With Donald Trump, with Xi Jinping and with the Devil. Chronicle of Fernando Vivas on the dilemma of Peruvian foreign policy | China | United States | POLICY

There were still explanations to give to Dina. It turns out that this time, Trump invited 4 Latin presidents: Javier Miley Argentina, Nayib Bukele Salvador, Daniel Noboa Ecuador and James pea Paraguay. Bukele did not go there but the other 3 did it. Why were these 4 chosen? The answer is not difficult. The 4 are perceived as a right closer to Trump and, with the exception of Milei, they share with Donald the profile of political entrepreneurs, rich dedicated to harango the poor. Bukele is the Rockstar of the fight against gangsters; Noboa wants to be the bukele of the southern hemisphere; Paraguayan peas is a friend of Taiwan, who is the closest enemy to China. Milei is liable to China but is a declared fan of Donald.

Read also | Los Palos de Delia, a chronicle of Fernando Vivas on the prosecutor of the nation

They explained to Dina that it was better not to invite her, because if that were the case, the Zen pose that Peru wants to maintain between the two powers would be unbalanced. My diplomatic friends call this constructive neutrality and believe that this is achievable on a tenuous line. But when I ask them for scenarios, they cut me short with realism: Trump is revolutionizing his foreign policy, so the task of Torre Tagle, for the moment, is to know and understand the changes, without losing sight of , despite the turbulence, the position of each player on the set.

For the Chancellor, it was enough that the conservative right, such an important sector of Peruvian policy, was represented alone in Washington, Rafael López Aliaga. But the message Gringo, addressed to the service authorities at the palace, of the type “Hey, Peru, American brother, are you with democratic America which will become great or are you with the distant and communist East”, continues to Resonate.

There are already two specific threats that are not scenarios. These are decrees. Trump, in his first presidential package, has issued several of these orders: one is the one who suspends international cooperation while he assesses each case. The other is the one who orders the revision of all free trade agreements. Regarding the first, the Minister of Foreign Affairs considers that he will have no devastating effects because the same decree indicates that, if cooperation serves national security and the fight against the enemies of the United States, it must be maintained . In our case, the main area of ​​cooperation is the fight against drug trafficking and organized crime, which are an exception. Regarding the ALE, the vow pile of the Chancellor's office is that ours could be revised but not canceled. It is too early to find out what political factors will weigh the most when this ALE, with so little impact for the United States, will be put on the table.

What do they offer?

The response to Washington's statements has been repeated for about 8 years. We can formulate it as follows: you forgot Latin America. They abandoned their investments and China has developed in these areas. If you want to find your pre -eminence, invest here. The figures are eloquent: China has climbed in the ranking to become our first trading partner. We have an excess balance, with an important balance in our favor. On the other hand, the balance with the United States is in deficit. Compare the month of August 2024: we exported $ 2,298 million to China and imported $ 1,290 million, with a balance in favor of $ 1,008 million. We have exported for $ 852 million to the United States and imported $ 1,070 million, with a deficit of $ 218 million. China wins with an overwhelming victory.

However, bilateral relations are global and are not limited to balance. With China, it is true that the relationship is mainly commercial; With the United States, it has other fundamental components, such as the one I mentioned concerning cooperation in the fight against mafias and in development programs. There are cultural relationships, of continental identity, which also count. The United States is the second country where the most tourists come from in Peru (Of the total visitors in January and February 2024, 32.9 % came from Chile and 14.2 % from the United States). And military cooperation comes to the point where there are constant joint exercises, which is unthinkable with the Chinese.

With China, according to my sources, the dialogue relates to trade. In the many bilateral relations we had (Boluarte already had three with Xi Jinping, one at the APEC 2023 summit in San Francisco, his visit to Beijing last year and the visit of XI during the APEC 2024 in Lima); We hardly talk about other things. Even, according to one of my diplomatic sources, one of the reasons why the inauguration of the port of Chancay was not done on the spot was that the Chinese preferred to alleviate the theories of the conspiracy.

With the United States, dialogue is generally taking place in English and is more direct. For example, they told me that the chancellor Elmer Schialer spoken with the Congress Member Brian Mast, Republican representative (deputy) of Florida, veteran who lost his legs in Afghanistan. Mast cut off to the Peruvian by asking him for definitions on Chancay and his possible military use by China. He got up on his electronic legs, headed for the blackboard and located Chancay on the map, showing him what would be for him a strategic headquarters for the Chinese. Schialer, in a familiar tone, explained to him that our constitution completely excludes this possibility.

Of course, neither the Republicans nor the Democrats will be satisfied with a simple legal explanation on Chancay. LThe warning given by an article in the Financial Times of October 2023 has since multiplied in volume, especially after the official inauguration of the port. If the Biden administration has already raised the eyebrows in the face of the Sino-Peruvian collaboration, the Trump administration increases them even more. Mauricio Claver-Carone, The former president of the BID, appointed by Trump as special envoy of the Secretary of State for Latin America, said in an interview with Bloomberg before taking up his duties that any product which transit by Chacay or by any port controlled by China in the region should be taxed. With a price of 60%, as if the product came from China. As his opinion says, one could understand that the Peruvian products leaving Chancay towards the American ports would be taxed. The Chancellor prefers to wait for the threats to materialize before making a statement.

Note that Trump's approach to the Chinese was that of an aggressive commercial rival, threatening pricing measures, even specific prohibitions; But he was not belligerent or foreign to diplomacy. He invited Xi Jinping to his nomination and he did not go there but he sent his vice-president Han Zheng. The military conspiracy is not present in Trump's statements on China, but commercial aggressiveness could compromise our relations with the United States.

Are we condemned to choose the largest market and forget the American partner? Is it possible to maintain constructive neutrality advocated by the Chancellor? After the inauguration of Chancay with Xi Jinping, We are perceived as involved in the Silk Road. Trump's arrival therefore deserves special attention, in order to thwart this perception. A message on the X account of the Presidency of Peru indicates that the relationship of historical friendship which will celebrate its 200 years in 2026 will continue to strengthen. Since the first years of the Republic, there have been diplomatic relations with the United States, while with China (whose birth certificate as a communist state dates back to 1949), they were only established 'in 1971.

Not davos, Dina did not want to talk about Trump, but it was inevitable that he appeared in the questions. Indeed, in the corridor, Boluarte was attacked by a microphone. “We invite President Trump to visit Peru or Vice Versa, we will go there and be able to speak with him so that we can start to forge the links that already exist between the United States and Peru,” -He replied. In what he says are the essential parts (mutual invitation, pre -existing links, good wishes), but in an awkward dismay. Effective diplomacy required that we were starting by weighing ties and finishing with the invitation. The president does not remember the history of the continent.

The speed and strength with which Trump 2.0 offers adjustments will not necessarily be maintained over time. There are those who think that the almost compulsive rush is due to the fact that the Republicans could lose their parliamentary majority in two years and that it is better to take advantage of the moment. China, on the other hand, a long -standing one -party state capitalist country, has shown a lot of patience.