The role of Turkey's eyes in European security

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk (left) and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (right) made a statement to the media in Ankara on March 12, 2025. [Leszek Szymanski/EPA]

Turkey has become a key potential partner in the restructuring of European security, diplomats and analysts say that, while Europe is rushing to strengthen its defense and finding guarantees for Ukraine as part of any cease-fire contract to come by the United States.

European countries have been unstable by US President Donald Trumps plans to end the Ukraine war, which upset Washingtons's policy, interrupted Russia isolation with the possibility of rapprochement, stacked pressure on Kyiv after disastrous talks with the president of Ukraine Volodyr Zelenskiy and transatlantic ties in danger.

Analysts claim that Europeans push to maintain the military capacities of Ukraine and suit security guarantees, while stimulating its own defense without Washington, has created a rare opportunity for Turkey to deepen links with Europe despite persistent disputes on the rule of law, maritime problems with Greece and Cyprus, and the Ankaras have long stacked the supply of European Union.

European countries that thought they had the luxury of excluding Turkey until today see that they can no longer exclude Turkey, said Sinan Ulgen, a former Turkish diplomat and director of the Center for Economic Policy Studies (Edam).

Speaking after discussions with Erdogan in Ankara on Wednesday, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said he had made a clear proposal for Turkey to assume the greatest possible co-responsibility of peace in Ukraine and regional stability.

A senior European diplomat said that Turkey had very important opinions on what is necessary for peace in Ukraine.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had managed to balance his relationship between Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin during the war, the diplomat said, it is logical to have him on board.

Turkey of the NATO member has the second largest army of alliances. He has started to produce his own jets, tanks and naval carriers in recent years, and sells armed drones worldwide, including in Ukraine. Its exports from the defense industry totaled $ 7.1 billion in 2024.

In a blizzard of talks and decisions since the return of the Trumps in January, several European nations have discussed the formation of a coalition of the desire to help Ukraine. France proposed to consider extending its nuclear umbrella to the allies.

Erdogan and Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said Europe should include Turkey in the restructuring of its security architecture in a sustainable and dissuasive manner.

A Turkish official, who asked for anonymity, said that there were not yet clear plans on a new European security architecture or possible turkeys on this subject, but certain steps could advance cooperation.

Instead of including Turkey in projects in an à la carte manner, it would be more logical [for Europe] search for partnerships in a more holistic way. For example, they can start by including Turkey in the European Peace Installation Program, the official told Reuters, referring to an EU initiative supporting Ukraine.

A Turkish Defense Ministry official said Ankara and Europe had common interests, from the fight against migration terrorism, and that full participation in EU defense efforts was critical for Europe to be a global player, the addition of Turkey was ready to do what it can to help train the new security framework.

Despite the window of opportunity, analysts say that the position of turkeys towards Russia remains a test, because Ankara refused to impose sanctions after the invasion of Ukraine in Moscow and always shares solid energy, tourism and trade links.

The fundamental question that will present itself to Turkey is the question of links with Russia because the essence of the European security framework begins by considering Russia as a threat, said Ulgen, adding that Ankara must choose a team and a position on Russia to play a higher security role.

Turkey supported Ukraine militarily and expressed its support for its territorial integrity and its sovereignty. He organized peace talks in the first weeks of the war and proposed to welcome future interviews, while seeking to relaunch a security agreement on black sea.

Last week, a source from the Turkish Defense Ministry said Turkey could consider contributing to a potential peacekeeping mission in Ukraine, if a cease-fire is declared.

The chief of staff of the Turkeys armed forces, Metin Gurak, attended a meeting of the heads of the European army in Paris this week and met with counterparts in Great Britain and France, who also discussed the deployment troops.

Another European diplomat said it was essential for Turkey to participate in security guarantees for Ukraine.

The interests of Erdogans reside at us at the moment, especially since he no longer has this dynamic of Russia in Syria, said the person, in a reference to the support of the Russian Syrian president Bashar al-Assad and Turkey, the support of the opposition rebels for years.

Thus, in a way, the stars are aligned so that they play a role in future European guarantees for Ukraine. [Reuters]