Syria flashes signs of danger and promise in a week of violence and diplomacy

Beir | After the longtime autocratic sovereign of Syria was overthrown at the end of last year, the man who led the rebel groups to victory immediately faced a new challenge: unifying the country after more than a decade of civil war.

The danger and promise of Syria under the acting president Ahmad al-Sharaa, the former chief of a group of Islamist insurgents, were in dramatic exhibition during last week. After days of deadly sectarian violence, a diplomatic triumph has united a powerful force in the northeast of the country with the new national army.

On Tuesday, it seemed that Syria had taken major steps to repress the tensions that broke out this weekend. But analysts say that the country still has a long way to go, and that the risks of going back into the civil war or separating the country according to ethnic and sectarian lines.

The “path to rebuilding trust” will force the new leaders in Syria to do more to “protect lives and promote a feeling of unity among all communities,” said Ammar Kahf, executive director of Omran Center for Strategic Studies in Istanbul.

Building a stable and pluralist society is also essential to convince Western countries to raise over -the -counter economic sanctions that were placed on Syria during the brutal rule of former President Bashar Assad.

A week of political boost

From last Thursday, the clashes between government security forces and armed groups loyal to Assad did a work in sectarian revenge attacks that killed hundreds of civilians, most Alawites, a minority sect to which Assad belongs.

Government reinforcements finally restored order, and Calm seemed to hold late on Monday. The same day, Al-Sharaa had signed a historic pact under which the forces led by the Kurds in the northeast of the country would be merged with the new national army.

The agreement marked a major step towards the unification of the disparate factions which had cut Syria into de facto mini-states during its civil war. The civil war began in 2011 after the brutal repression of the government of Assad against massive anti -government demonstrations.

Not a professional army

Most of the armed factions that fought to dislodge Assad announced in January that they would join the national army. In practice, however, they maintained their own leadership.

“It is not a professional army,” said Issam al-Reis, military advisor at Etana, a Syrian research group. “In theory, it is planned to join the factions in an army and to merge everyone under the Ministry of Defense. But so far, in reality, in the field, everyone is always under their own umbrella. »»

On the other hand, there are thousands of former soldiers of the Army dissolved from the Assad era who are now unemployed and “very easy targets” for local or international actors interested in upsetting the fragile stability of Syria, al-Reis said.

Sectal violence over the weekend was difficult to contain, according to analysts, because the government had to turn to a patchwork of unruly factions, including armed civilians-to fight pro-Assad activists who attacked the security forces along the coast. Members of some of these factions have launched bloody revenge attacks against allawite civilians.

Violence has only strengthened the “important challenge to Syrian efforts (of the government) to consolidate power,” said Kahf, of the Omran Strategic Studies Center.

A historic agreement

Unexpectedly, violence seems to have accelerated the agreement to bring the armed group led by Kurds controlling most of Northeast Syria, known as Syrian Democratic Forces, under the aegis of the National Army.

The agreement occurred when he did because Al-Sharaa “needed to reach a diplomatic victory” after the violence of the weekend damaged his image, said Ahmed Abeid, Syrian researcher. At the same time, the SDF calculated that it could “make more important gains if it offered Sharaa this gift at the moment,” he said.

Under the agreement, border passages, airports and oil fields in the northeast will also be subject to the will of the central government by the end of the year. Many details must still be calculated, in particular which will manage prisons holding Islamic State fighters captured by SDF, but the agreement gives Al-Sharaa an essential political boost.

He seems to have eliminated “the two most important threats in the country's division in a few days,” said Abe Zeid.

International players push for unification

The agreement between the homeless person and the Syrian government took place with the blessing of two important international actors: the United States, which supported the homeless as a key ally in the fight against the militant group of the Islamic State; And Turkey, which supports the new leaders of Syria.

“It would not have happened if the Turks were not willing to let this happen,” according to a senior American defense who said Washington had encouraged the homeless to conclude an agreement with the leaders of Syria. He spoke under the cover of anonymity because he was not allowed to comment on publicly.

Although it was not written in the agreement, the manager said that Ankara had required insurance that the homeless abolished foreign fighters linked to the Kurdistan workers, or PKK, a Kurdish separatist group who had been insurrection for decades in Turkey before recently announced a cease-fire.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared Tuesday in a speech: “The complete implementation of the agreement concluded yesterday will serve the security and peace of Syria.”

However, the new Syrian government faces a range of challenges.

Since the fall of Assad, Israel has seized pockets of territory in southern Syria, saying that it moves to protect its borders.

The sanctions of the United States and its allies are still in place, the country will find it difficult to make significant investments in its economy and to rebuild the destroyed areas during the civil war.

Alawites and other minorities that were already skeptical of the authorities led by Islamists in Damascus are more frightened and hostile than they were a week ago, despite the promises of the new leaders of the country that those who attacked civilians will be held responsible.

Al-Reis said the reassuring will force the government to take “very strong measures” against the authors.

Related