Politics
Supporting an Azerbaijan attack against Armenia is not in the interest of Israel
The strategic partnership between Israel and Azerbaijan was at the heart of its foreign policy in the Southern Caucasus. However, Azerbaijan seems to plan more attacks against Armenia, which is not in the interest of Israel. As people who follow events in the region closely, we humbly urge Israel to discourage his ally from making a terrible error.
The Baku regime sells oil to Israel, buys Israeli weapons and offers an advanced base to monitor and counter Iran. It is not a great deal since the regime of president Azerbaijani Ilham Aliyev is currently one of the most dictatorial in the world, but it is a case of realpolitik perhaps understandable.
For Azerbaijan, this alliance proved to be invaluable during its conflict with the autonomous enclave populated by Haut-Karabakh Armenians, where Israeli weapons have been used in operations that led to a decisive victory for the Azerbaijan and ethnic cleaning of 120,000 Armenians in September 2023.
Recently, Azerbaijan has shown that its ambitions extended to the sovereign territory of Armenia: grabbing the so -called Zanguezur corridor, in southern Armenia, in the Syunik region.
The control of this corridor would create a terrestrial bridge towards the ally of Azerbaijan, Turkey, in turn reinforcing the ambitions of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who, with his flirtations with Russia, are in serious lag with the obligations of this country as a member of NATO.
The dangers of attack projects have been reported for weeks by safety and policy experts in Europe, and a major sign appeared at the beginning of the month in an interview with Aliyev.
Using a terminology that recalls that of Russian President Vladimir Putin before attacking Ukraine, Aliyev accused Armenia of having a fascist ideology for 30 years and being a threat to the region. Aliyev argued that fascism should be destroyed. It will be destroyed either by Armenian leaders or by us. We have no other choice.
An Azerbaijani attack against Armenia would be an assault that Israel should neither help nor encourage.
This would not mean that Israel abandons his alliance with Azerbaijan, but it would rather advise him to avoid any excessive measure which could turn against him.
Such an approach against Armenia would not simply be an extension of Aliyev's territorial consolidation. This would violate the sovereignty of Armenia, an emerging democracy, and fundamentally modify the regional balance in a way that would directly benefit Turkey.
By connecting Turkey to Azerbaijan and Central Asia, this corridor would extend the Turkish influence throughout the region. Since Turkey could have a huge influence on the new regime in Syria, this Turkish area would extend from Central Asia to the Golan's border.
Turkey, under Erdogan, is behaving more and more like a rogue member of NATO, pursuing expansionist ambitions under the guise of fight against terrorism and stability. Erdogan's support for Islamist militias in Syria has strengthened the influence of Turkey there, especially in the northwest. Through these agents, Ankara has moved the Kurdish populations, undermined Kurdish autonomy and reinforced extremist factions, while avoiding a direct military confrontation.
Erdogan's neo-ottoman vision is not limited to Syria. During the Haut-Karabakh war in 2020, Turkey transported Syrian mercenaries by plane to fight alongside the Azerbaijani forces, a tactic which demonstrates the use by Ankara of Islamist militias as an instruments of foreign policy.
And this foreign policy is clearly hostile to Israel. The massive support of Erdogan in Hamas and his ambiguous threats to Israel, of which he referred to the possibility of an invasion, highlight the dangers of a strengthening of Ankara's power.
Destabilize Armenia
Armenia, in the meantime, is an emerging democracy that tries to move away from Russian dependence and to get closer to the West. An attempt to seize the Zangezur corridor threatens to destabilize this trajectory, pushing Armenia in the orbit of Moscow and reinforcing anti-Western forces within the country, an evolution that Israel should not necessarily greet .
The loss of this corridor would also devote the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Armenia, signaling to the other authoritarian regimes that the assault against the weakest neighbors will not be under control.
The behavior of Turkey here and its reserve position on the war between Russia and Ukraine underline its divergence with the principles and values ​​of NATO. The purchase by Erdogan of S-400 Russian missile systems, contempt for Western sanctions against Moscow and aggressive actions in the eastern Mediterranean are only a few examples of NATO cohesion damage by Ankara.
Turkey's actions also call into question American interests in the region. The climbing of Erdogan's speech against the Syrian Kurds, which are essential allies of the United States in the fight against the Islamic State, and its alignment with Azerbaijan are likely to destabilize an already unstable region.
In addition, Erdogan's dependence on Islamist militias and its imperialist vision come up against Western efforts aimed at promoting democratic governance and stability in the Middle East and Central Asia. A seizure of the Zangezur corridor would enhance Turkey and create new challenges for NATO, the United States and regional actors like Israel.
The Zangezur corridor is also of strategic importance for Iranians, because it constitutes an essential route to Armenia for trade, travel and cultural exchanges. Even if cutting Iran from Armenia may seem advantageous to some, it is unlikely that the Islamic Republic of Iran will continue eternally. A more moderate Iranian government will probably seek in the future to reintegrate into the global community, and access to Armenia could be important.
For the United States and NATO, it is an opportunity to reaffirm their fundamental values ​​and to impose consequences on Turkey for its rogue behavior. For American President Donald Trump, it is also an opportunity to act decisively in a region where President Joe Biden was planning weakness.
Just as the United States under Biden did not do much to prevent the Yemen Houthis from disturbing world maritime trade with their attacks against ships heading to the Suez Canal in Egypt, they also allowed Aliyev To unleash and Erdogan to attack the Kurds Allied in the United States in Syria. An approach to peaceful regulations is also in the interest of new administrations.
As for Israel, to support in any way the seizure of Zanguezur's corridors would cross a dangerous line. Israel should oppose this approach, balancing its strategic alliance with Azerbaijan while adopting a position in principle against the excesses of Turkey. With Trump who manages Ankara and Israel who hires Baku, madness could be avoided.
Dan Perry is the former editor-in-chief of Associated Press for Europe, Africa and the Middle East, the former president of the association of the foreign press in Jerusalem and the author of two books on Israel . He also works with a pro-democracy NGO in Yerevan. Follow him to danperry.substack.com
Gilead Sher is a former chief of staff to the Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak and a leading peace negotiator. He is a non-resident researcher on peace and security in the Middle East at the Baker Institute of Rice University. His recent book Reflections on conflict resolution was published in 2022.
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