Donald Trump helped broker a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas. Can it last?

Donald Trump was characteristically blunt when he first warned in December that there would be hell to pay in the Middle East if Israeli hostages held in Gaza were not released before his inauguration.

The US president-elect's bellicose tone had the desired effect, adding momentum to long-stalled talks and culminating in Wednesday's agreement between Israel and Hamas on a ceasefire agreement ending the devastating war of 15 months in Gaza and releasing the remaining 98 prisoners held in the Gaza Strip. band.

With Steve Witkoff, Trump's New York real estate friend turned Middle East envoy, playing a central role as he shuttled between Qatar, which hosted the negotiations, and Israel, the mediators ultimately achieved success. agreement that has long eluded the Biden administration.

This should mean that the people of Gaza, who endured immeasurable suffering during the deadliest war in their history, will finally have some respite from Israeli bombs and bullets and can tentatively start thinking about rebuilding.

Relatives of the remaining Israeli hostages held since the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack that Israeli officials say killed 1,200 people will begin to hope their nightmare is over, even though many captives are believed to have died. The surviving hostages, who experienced a hellish existence trapped in Hamas' network of tunnels, will be freed if the deal is kept.

The key question is whether it can last. Will this be a temporary pause or will it lead to the permanent ceasefire that mediators, the Palestinians and the region as a whole desperately want?

The remains of the Jabalia refugee camp, which housed around 200,000 people Ziv Koren/Polaris/eyevine

Trump has already claimed victory by helping reach a deal where President Joe Biden failed. But the durability of the truce brokered by the United States, Qatar and Egypt could depend on whether he is willing to continue using U.S. political force, including to ensure that the far-right government of the Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu pushes through the deal.

Trump's new administration is full of staunchly pro-Israel people, and during his first term he has shown little empathy or patience toward the Palestinians as he implemented a series of pro-Israel measures that upended decades of American politics. But the hope is that Trump will now seek to take ownership of the deal and ensure its success.

However, there will be a risk of disruption from all sides, including from Hamas, whose military capacity has been severely weakened, but not eradicated.

The ceasefire agreement is based on a three-phase proposal that Biden first approved in May. It will begin with an initial 42-day truce, during which 33 hostages, including women, the elderly and the wounded, will be released in exchange for an agreed number of Palestinian prisoners. Israeli troops are expected to redeploy away from urban centers and allow aid to flow into the Gaza Strip, which is plagued by famine and disease.

More difficult is the second phase, which aims to lead to a permanent ceasefire, the release of remaining hostages, including Israeli soldiers, and the complete withdrawal of Israeli troops.

In this step, the smallest details of which still need to be negotiated, Netanyahu's commitment will be fully tested.

Supporters of hostages held since the Hamass attack of October 7, 2023 embrace in Tel Aviv after the announcement of the agreement Ronen Zvulun/Reuters

The Israeli prime minister has repeatedly ruled out agreeing to permanently end the war or withdraw his forces from Gaza. Hamas, meanwhile, demanded that high-level prisoners, including those sentenced to life for murder and terrorism, be released in exchange for soldiers being held hostage, a bitter pill for Israelis to swallow.

Netanyahu already faces resistance from his far-right allies and ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich. Smotrich called the deal a capitulation. Ben-Gvir this week called on the first to join him in resigning from the government.

Although the ruling coalition of veteran leaders was strengthened by the arrival of another right-wing party in September, the departure of Ben-Gvir and Smotrich would still leave it with a minority government. That could force Netanyahu into early elections, bringing policy decisions back to the ballot box that he has sought to avoid.

There is still no clarity on the crucial question of who will lead the gang. Neither Israel, the United States nor Arab states want Hamas, which has ruled Gaza since 2007, to regain control, but Netanyahu has not presented a viable plan for the aftermath of the war. He has rebuffed U.S. and Arab pressure to work with the Palestinian Authority, which controls limited parts of the occupied West Bank.

He is outraged against any move towards a Palestinian state, which experts say is the only long-term solution.

The Biden administration has been discussing for months with its Arab partners the possible formation of an international security force that would work alongside a PA-backed interim Palestinian administration, including residents of Gaza, to manage civilian affairs .

US President-elect Donald Trump with his Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff Carlos Barria/Reuters

But the United States would not put troops on the ground and it is unclear who else would, given the risk of being drawn into an insurgency and being seen as doing Israel's bidding. It's unclear whether Trump will come up with his own plan, or even whether he has thought about the future of Gaza beyond his inauguration day.

Yet the needs of Gazans could not be more urgent. The Israeli offensive has killed more than 46,000 people, according to Palestinian officials, including civilians and fighters. Entire families were wiped out and a generation of children were orphaned and scarred for life.

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Schools, hospitals, homes, offices and businesses were destroyed. The vast majority of Gaza's 2.3 million residents have been forced to leave their homes. Many don't know what they will find when they return.

Trump will likely focus on pushing for a big deal that would lead Saudi Arabia to normalize relations with Israel. But Riyadh insists this could only happen if Israel took irreversible steps towards a Palestinian state.

With Netanyahu and his far-right allies in power, Israel is more likely to want to annex the West Bank or escalate hostilities with Iran than to make concessions to the Palestinians.

Ending the war took nearly a year of negotiations. But compared to the herculean task of rebuilding Gaza, not to mention the long-elusive goal of lasting peace in the region, that might prove to be the easy part.

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