Who will tame Donald Trump this time? Roll, roll, for the White House traveling circus | Simon Tisdal

Michelle Obama's one-woman boycott of Donald Trump's presidential inauguration on Monday requires no explanation. It's clear that the former first lady has zero tolerance and even less love for a man who revels in racist and sexist behavior. Many others, especially among America's allies in Europe, would also boycott Trump if they could. Yet they will inevitably have to take care of him for the next four years.

Such fear and hatred are by no means universally shared. A poll released last week by the European Council on Foreign Relations reveals that more people in China, India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, South Africa and Brazil welcome the return of Trump only to deplore it. By contrast, citizens of the United Kingdom, France, Germany and a number of other Western European countries are frankly dismayed by the prospect.

This is why holding Obama's nose is an unaffordable luxury for most. Despite the decline of American power and influence, it is simply not practical or feasible to cancel an American president. And clearly, many leading countries think Trump No. 2 could be a good thing for them. Europeans are the only ones excluded. If they refuse to play ball, they risk being marginalized and insignificant.

These results contradict outgoing President Joe Biden's bizarre claim that he has strengthened US global hegemony. The world is turning its back on what many see as a hypocritical, US-supervised, rules-based international order. Emerging powers believe that Trump's non-ideological, non-interventionist, nationalist, transactional and self-serving vision is better suited to the times. In truth, this reflects their own approach. For them, he is a necessary agent of change.

Trump's foreign policy, devoid of principles and firm beliefs, could swing one way or the other, for better or worse, for better or for worse.

Is this a miscalculation that they will end up regretting? Charles Kupchan, a professor of international affairs at Georgetown University, suggests that Trump's foreign policy, devoid of principles and firm beliefs, could swing one way or the other, for better or for worse, for better or for worse. The whole game for foreign politicians, diplomats and lobbyists is to lead him in desirable directions, find ways to work with or around him and curb his worst instincts.

For Britain, there is a parallel with former Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, who tore things down but failed to rebuild. Trump is more of a demolisher than an architect. Instead of helping to build a new, better international order, it could well bring down the old one and simply leave the United States and the rest of the world in rubble, Kupchan warns.

These are not mere academic hypotheses. Real lives depend on redirecting or reining in Trump, as, perhaps, does on avoiding global conflict. There is a lot of talk in Brussels about so-called Trump whisperers, who might have the president's ear. The Italian Giorgia Meloni is mentioned. The same goes for Hungary's Viktor Orbn and NATO chief Mark Rutte. None has a decisive influence. What the world needs now is a Trump tamer.

The war in Ukraine is a key test of the good-bad Trump theory. He criticizes the cost of military assistance to Kyiv. He says he understands why Vladimir Putin opposes Ukraine's membership in NATO. He claims he can end the war quickly, but at the cost, apparently, of Ukraine ceding its sovereign territory and rewarding Russian aggression.

On the other hand, Trump knows he cannot afford a damaging repeat of Biden's disastrous abandonment of Afghanistan in 2021. He dare not give the revamped axis of evil, as some have describe Russia, China, Iran and North Korea, a decisive strategic victory. We are therefore talking about an increase, not a reduction, in American aid in the short term, in order to strengthen kyiv's position in future negotiations.

Peace through strength is a goal around which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and European governments are rallying. And if they act on calls from Poland's Donald Tusk and France's Emmanuel Macron to step up collective EU and NATO defense efforts (and spending), there will be a better chance of securing a good Trump for their camp as the endgame in Ukraine approaches.

Trump's instincts regarding Israel-Palestine range from mediocre to terrible. It places the conclusion of agreements with the Arab Gulf states before the establishment of peace. While in power, he treated the Palestinians with contempt, cutting off aid and moving the U.S. embassy to contested Jerusalem. And yet, envious of Barack Obama's 2009 prize and unaware of the irony, he covets a Nobel Peace Prize. He promised to one day reach the ultimate agreement in the Middle East. Maybe he thinks he still can.

Trump does not necessarily embrace the Israeli rights agenda and deplores US involvement in forever wars. Unlike Benjamin Netanyahu, he does not want to fight Iran; we are indeed talking about negotiations with Tehran. He would much prefer Israeli-Saudi normalization. Guided by skillful diplomacy of the type that Britain's Peter Mandelson was sent to Washington to practice, his eventual Trump, if handled well, could become a force for good in the Middle East. For now, it's a toss-up.

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Good Trump invited President Xi Jinping to his inauguration. Bad Trump makes China the scapegoat for all the world's woes

Trump's other major international challenge is China. Will he really impose 60% tariffs on Chinese imports? He surely realizes how damaging and inflationary the ensuing trade war would be. At the same time, he hesitates to defend Taiwan, which Beijing threatens with invasion. Pragmatic and sordid deals between the United States and China are not excluded. Good Trump invited President Xi Jinping to his inauguration. The bad Trump makes China the scapegoat for all the world's misfortunes.

Do or say what they can, European leaders and other Trump skeptics are ultimately spectators of the greatest political spectacle on the planet. If everything goes wrong, the bad Trump will prevail, retreating further into unilateralism, disengagement abroad, broken alliances, contempt for democracy (at home and abroad), capering dictators and stooge Elon Musk's antagonistic trolling of old friends in Germany. Canada and United Kingdom.

If this happens, it's unclear what anyone can actually do about it. Who will tame Trump? A response is urgently needed. But don't ask Michelle Obama. She's out of here.

Simon Tisdall is the Observers foreign affairs commentator

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