Politics

5 years later, the full impact of Brexit is still emerging

By Jill Lawless

London (AP) – Five years ago Friday, two crowds of people gathered near the British parliament – some with Union Jacks and Cheers, others European Union Flags and tears.

January 31, 2020 at 11 p.m. London time – midnight at the EU headquarters in Brussels – the United Kingdom Officially left the block After almost five decades of membership, which had caused free movement and free trade between Great Britain and 27 other European countries.

For Brexit Supporters, the United Kingdom was now a sovereign nation in charge of its own destiny. For opponents, it was an isolated and decreased country.

It was, without relevant, a divided nation that had led to the dark. Five years later, people and businesses are still struggling with economic, social and cultural replicas.

“The impact was really deep enough,” said political scientist Anand Menon, who directs the United Kingdom's thinking group in a changing Europe. “It changed our economy.

“And our policy has also changed fundamentally,” he added. “We have seen a new division around Brexit being part of electoral policy.”

A decision that divided the nation

An island nation with a solid sense of its historical importance, Great Britain had long been a worried member of the EU during its referendum in June 2016 on the opportunity to stay or leave. Decades of deindustrialisation, followed by years of reductions in public spending and high immigration, have made a fertile ground for the argument that Brexit would allow the United Kingdom “regain control” of its borders, laws and economics .

However, the result – 52% to 48% in favor of the departure – was a shock for many. Neither the Conservative government, which campaigned to stay in the EU, nor the pro-Brexit activists had planned the disorderly details of the split.

The referendum was followed by Years of struggle During the terms of divorce between an injured EU and a Father Kingdom Prime Minister Theresa May. She resigned in 2019 and was replaced by Boris Johnsonwho swore to “do Brexit”.

It was not so simple.

A blow for the British economy

The United Kingdom has left without agreement on its future economic relations with the EU, which represented half of the country's trade. The political departure was followed by 11 months of testy negotiations on the conditions of divorce, leading to an agreement on Christmas Eve in 2020.

THE Naked commercial deal I saw the United Kingdom leave the single market and the customs union of the block. This meant that goods could move without prices or quotas, but have brought new administrative formalities, costs and delays for businesses.

“It cost us money. We are certainly slower and it is more expensive. But we have survived, “said Lars Andersen, including the London company, My Nametags, sends bright colors for children's clothing and school supplies to more than 150 countries.

To continue to negotiate with the EU, Andersen had to create a base in Ireland, through which all orders intended for EU countries must go before being sent. He says that the hassles are worth it, but some other small businesses he knows to negotiate with the EU or has moved from the manufacture of the United Kingdom

Julianne Ponan, founder and CEO of Creative Nature Creative Nature, producer of allergen -free food, had an increasing export company to the EU countries which was devastated by Brexit. Since then, she successfully turned to the markets in the Middle East and Australia, which she said was a positive result to leave the EU.

Having controlled the new bureaucracy, it is now gradually accumulating business with Europe.

“But we have lost four years of growth there,” she said. “And it's the sad party. We would be much further in our trip if Brexit had not happened. »»

The government's office for budgetary responsibility provides that British exports and imports will both long-term long-term only if the United Kingdom had remained in the EU, and economic productivity of 4% lower than what She wouldn't have been otherwise.

Brexit supporters argue that short-term pain will be offset by the new freedom of Great Britain to conclude trade agreements worldwide. From Brexit. The United Kingdom has signed trade agreements with countries such as Australia, New Zealand and Canada.

But David Henig, a commercial expert at the European Center for the International Political Economy, said they had not compensated for the blow to trade with the neighbors closest to Great Britain.

“The big actors are not so touched,” said Hénig. “We always have Airbus, we still have Scottish whiskey. We are always defense, large pharmaceutical products. But medium -sized players really find it difficult to keep their export position. And no one has just settled. »»

A lesson in involuntary consequences

In some respects, Brexit has not played as planned, supporters or opponents. The invasion of the pandemic and Russia of Ukraine from Ukraine, by Russia, has stacked more economic disturbances and made it more difficult to discern the impact of the British exit from the EU on the economy.

In a key area, immigration, the impact of Brexit was the opposite of what many predicted. A desire to reduce immigration was a major reason why many people voted to leave the EU, but immigration today is much higher than before Brexit, because the number of visas granted to workers of the workers whole world has skyrocketed.

Meanwhile, the rise of protectionist political leaders, in particular the newly dismissed American president, Donald Trump, has raised the challenges of Great Britain, now taken between his relatives in Europe and his transatlantic “special relationship” with the States -Unis

“The world is a much less indulgent place now than in 2016 when we voted to leave,” said Menon.

Can Great Britain and the EU be friends again?

The polls suggest that British public opinion has embarked on Brexit, the majority of people now thinking that it was a mistake. But joining it seems to be a distant perspective. With memories of arguments and still raw division, few people want to take all this.

Prime Minister of the Labor Party Keir StarmerElected in July 2024, promised to “reset” relations with the EU, but excluded to join the customs union or the single market. It aims at relatively modest changes such as the fact that artists are more easily turned and professionals are recognized, as well as more close cooperation on the application of laws and security.

EU leaders have hosted the change in tone of Great Britain, but have problems specific to them in the midst of growing populism through the continent. The United Kingdom is no longer an absolute priority.

“I understand perfectly, it is difficult to get back together after a fairly hard divorce,” said Andersen, who nevertheless hopes that Great Britain and the EU get closer to time. “I suspect it will happen, but it will happen slowly and subtly without the politicians crying particularly on this subject.”

Originally published: January 31, 2025 at 8:40 a.m. PST

Sources

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2/ https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/2025/01/30/brexit-5-years-later/

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5 years later, the full impact of Brexit is still emerging

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