Trump will put the United States and China back on a collision course

By Ian Bremmer

NEW YORK – US President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping have managed to contain tensions between the United States and China in 2024. But when Donald Trump returns to the White House this month, he will end this fragile stability and will lead to unmanaged decoupling of US-China relations. the most important geopolitical relationship in the world and increase the risk of global economic disruption and crisis.

Trump will begin his second term by announcing new tariffs on Chinese goods, with the aim of imposing a new economic deal on China. Although the new tariffs will not reach the 60 percent across-the-board rate he threatened during the campaign, the maximum rate on all Chinese imports is expected to double, to around 25 percent by the end of 2025 Chinese leaders will respond more forcefully and offer fewer concessions than during Trump's first term, despite the continued weakness of the Chinese economy.

After all, Chinese leaders fear that a conciliatory approach would be seen as an acceptance of national humiliation, which would further fuel China's already growing public anger. If a more constructive approach towards the United States in 2024 has only brought the return of “Tariff Man,” why stick with this path? Trump's threats are just the latest aggressive move by the United States, confirming Chinese suspicions that American policymakers intend to contain China's emergence as a great power.

The most sensitive topic in US-China relations is technology policy. China opposes what it sees as U.S. attempts to freeze its technological development and slow its economic growth. Trump's security team will add more Chinese companies to the U.S. Commerce Department's “entity list,” making it harder for them to access U.S. technology, and expand export controls to more economic sectors.

For example, Trump will also follow the Biden administration's lead in restricting the export of advanced computer chips to Chinese technology companies. China has already shown its willingness to retaliate against such measures by limiting its exports of essential minerals and the technology used to process them. These minerals are essential to the production of a wide range of modern technologies, including electric vehicle batteries, computers and consumer electronics, as well as many products that the United States considers essential to its own national security .

Even though Taiwan is not at risk of being invaded by China in 2025, disputes over the island will almost certainly make Sino-US relations more toxic this year. Trump himself does not seem interested in Taiwan. But the most hawkish members of his administration, including Marco Rubio, his nominee for secretary of state, and new national security adviser Mike Waltz, will push not only for closer ties between the United States and Taiwan, but also for a more explicit guarantee from the United States regarding the security of Taiwan. This is a bright red line for China.

For now, Chinese leaders believe their pressure tactics have kept Taiwan's nationalist President William Lai in check, and they are probably right. With Taiwan's economy remaining strong, Lai does not need to provoke China to boost his public popularity.

But if China believes that Taiwan has made substantial progress toward greater de facto independence, or if the United States crosses one of China's other red lines (for example, if Rubio visits the island or if U.S. ships drop anchor in a Taiwanese port), China could decide on a military escalation. This could take the form of a naval blockade or the seizure of one of Taiwan's outer islands. Moreover, these risks will only increase as Taiwan's 2028 elections approach and as China steps up pressure to prevent another Lai victory.

Neither China nor the United States wants a crisis in 2025, as Xi and Trump hope to focus on their domestic policies. Xi faces serious economic challenges, growing concerns about social stability and a military leadership in disarray. Trump wants to avoid any problems that could sink the U.S. stock market and hopes to strike deals that will boost confidence in his leadership. With a unified government and consolidated control of his party, Trump is in a better position than Biden ever was to ensure that the United States speaks with one voice.

The problem is that there is no basis for a deal that would strengthen the broader U.S.-China relationship. Xi's government could offer to buy more U.S. agricultural products and energy exports, and could make life easier for U.S. companies wanting to do business in China. Additionally, Xi can greenlight more Chinese investment in the United States and even take a more active role in pushing for a ceasefire in Ukraine.

Such constructive gestures will not satisfy Trump and his administration's hawks, who believe China's rise is bad for the United States. Trump's determination to tighten pressure on China and its ailing economy will push Chinese leaders in the opposite direction.

At the same time, two wild cards could affect US-China relations this year: Trump himself and his new favorite adviser, Elon Musk. Trump could try to build a better personal relationship with Xi, and Musk's extensive business interests in China could make him a useful intermediary. But the forces that separate the United States and China are much stronger than these two possibilities allow.

The effects of the upcoming breakdown in relationships will be felt around the world. Most countries are not interested in a new Cold War, making it unlikely in the short term. But major U.S. allies and trading partners, such as Japan, South Korea, Mexico and the European Union, may increasingly be forced to choose sides — at least in areas related to security – at a significant cost to their economies.

Although neither China nor the United States wants a costly confrontation in 2025, early signals from both sides suggest that an escalation of conflict is increasingly difficult to avoid.

Ian Bremmer, founder and chairman of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media, is a member of the executive committee of the United Nations High-Level Advisory Body on Artificial Intelligence. This article was distributed by Project Syndicate.