Politics
Reeves dodged a bullet but is surrounded by landmines
Thursday January 16, 2025 6:00 a.m.
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Thursday January 16, 2025 8:20 a.m.
After all the excitement over a minister's resignation, it's time to check the government's growth agenda. After all, the fate of individual politicians is irrelevant when compared to the major economic challenges facing the government and the country.
In speaking with City CEOs, particularly those in the pensions and investment sectors, it is clear that they like much of what this government is trying to do.
There is a meeting of the minds that looks like this: Starmer and Reeves have a particular vision of the company, based on the idea of “partnership” and long-term strategic decisions. Closing deals worth billions, leading a grand industrial and economic strategy, pulling big levers and planning major infrastructure projects all represent comfortable territory for Labor ministers. Boris Johnson was attracted to the same approach. In the City, entire industries rely on precisely this approach.
Asset managers, pension funds and some investors are therefore fully aligned with what constitutes the government's long-term economic strategy. For this reason, the city is home to perhaps the largest number of government supporters that it is possible to find in the business world.
This dynamic is not unusual, but it is made interesting by the fact that it is at odds with other sectors of British business. In low-margin, high-staffing sectors, such as retail and hospitality, it is now recognized that more immediate government policies (as opposed to those that will not bear fruit for many years) will make life much more difficult.
Survey after survey reveals how prices will rise, wages will stagnate, jobs will disappear, costs will rise and profits will shrink. These are the consequences of the Budget that economists are watching closely, even if inflation falls and gives the Chancellor some breathing space.
The fear is that it will rise again, perhaps as much as 3 percent this year, which would reduce the likelihood of rate cuts and prolong the stagnation that some already fear. Reeves may have dodged a bullet with yesterday's inflation numbers, but she's still surrounded by landmines.
The government is banking on economic growth in the future, while stifling it in the present. This is an extremely risky strategy that could leave them in a situation where the resignation of a minister is just a pleasant memory compared to the economic disaster they themselves caused.
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Sources 2/ https://www.cityam.com/a-dip-in-inflation-doesnt-make-up-for-the-damage-labour-has-done/ The mention sources can contact us to remove/changing this article |
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