Politics
Why did Egypt abandon Syria during the latter's revolution? – notice
Egypt's deafening silence in the face of the revolution in Syria – a country that has historically been its ally for decades despite the ups and downs of their relations – speaks volumes about the fears of al-Sisi's regime. These fears include the potential domino effect of revolutionary movements spreading to Egypt and, more importantly, the growing power of Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Turkey's territorial and religious ambitions, supported by Qatar's financial resources.
Surprisingly, and in light of the dramatic events in Syria, Egypt has maintained a relatively lukewarm stance, limiting itself to empty statements about its commitment to Syria's territorial integrity. This is a surprisingly muted reaction from a country that had been Syria's partner in significant actions over the past decades.
For many years, Egypt and Syria shared Soviet patronage, briefly formed a short-lived and failed union (the United Arab Republic), fought monumental battles against their common Israeli adversary, and later clashed over of the peace treaty between Egypt and Israel. After many years of separation, largely due to the repressive regime of Bashar al-Assad, their relations have warmed again. How could Egypt then abandon Syria and refrain from helping it?
The solution to this conundrum lies in understanding Egypt's relationship with Turkey – once nicknamed the “sick man of the Bosphorus”. Egypt, with its illustrious pharaonic history, served as a central religious center under the auspices of Al-Azhar University and contributed significantly to the development of Islamic orthodoxy.
Even during the Ottoman period, when Egypt was administratively subordinate to the Ottoman Sultanate of Istanbul, Egyptians viewed the Turks as culturally and religiously inferior, believing that they provided the human capital that the Ottoman Empire lacked.
Modern Turkey, established on the ruins of the Ottoman Empire under Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, has continued forced secularization and emphasized Turkish nationalism rather than Arab identity. Islam was relegated to a strictly controlled sphere, confined to the confines of state-supervised madrassas.
The rise of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) under Erdogan, with its aspirations for influence in the Arab world, initially created an apparent opportunity for cooperation between nations, particularly during the brief presidency of Mohamed Morsi, of the Muslim Brotherhood.
However, the rapid fall of Morsi and the rise of Abdel Fattah al-Sisi in 2013 led to a spike in tensions, culminating in a breakdown in relations that lasted a decade. This period was characterized by fierce competition for leadership in the Islamic world, as well as economic and military struggles in the Middle East, the Eastern Mediterranean, and even Africa.
Conflicting interests between Turkey and Egypt
Turkey and Egypt have many conflicting interests that could lead to further crises. Egypt, alongside Israel, Greece and Cyprus, controls vast gas deposits off their coasts, benefiting from ownership based on the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (EEZ) . Turkey rejects this arrangement, particularly with regard to Greece, but also with regard to Egyptian activities in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Additionally, the two countries are at odds over Libya. Egypt supports General Khalifa Haftar in eastern Libya, while Istanbul supports the national unity government in the west, led by Fisent al-Sarraj, apparently to justify Turkey's maritime claims.
Neo-Ottoman Islamist Turkey is also expanding its influence in Africa and recently brokered a ceasefire agreement between Ethiopia and Somalia. The development could hurt Egypt in its dispute with Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, potentially triggering a war between the two nations.
Turkey's potential success in overthrowing the Assad regime and its efforts to gain military and economic control of Syria – with the support of Qatar – pose significant challenges for Egypt. The possibility of a resurgence of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, coupled with the country's deep economic crisis, limits its ability to focus on Syria, which Erdogan increasingly seeks to dominate.
For Israel, which has often benefited from bipolar systems in the region, this development does not bode well.
The writer is a Middle East expert and a former professor at Bar-Ilan University and Netanya Academic College.
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