2025 could be a difficult year for Sino-Pakistani relations

Here is the complete interview that I granted to Shakil, FM of Voa China, on this subject, of which extracts were published in their report on January 20 titled 2025.

Sino-Pakistani relations remain officially excellent, but they seem to have been put to the test during the past year. Pakistan's inability to protect Chinese workers badly reflects its role in the reception of the flagship project of the belt and road initiative (BRI), the Chine-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

Where the CPEC is going, the BRI is also going, at least that's what some people think that consider this megaprojet as an indicator of the success of global infrastructure networks. It is therefore not surprising that China is concerned about its long -term viability.

It is believed that the latest terrorist attacks in Pakistan are linked to Afghanistan due to information that the Tehrik-I-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the Balutchistan Liberation Army (Bla) operate from this country with this country with The tacit approval of Afghan Taliban (simply the Taliban).

Some believe that the Taliban use designated groups as terrorists as a means of asymmetrically compensating for their conventional military weakness in the face of their former Pakistani boss with which they compete for the Durand line, the border imposed by the British between Afghanistan and later . has become Pakistan, which the Taliban do not recognize.

Whatever their possible motivation to specifically use such means to balance the power of Pakistan, the fact is that these groups create a dangerous environment for the CPEC, in particular for the Bla, which sometimes targets associated projects and workers Chinese.

The problem from the Chinese point of view is therefore double: the Taliban would use terrorist agents against Pakistan, which is already quite worrying, but Pakistan is unable to adequately protect CPEC projects and Chinese workers, which is No doubt due to his unjustified cracking priority. Against the PTI opposition party of the former Prime Minister Imran Khan.

As we have seen, these two elements escape the capacity of direct influence of China. His diplomacy prior to this has failed to bring Afghanistan to avoid such scandalous means to balance the power of Pakistan, Pakistan continues to give priority to the repression of the opposition rather than its anti -terrorist interests , and the links between these neighboring countries friends of China continue to deteriorate, as has been proven. by the latest violence on the border.

If Afghano-Pakistani relations continue to deteriorate, China could then consider informally reducing investments in the CPEC and perhaps even freezing existing projects, including under unrelated pretexts, if this happens and If its representatives are in a hurry to publicly account for this situation in order to avoid giving the impression that it is pulling out of the game. Back from the flagship project of the BRI.

To add a touch to all of this, Donald Trump's return to the American presidency could see him possibly provide a certain form of assistance to the last anti -terrorist campaign in Pakistan, but provided that he withdraws from the CPEC (even if this is only officially) and provides privileged investments in the United States and other opportunities to balance Chinese influence in the country.

His first mandate was characterized by his transactional style focused on the economy, so that the previous one exists, even if he could not propose such an agreement in the end, or he could also include the unacceptable condition according to which the Pakistan reduces its long -range ballistic missile program against which the former Biden The Administration has just imposed sanctions, in particular unprecedented sanctions against a state agency.

Be that as it may, 2025 could be a difficult year for Sino-Pakistani relations due to the deterioration of the interior security situation of Pakistan caused by terrorists based in Afghanistan (in particular the Bla) and Trump plans for Contain China more muscularly, the latter can see it try to contain China. to exercise more pressure on the CPEC in order to discredit the BRI as a whole (if the resurgence of the abovementioned terrorism does not do so first).

Extracts from this interview were published in the Voa China report on January 20, 2025.

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