The impact of Syria on regional rivalries

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan (right) and Syrian Minister for Foreign Affairs Asaad Al-Shaybani attend a press conference after their meeting in Ankara on January 15. [EPA]

After years of diplomatic isolation, Damascus sees high -ranking visitors with clear political missions. The fall of the Assad regime has created a void that attracts those who are eager to claim the responsibility to shape the future of this strategically vital country in new conditions.

Currently, Turkey seems best placed to play a decisive role in the future of Syria. The multiplication of political displacements between Ankara and Damascus underlines this domination. It is not a coincidence if Ibrahim Kalin, the Turkish intelligence chief, was the first senior foreign official to visit the Syrian interim government. Shortly after, the Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan followed suit. It is apparently only a matter of time before Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan presents himself personally to court the new Damascus leaders.

Last week, Syrian Minister for Foreign Affairs Asaad Al-Shaybani responded to the gesture by going to Turkey, accompanied by the Syrian Defense Minister and the Head of Intelligence. Turkey has never abandoned the Syrian people in recent years, said Shaybani in an impeccable Turk, which he learned during his university studies in Istanbul. This biographical detail is emblematic of the solid communication networks that Ankara established with personalities of the Syrian opposition during the years of civil war, including the Islamist rebels of Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham. These networks are now used as a basis for Ankara's efforts to consolidate its influence in Syria.

The quest for power and domination of Turkey from its southern neighbor causes discomfort in many environments, including in Israel. Since the Gaza War, relations between Erdogan, Turkey and Benjamin Netanyahu and Israel are openly hostile. Recently, Israeli security experts have warned that Turkey’s growing influence in Syria could be a greater threat to Israel than for Iran. The presence of Turkish troops in the Syrian border territories of Israel increases the risk of a direct military confrontation between the two nations, according to a report by the Nagel Commission, named after its president.

The return of post-revolutionary Syria within the international community is not a one-way way leading only to Ankara. At the end of December, the Syrian foreign ministers made their first official visit abroad, towards Saudi Arabia. Stops followed in Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Jordan. Having lost the competition of influence in neighboring Iraq for the benefit of Iran after the fall of Saddam Hussein, Saudi Arabia is determined not to repeat this reverse in Syria. While Tehran is currently marginalized in the fight for leadership in Syria, Turkey has become the main regional rival of Riyadh.

The rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Turkey has deep historical roots, reaching its peak in the Arab Spring, when Erdogan's support for the Muslim Brotherhood has alienated conservative monarchies of the Gulf. Today, following upheavals in Syria, this Turkish-Arab antagonism is revived.

For new Syrian leaders, the challenge is to find a balance between the openings of Turkey and those of the Gulf monarchies. At the heart of this effort is the obtaining of reconstruction assistance, which Syria cannot launch without substantial financial support from abroad. In this phase, European nations play a secondary and cautious role in Syria. Their hesitation largely comes from the conditional nature of their cooperation offers, which are linked to political stipulations.

This is only a matter of time before Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan presents himself personally to court the new Damascus leaders.

The Greek government also adopts a wait -and -see approach. A few days after the change of power in Damascus, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis explained the policy of Athens: we have a voice and a role concerning what is happening today in Syria. First of all because we are close geographically. Second, because we are the natural protectors of Greek and Arabic -speaking Orthodox Christians. We can talk to everyone.

The comments of the Greek press focused on concerns about Ankara's growing influence and its potentially negative effects on Greek interests. It is particularly concerned that Turkey is not taking advantage of the opportunity to conclude an agreement with the Syrian interim government similar to the controversial agreement on the 2019 Turkish-Libyan maritime border, bypassing international maritime law. The Greek government has largely avoided joining these sometimes stormy debates, rather giving priority to the well-being of Orthodox communities in Syria. The former Christian population that is important in Syria, which has a rich history, has decreased considerably in recent years, the Greek media today citing around 300,000 faithful.

In mid-December, Mitsotakis went to Beirut to meet John X, the Greek Orthodox Patriarch of Antioch and the whole East. The senior religious leader, representing one of the oldest Christian communities in the world, has made the trip from its siege in Damascus for the meeting. The Greek media report that the ecumenical patriarchy of Istanbul also participated in efforts aimed at protecting the religious minority.

In addition to this ecclesiastical diplomacy, Greece plays an increasingly active role in the geopolitical landscape of the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East. Beyond the initiatives coordinated by the EU, Athens has established multilateral and bilateral partnerships with key regional players. These include trilateral alliances with Israel and Cyprus as well as with Cyprus and Egypt. More recently, a strategic partnership with Saudi Arabia has emerged, encompassing economic, energetic and military cooperation.

At the beginning of the year, the developments in Syria were at the center of the discussions during the summits of Cairo with the Egyptian, Cypriot and Greek leaders, as well as at the Greco-Saudi summit in Al-Ula. Greece and Saudi Arabia share the same vision concerning security and peace in the region, said Mitsotakis. Regional alliances in the service of the interests of Greece’s foreign policy are united by their common concern in the face of the growing influence of Turkey and their determination to counter it.

The way in which developments in Syria will shape the trajectory of Greco-Turkish relations, the traditional central point of Athens' foreign policy, remains unclear. For the moment, the historically tense relationship is in a phase of relaxation. The accent put by Ankara on Syria could, for the moment, contribute to preserving stability along the southeast flank of Europe.

Dr. Ronald Meinardus is a principal researcher at the Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (Eliamep).