threatened to impose universal 10% tariffs on all US imports, which could, among other things, significantly disrupt European growth, and some Danish and European companies are now considering establishing production bases in the states -United.

Possible options for raising tariffs include invoking the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977, Benjamin Cote of the international law firm Pillsbury told the website MarketWatch.

One of the main Danish industries potentially affected by this situation is the pharmaceutical sector. The United States receives products such as hearing aids and most of its insulin from Denmark, as well as the diabetes drug Ozempic, made by the Danish company Novo Nordisk.

Analysts say the price increases that would result from these measures would not find favor with the American public.

Trump invades Greenland

The “nuclear option” seems far-fetched, but since Trump is not ruling out military action, it must be considered.

Essentially, it would not be difficult for the United States to take control, given that it already has bases and numerous troops in Greenland.

“The US already has de facto control,” says Professor Jacobsen, adding that Trump's remarks seemed ill-informed and he did not understand the point.

That said, any use of military force by Washington would create an international incident.

“If they invade Greenland, they invade NATO,” says Svane. “So that's where it stops. Article 5 would have to be triggered. And if a NATO country invades NATO, then there will be no NATO.”

Dr. Gad says Trump is like Chinese President Xi Jinping talking about Taiwan or Russia's Vladimir Putin talking about Ukraine.

“He says it’s legitimate for us to take this land,” he said. “If we really take it seriously, it bodes ill for the entire Western alliance.”

Additional reporting by George Sandeman

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