Politics
The Philippines now focus on Chinese threats against Taiwan
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The climbing of tensions between China and Taiwan forced the Philippines, whose northern point is less than 100 miles from Taiwanto, its accent on a potential cross conflict. Until now, Manila has prioritized internal security, in particular with regard to Islamist insurgents on the southern island of Mindanao, as well as Beijing pushing the encroachment in the exclusive economic zone of the Philippines (Eez) in the sea of southern China. But a future scenario of Taiwan in the Philippines could react and potentially support his safety ally, the United States, if the latter had to start taking more from the bandwidth of Manilas.
Significantly, in a departure from previous administrations, the Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. publicly discussed his growing concerns against Taiwan. Last summer, Marcos visited his unit of the North Army and doThe external threat [from the Taiwan Strait] has now become more pronounced, has become more worrying. And that's why we have to prepare. In an interview of February 2023, Marcos saidIt is very difficult to imagine a scenario where the Philippines will not get involved in one way or another.
The climbing of tensions between China and Taiwan forced the Philippines, whose northern point is less than 100 miles from Taiwanto, its accent on a potential cross conflict. Until now, Manila has prioritized internal security, in particular with regard to Islamist insurgents on the southern island of Mindanao, as well as Beijing pushing the encroachment in the exclusive economic zone of the Philippines (Eez) in the sea of southern China. But a future scenario of Taiwan in the Philippines could react and potentially support his safety ally, the United States, if the latter had to start taking more from the bandwidth of Manilas.
Significantly, in a departure from previous administrations, the Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. publicly discussed his growing concerns against Taiwan. Last summer, Marcos visited his unit of the North Army and doThe external threat [from the Taiwan Strait] has now become more pronounced, has become more worrying. And that's why we have to prepare. In an interview of February 2023, Marcos saidIt is very difficult to imagine a scenario where the Philippines will not get involved in one way or another.
Marcos also chaired an expansion of the American Philippines Improved defense cooperation contract (EDCA), which authorizes the US military to work alongside the Philippine forces with nine bases designated for a range of future potential missions. Marcos insistment that the new Edca Basesthree is on Luzon, the main island of the Filippines closest to Taiwan will not be used for offensive purposes, but it also has note The fact that we access these sites will be useful for us if this terrible occurrence is revealed, referring to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
A large part of operational and strategic planning revolves around Manilas recently completed the complete archpelagic defense concept. This document has never been publicized, but Philippine experts told me that it was an attempt to discourage the manilas mentality far from focusing on internal security threats in favor of external threats and Untilized intrusions, mainly by China against Filipino maritime borders.
The American and Philippine forces contribute to the new defense strategy with an obvious accent on Taiwan. In recent months, the two countries have built a joint installation on ITBAYAT in Banque province to counter the military presence of Chinas in the region. It will be would have Emergency equipment and provisions of the house. The US military has qualified the unstoppy warehouse establishment for disasters that can store equipment and supplies not only for natural disasters but also war. In May and June 2024, Washington and Manila organized combat exercises on the Banque Islands, designed to defend them against attacks. The fact that some of these exercises have been integrated into the annual exercise of American-Philippine Balikatan is also significant because it repeats in a demonstrative way the attention of alliances on threats linked to Taiwan.
And in response to the house of the house, Nancy Pelosi visiting Taiwan in 2022 to meet the president of the time, Tsai Ing-Wen, Manila later built A new resort of the Philippines Coast Guard on Itbayat. In the words From the National Security Councilor Philippine Eduardo AO, the new site was necessary because the corresponding naval response of Chinas was observed in the Strait of Luzon following the visit of the pealus.
Manilas, the attention found in Taiwan, is likely to have several significant implications. On the one hand, Washington and Manila will now have to respond in collaboration to another threat of security beyond Beijing increasing insurance within the ZEE of the Philippines at the South China Sea. Beyond their recent activities focused on Taiwan, this could mean that the American army will seek additional posture and presence options which take advantage of the unique geographic advantages of the Philippines. This could result, for example, to American access to additional bases, especially in the North country, and other alliances work on the improvement of the interoperability of the forces thanks to joint military exercises and other activities.
For Manila, lending more attention to the threats in the North probably means a wider and deeper collaboration with the American army, whose Philippine forces can benefit. The challenge, however, is how to balance an accent on Taiwan with other security priorities. The Philippines probably prefer to stay focused on Chinese encroachments in his Zez; Instead, the Taiwan Strait distracted Manila and will force him to devote certain resources to the area at least that could otherwise have been used in the Southern China Sea. The establishment of the Philippines Coast Guards of a station on Itbayat shows how it already happens.
China can benefit from the Philippines movement to divide its forces, but this challenge can be attenuated if the American army also improves its presence. Manilas' recent decision to approve the American deployment of the mid -range typhoon missile system on its territory could strengthen deterrence. The missiles, which the Filipino soldiers have already been trained to operate, cover not only a large part of the Southern China Sea, but could also reach military bases on the Chinese coast.
In the coming months and years, a number of factors could also disrupt the change of manilas to Taiwan. President Donald Trump, for example, can expect the Philippines to do more for his own defense rather than relying on American security commitments. For example, when the president of the Philippine era, Rodrigo Duterte, tried to cancel the forces agreement visiting the forces of the United States visit, which is a key pact that underpins the Defense Treaty mutual of two countries, during Trumps' first term, Trump repliedI don't really mind if they want to do this. It will save a lot of money. My opinions are different from others. However, recent commitments from the Trump administration with Filipino counterparts by the American Secretary of State Marco Rubio and national security advisor Mike Waltz have stressed that the alliance will remain all.
In addition to the uncertainty that Trump adds to the mixture, a new direction in Manila could also seek to demote the American military presence. Duttertes' daughter, Sara Duterte, is currently Vice-President of Marcoss and is very popular. If she runs and won the next presidential election in 2028, she could prevent her nation on the path exposed by her father from relying less on the United States in favor of closer ties with China.
Regardless of these uncertainties and others, Chinas' pressure campaign against Taiwan will not fade. This will keep the United States and the Philippines more and more committed to the security of cross-lines in an eye to limit the impact that a Taiwan conflict will have almost certainly to the Philippines.
Sources 2/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/01/29/us-philippines-china-taiwan-military-defense-security-alliance/ The mention sources can contact us to remove/changing this article |
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