Donald Trump 2.0 and the next era of superpower competition

The inauguration of Donald Trump as the forty-seventh president of the United States marks the beginning of a new era of superpower competition.

Last week, Washington experienced a brief sense of normalcy with the Senate confirmation hearings and President Joe Biden's farewell address. Even the theater of the candidate for Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth's audition and Biden's warnings about a techno-industrial complex That seemed subdued compared to the political storm expected to follow Trump's inauguration at noon Monday.

In his second inaugural address and through a series of executive orders, President Trump will unequivocally affirm that USA, Inc. is under new leadership.

Monday also marks the start of what Beijing has described as a new type of great power relations. Although it may be second round of the Trump-Xi confrontation, there is no doubt that the two leaders are breaking the ice phone call Last Friday marked the opening of a struggle for strategic advantage between the two most powerful men in the world.

Xi Jinping called shortly after official Chinese data showed Beijing had achieved its goals. GDP growth of 5 percent goal for 2024, to let President Trump know that he was facing him by sending Vice President Han Zheng to attend the inauguration. Xi has been actively preparing for possible retaliatory measures in the event of new tariffs and export controls. Still, this phone call was intended to get a head start on what are sure to be heated debates between competing camps within the Trump administration.

Indo-Pacific observers are watching how the tug-of-war between the hawks of peace through strength and the proponents of Big Tech and commercial engagement will play out.

China is the most powerful and dangerous nearby opponent “This nation has never faced it,” Secretary of State nominee Marco Rubio said during his confirmation hearing. Rubio blamed China lie, hack and cheat its path to superpower status. He stressed the urgent need to close the backlog in arms sales to Taiwan and reduce the United States' dependence on China.

New national security adviser Michael Waltz highlighted bipartisan support for countering China at the U.S. Institute of Peace. Passing the baton event, a quadrennial transfer that I helped launch as USIP's chief academic officer in 2001. Waltz praised the Biden administration's strategic cooperation with its Indo-Pacific allies through minilateral initiatives such as AUKUS, the Quad and the trilateral agreements involving the United States, Japan, South Korea and the Philippines. These partnerships constitute a basis for dealing with the likely turbulence to come.

However, these traditional strong defense views are not the only deeply held beliefs within the new administration. Many economic and defense challenges await us, ranging from rescue of TikTok to the imminent threat of The forced unification of Taiwan with China, and a number of key officials are focused on prosperity. Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessents' call for a new economic golden age. Her 3-3-3 The plan prioritizes energy dominance, GDP growth and fiscal management. Proposed measures include cutting taxes, deregulating supply chains, encouraging new investment, using tariffs and negotiating more favorable trade deals, including with China.

Of course, President Trump sits atop a cohort of senior officials with diverse views. Hardliners and pragmatists alike hope to emulate Sun Tzu and win without fighting. At least, as Senator Rubio acknowledged in his own confirmation, President Trump believes that conflict with China can be avoided; negotiation by force is the key.

The new influence of Big Tech CEOs in the Trump administration is a reminder of the innovative and industrial weight of the private sector. Amid growing competition with China, businesses have not stood idly by under the Biden administration. For example, Apple decision The move of some operations to India reflects a trend toward reducing dependence on China, just as China's decision to prevent the move suggests that Beijing is in no rush to see offshoring. Meanwhile, others fear that Trump's implementation of tariffs will follow “friendshoring.” Singapore's former ambassador to the United States, Chan Heng Chee, has warned that Southeast Asian countries like Singapore could become collateral damage whether the United States enforces strict trade protections.

The new administration's immediate agenda is ambitious. These include ending the war in Ukraine, reshaping the Middle East and possibly setting up another meeting with North Korea's Kim Jong-un. However, an expected meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping The end of this year will be a defining moment in this new era of superpower competition. Events leading up to this summit will shape the strategic landscape.

Key economic challenges include negotiating a deal to save TikTok, even as refugees flee to Chinese apps like Xiaohongshu (literally Little Red Book or RedNote). Bilateral economic relations depend on clarity on trade and technology policies, such as the small yards, high fences approach articulated by the previous administration. Strategic concerns such as semiconductor chip control and data security will dominate discussions in the coming months. However, export controls alone are unlikely to outpace China's progress, just as France in the 18th century could not prevent the industrial revolution in England.

For Trump, the pressing question is how to approach a second trade deal. China's two-speed economy is marked by slow consumption and construction but rapid industrial production and exports. Xi prepares to counter tariffs with The Beijing Playbook restrictions on critical minerals, regulations and self-sufficiency measures. But in many ways, the details of a deal are less important than overall competition over the broader rules of the road.

David Rennie The economist gives an overview of Chinese ambitions. After spending the last six years in the country, Rennie observes that China seeks to revise the post-World War II order led by the United States, positioning itself as a defender of the status quo against America First policies. China's Xi aims to replace universal democratic values ​​with universal security, promoting a world order ripe for techno-authoritarianism – a point echoed by Biden's warning of a techno-industrial complex in his farewell speech.

Economic interdependence constrains both nations. Trump risks backlash over tariffs. Xi relies on advanced markets to support China's export-focused strategy while striving for self-reliance.

Competition will intensify in the countries of the South, particularly between the BRICS countries. China has expanded its influence beyond Asia, to Africa and Latin America. Xi recently offered Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Dissanayake a A $3.7 billion state-of-the-art oil refinery adjacent to the port of Hambantota, itself the result of the generosity of the Belt and Road Initiative. Xi also recently engaged with Secretary General of Vietnam as Russia promoted it Inclusion of Vietnam in BRICS. These two moves and many others by Xi Jinping suggest that China hopes to outflank Trump's pressure campaign by forging new ties with emerging markets.

China is also strengthening ties with Europe and advanced economies in Asia. If President Trump's strategy to buy Greenland appears to intimidate U.S. allies and partners, China is prepared to step in and exploit these tensions. As a Chinese scholar Wang Jisi warns: Now it is the Americas' turn to make mistakes.

The agenda on competition in defense and security is even more tense. Under Trump, the U.S. defense industrial base and armed forces will face a fundamental transformation and focus on strategic outcomes rather than social experimentation. A real pivot to Asia appears likely, requiring greater cost-sharing with allies and increased cooperative efforts in space, global chokepoints, and cyberspace.

However, the region's main defense hotspots, Taiwan and the South China Sea, are ripe for confrontation. Taiwan faces growing psychological pressure with revelations about China's military modernization and narrative warfare. For example, Chinese Ambassador to Australia accused Taiwanese Vice President Lai Ching-te of seeking independence, making clear that psychological pressure will only increase on Taiwan in the coming months. At the same time, Chinese revelations of new portable bridge docks and large Type 076 amphibious platforms capable of integrating unmanned systems suggest continued progress toward invasion capabilities.

The South China Sea will also experience rougher waters. The Philippines complains that China's intensifying operations in the gray zone, such as the massive deployment of coast guard vessels to contest its territorial claims, are pushing Manila to on the wall.

This superpower competition will likely involve simultaneous conflict and increasing cooperation between revisionist powers like China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran. As John Ratcliffe stated during his confirmation hearing to become CIA director, the increased coordination between US rivals constitutes as serious a security challenge as the United States has ever faced. Emergency planning will become increasingly complex.

President Trump prioritized China during his first term. Eight years later, a new era of superpower competition has arrived. The only question now is which direction it will take.

Dr. Patrick M. Cronin is the Asia-Pacific Chair in Security at the Hudson Institute and teaches at the Carnegie Mellon Institute for Security and Technology (CMIST), Carnegie Mellon University.

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