Politics
Turkeys Syria Aspirations
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has stressed the need to grant the new Syrian administration the opportunity to tackle the problem of Kurdish militants operating within its borders. He stressed that Turkish forces would not hesitate to act decisively if this issue was not resolved. The recent collapse of President Bashar al-Assad's regime – brought about by rebel factions, some of which received substantial support from Ankara – has put Turkey's insistence on dismantling and expelling the Kurdish YPG militia.
Turkey's post-Assad vision for Syria combines strategic imperatives, economic objectives and security priorities. With a border that stretches more than 900 kilometers, Ankara views the stability of its southern neighbor as essential to its own. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed this sentiment, saying that while others may view peace in Syria as optional, for Turkey it remains a necessity. For years, Turkey's stance against the Assad regime has combined ideological opposition and calculated strategy. The fall of the regime now offers Ankara a chance to redefine its influence, safeguard its borders and strengthen its foothold in the Middle East. By working with Syria's emerging leaders, Turkey seeks to reshape its regional relations and establish itself as a central power among Arab states.
The Kurdish question is at the heart of Turkey's concerns. The YPG, seen by Ankara as an extension of the PKK – a group responsible for decades of insurgency – is seen as an existential threat. The PKK's campaigns have left tens of thousands dead, strengthening Turkey's determination to dismantle the YPG's influence. However, this effort is complicated by the YPG's role as a key U.S. ally against ISIS. While Ankara hopes that the new Syrian administration will rise to this challenge, the specter of unilateral Turkish military action looms, risking further volatility in the region.
Domestically, Turkey is grappling with the challenges of hosting more than 3.5 million Syrian refugees, the largest such population in the world. While this humanitarian action gained global recognition, it also triggered significant political and social tensions. Economic pressures and growing anti-refugee sentiment have amplified calls for repatriation. Some Turkish local authorities have started to facilitate returns by providing logistical support. Yet prematurely returning refugees to unstable Syria risks sparking further unrest and undermining efforts to achieve lasting peace. Effective solutions require coordinated international efforts, a role that Turkey is keen to uphold.
Syria's reconstruction, estimated to cost hundreds of billions of dollars, presents Turkey with both opportunities and challenges. Boasting a robust construction sector and extensive trade networks, Ankara is well-positioned to lead the reconstruction effort. Projects to restore critical infrastructure, including roads, airports and energy systems, underline Turkey's desire to take matters into its own hands. Additionally, its partnerships with Gulf states such as Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates could facilitate significant investments in Syria's reconstruction, thereby strengthening Turkey's influence. However, these ambitions could face retaliation from Iran, Russia and other stakeholders with vested interests in shaping Syria's future.
Turkey's strategy in Syria has profound implications for regional stability and its relations with world powers. Its quest for an exclusive economic zone (EEZ) with Syria mirrors a similar initiative with Libya in 2019, aimed at strengthening maritime claims in the Eastern Mediterranean. Although these measures strengthen Turkey's position, they risk intensifying disputes with Greece, Cyprus and the European Union. At the same time, Israel's growing military presence in southern Syria poses additional challenges, with Ankara viewing these actions as direct threats to its security and influence. At the same time, Turkey must manage its delicate relationship with Iran, whose ambitions in post-Assad Syria could conflict with Ankara's objectives.
Globally, Turkey's policy in Syria could strain its already tenuous relationship with the United States, especially if Washington continues to support Kurdish forces. Conversely, Ankara’s potential role as a mediator between Syria’s new leaders and international actors could elevate its status as a crucial regional power. Despite these prospects, Turkey faces significant obstacles, including the fragmented nature of the Syrian opposition, deep-rooted sectarian divisions, and the risk of exacerbating instability through military interventions.
Turkey's recognized expertise in infrastructure development – from roads to health facilities – positions it as an indispensable partner in Syria's reconstruction. Collaborative projects with Gulf countries like Qatar and Saudi Arabia, as well as European powers like Germany, could mobilize the vast resources needed for this task. Such partnerships would not only help stabilize Syria, but also strengthen Turkey's economic ties and regional position. On the sensitive issue of Kurdish relations, a move toward negotiation and inclusion rather than military action could redefine Ankara's role. Resolving these tensions diplomatically would ease strained relations with the United States, a key NATO ally.
With the Assad regime now a chapter in the past, Syria's next phase will strongly reflect Turkey's choices, which are poised to influence the region's development. Balancing security needs, economic goals and geopolitical ambitions requires a calculated and flexible strategy. The path Ankara chooses in this sensitive scenario will shape its position in Syria and will resonate across the Middle East for years to come. Turkey's ability to emerge as a stabilizing influence or a source of discord lies in finding the right balance between ambition and pragmatism.
Dr. Gul.i.Ayesha Bhatti
The writer is a current affairs analyst and faculty member at National University of Science and Technology (NUST), Islamabad. She can be contacted at [email protected]
Sources 2/ https://www.nation.com.pk/20-Jan-2025/turkey-s-syria-aspirations The mention sources can contact us to remove/changing this article |
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