Relations between North Korea and China will remain in flux in 2025

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, left, and Chinese President Xi Jinping walk together during a visit to Dalian, China, May 8, 2018. Yonhap

By Kim Hyun Bin

The Sino-North Korean alliance, the historic cornerstone of Pyongyang's foreign policy, appears to be experiencing unprecedented tensions. As North Korea's strategic embrace of Russia deepens, characterized by military cooperation and growing ideological affinity, Beijing finds itself in a precarious balancing act, foreign relations experts said.

They stressed that bilateral relations have reached a low point, making any significant improvement unlikely in the near future.

“The outlook is not easy to predict due to many variables,” said Professor Park Won-gon of Ewha Women's University. “The main variable is the war between Russia and Ukraine, and the second is the speed and level of the war. [U.S. President Donald] Trump, as he announced, is establishing a channel of communication with Kim Jong-un. These are two key factors. »

Park stressed that China's stance of non-intervention in the Ukraine conflict clashes with North Korea's active military support for Russia. This divergence in strategic approach inevitably created a divide between the two allies.

In October, North Korea deployed around 10,000 troops to Russia to bolster its military efforts in Ukraine. The move brought North Korea financial benefits, meeting its need for foreign currency.

However, the move also raises concerns that North Korea's increasing military capabilities could destabilize the regional security landscape, experts say.

“North Korea is talking about a new Cold War, as Kim Jong-un mentioned recently,” Park added. “At a plenary meeting, North Korea continued to emphasize its bloc politics, which makes China uncomfortable. China opposes the formation of regional blocs and tries to maintain a certain distance from North Korea.

While recognizing China's strategic interest in maintaining North Korea as a buffer zone, Yang Moo-jin, president of the University of North Korean Studies, highlighted the inherent dilemma Beijing faces when it is about balancing its ties with the North and Russia in the context of broader politics. geopolitical competition with the United States.

“China cannot fully rally North Korea to its side nor push North Korea back. As relations between North Korea and Russia become closer, China feels more isolated. This is a situation Quite ironic if North Korea receives advanced military technological support from Russia for military dispatches in return, it could make China very uncomfortable,” Yang said.

“With North Korea potentially strengthening its asymmetric capabilities and conventional weapons with Russian support, China may find it more difficult to control North Korea, which is not a scenario desired by Beijing. The provision of “Russia's conventional weapons support for North Korea would be a major concern for the United States, South Korea, Japan and China,” he said.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, shakes hands with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un during a meeting in Pyongyang on June 19. Yonhap-AFP

In addition to these challenges, experts do not foresee an immediate improvement in relations.

“The situation will likely remain as it is. Relations with China are already at their lowest point, so they are unlikely to get worse,” Park said.

Last year marked the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations between North Korea, China and Russia. In socialist countries, significant anniversaries, such as the fifth or tenth birthday, are held in high esteem. North Korea declared 2024 the “Year of China-North Korea Friendship.” However, there appear to have been significantly fewer high-level exchanges throughout the year than before.

The absence of significant events to commemorate this milestone between North Korea and China is telling. The most critical aspect was the absence of a meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Kim, while in contrast, Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Pyongyang in June and even concluded a new peace treaty. alliance, according to experts.

On June 19, Putin and Kim met in Pyongyang, strengthening the growing alliance between the two nations. It was the first time in more than two decades that a Russian president visited North Korea, signaling deepening military, economic and diplomatic relations.

North Korea has openly displayed its closeness to Russia. For example, the full text of Russian President Vladimir Putin's New Year greetings was featured prominently on the front page of Rodong Sinmun, North Korea's official newspaper.

Meanwhile, a New Year message from the Chinese president was briefly mentioned alongside wishes from other world leaders. Additionally, although North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's response to Putin has been made public, no information has been available on whether he sent a response to Xi.

This disparity in engagement, coupled with reports of increased pressure on North Korean workers in China, paints a grim picture of a relationship on the brink, experts say. Although a complete breakdown is unlikely, the Sino-North Korean alliance, once a pillar of regional stability, now appears to be navigating uncharted and potentially turbulent waters, they added.