Politics
Erdogan sees Trump's new presidency as an opportunity
With Donald Trump returning to the White House on Monday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan sees an opportunity to rekindle what he calls his “close working relationship” with the new US leader. But a Trump presidency could bring risks as well as opportunities for Erdogan.
Erdogan was quick to congratulate Trump on his election victory, making clear his desire to work with him again.
“Donald Trump is a man who acts on his instinct, and Erdogan too,” explains Huseyin Bagci, professor of international relations at the Ankara ministry. Middle East Technical University.
“They are no longer intellectuals like we were, great political leaders after World War II. They are traders. They are very pragmatic and they are political animals. In that sense, they like transactional politics, not values-based policies.
Syria, a priority
Erdogan's top priority should be ensuring the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Syria, where they are supporting the Kurdish YPG militia in the fight against the Islamic State.
Ankara considers the YPG a terrorist group linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which has waged an insurgency in Türkiye for decades.
During his first presidency, Trump promised to withdraw U.S. forces from Syria, although the move was met with strong resistance from U.S. officials.
Sezin Oney, commentator for the independent newspaper Turkeys Policynews portal, said new challenges in Syria make a rapid withdrawal unlikely.
“To prevent the resurgence of ISIS or this HTS from posing a threat to the United States, the Trump administration would have an interest in protecting the YPG and the Kurds, their alliance with the Kurds,” Oney said.
“We already have (US) Vice President JD Vance highlighting the resurgence of ISIS.”
Turkey steps up military action against Kurds in Syria as power shifts
Israel and Iran
The ceasefire between Hamas and Israel could ease another potential point of tension between Erdogan and Trump, with Erdogan being a staunch supporter of Hamas.
At the same time, Ankara and Washington share concerns about Iran's regional influence, which could encourage cooperation between the two leaders.
“The Trump administration is coming with a desire to stabilize relations with Turkey,” said Asli Aydintasbas, an analyst at Brookings Institution.
“We will probably see more and more of the personal connections, personal relationships, that were missing under the Biden administration,” she added. “President Erdogan and President Trump will get along wonderfully. But that doesn't mean Turkey has all its policy options.”
Rebel groups' success in Syria advances Turkish agenda
Combat aircraft and Ukraine
Erdogan also hopes the Trump administration will lift Congress' embargo on sales of advanced fighter jets. Experts suggest Turkey could play a key role in any Trump-led effort to broker a ceasefire in the Ukraine war, given Erdogan's ties to Russia and Ukraine.
“If Trump pushes for a ceasefire in Ukraine between Russia and Ukraine, in this case Turkey could be very useful as a potential mediator,” said Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, head of the agency. German Marshall FundThe Ankara office.
But Unluhisarcikli warned of potential challenges.
“What happens in Syria could pose a test for U.S.-Turkey relations early on. Turkey is currently preparing for a new intervention in northeast Syria against what it sees as a terrorist organization and against what the United States considers to be a political partner.
Economic risks
Trump's previous presidency saw tensions with Erdogan reach a fever pitch after Trump threatened to destroy Turkey's economy over his plan to attack US-backed Syrian Kurdish forces. This decision triggered a sharp decline in the Turkish lira.
With Turkey's economy now weaker than before, analysts say Erdogan will need to tread carefully in his dealings with the new Trump administration.
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