The twin twin for Barraire the mayor of Istanbul of the ballot suggests that the Erdogan turkeys are really worried this time

Mayor of Istanbul Immamogl ecrem had expect to become candidate presidential oppositional March 23, 2025; Instead, he lost his freedom and his university diploma.

On March 18, the politician considered as a powerful rival of the Turkish president for a long time Recep Tayyip Erdogan saw his Baccalaureate revoked by the University of Istanbul. A day later, the Imamoglu was Arrested with staff members and a district mayor of Istanbul.

Inasmuch as Turkish policy expertI believe that the time of these two measures suggests that Erdogan is really worried that imamoglu is a serious threat to its 22 -year rule.

The more than 100 people gathered in the police 'scanning in Istanbul all came from the main opposition party of the turkey, from the Party of the Republican Peoples, or RPP, which was created by the founder of the Turkeys, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk. THE Accusations against them understand Corruption, training of a criminal organization and helping the PKK, a Kurdish group appointed by Turkey as a terrorist groupBy collaboration with the pro-Kurdish political party.

What makes this accusation more perplex is that it comes at a time when the government promotes Abdullah Ocalan, the PKK chief, as a peacemaker who Dissolve the organization. The face of the ocalan, which for 26 years has been in a Turkish prison, is seen by political observers as an effort by Erdogan to the short Kurdish support to a constitutional amendment which would remove the limits of presidential term which otherwise prevents it from running again.

President for life?

The Turkish Constitution limits the presidents to two five -year -old mandates. Erdogan was already elected three times, but justified his third round by arguing that his first mandate had taken place before the 2017 constitutional amendments which established the current system. If the term limit is lifted, it could be elected a fourth time and potentially beyond.

The main obstacle to the plans of Erdogans is Imamoglu, which seems to be much more popular than the longtime president.

The revocation of the 31 -year -old imamoglus was largely considered an attempt to disqualify it of the presidential election and an excuse to cancel the RPP primary on March 23. According to the constitution of Turkeys, a The presidential candidate must graduate university.

The accusations seem to have been brought against Imamoglu with an even more ambitious objective in mind: to prevent it from holding a public service, including the mayor. This would give a triple victory for Erdogan that he would be able to recover the mayor of Istanbuls by appointing a handpicked official, pushing by constitutional changes by intimidating parliamentarians and eliminating his strongest rival from any future presidential race.

The attempt to seize power and term extensions could move the political system of turkey from a defective democracy to one elected dictatorship similar to Vladimir Poutines Russia.

This is why the chief of the RPP Ozgur Ozel described the measures against imamoglu as a coup against the right of peoples to elect their leader.

More free elections?

Erdogan is a master of elections in terms of Promote populist policiesAnd manipulate the media and electoral practices to work against opposition parties.

Facing low rivals, whether by chance or by its manipulations, has been the key to Erdogans' electoral success in the past two decades. Under the direction of his former chief, Kemal KilicdarogluThe opposition RPP underwent successive defeats during the presidential, parliamentarian and municipal elections against the Party of Erdogans in power and development.

Erdogan first faced a serious challenge to this electoral formula during the 2023 presidential election, when the surveys showed that the Imamoglu, unlike Kilicdaglu, was more popular than Erdogan.

In an apparent offer from Erdogan to neutralize the threat Five months before the elections, a court sentenced Imamoglu to 2 years in prison for insults of civil servants after calling the crazy people of the Supreme turkey. The decision is currently on appeal; If it is maintained, this would also prevent it from taking public functions.

Rather than supporting Imamoglu, Kilicdaroglu insisted to run against Erdogan himself in 2023. It was a departure from the two previous presidential elections, in which the RPP chief supported other candidates. Anyway, Kilicdaroglu has lost.

After the defeat, Kilicdaroglu was withdrawn from the management of the RPP, and the new party turns to Imamoglu to present itself as a presidential candidate. Now Imamoglu works with a popularity that exceeds erdogansmaking him the most formidable opposition candidate in two decades.

Erdogans declining popularity

During his long reign, Erdogan continued a two -part strategy to maintain his grip on power: winning the elections to claim legitimacy while simultaneously consolidating control by authoritarian means, such as imprisoned journalists and opposition personalities as terrorists.

However, the municipal elections of Turkeys 2024 marked a change in domestic policy. For the first time since 2002, Erdogans JDP fell in second place, while the RPP opposition has become the main party By part of a vote, guaranteeing major victories in Istanbul where Imamoglu was re -elected and Ankara, Turkeys Capital, where RPPS Mansur Yavas won another mandate.

A major factor in the decline in the popularity of the Erdogan Party and the Personally Leader is the continuous economic crisis of the countries. Since 2022, turkeys The annual inflation rate has oscillated around 50%Erode purchasing power and trigger a great brain flight while qualified Turkish citizens are looking for better opportunities elsewhere.

The crisis is Largely blamed for Erdogans's economic policiesIn particular its insistence to the decline in interest rates to combat inflation contradictive conventional economic wisdom.

Despite a recent policy reversal, the currency of the turkeys continues to depreciate. Five years ago, an American dollar was worth 5 Turkish Lira; Today, it has increased to 40.

Why is the Imamoglu targeted?

Incarceration is not an incredible tactic in Türkiye to silence the opposition figures. Selahattin Demirtas, the former leader of the Democratic Party of the Pro-Kurdish peoples, was Behind bars for over eight years on accusations of terrorism; And Umit Ozdag, the leader of the far -right victory party, has been in prison for two months for Insult Erdogan and encourage hatred.

The two men were irritating to Erdogan and could generate trouble, but neither threatened the power of Erdogans.

What makes the imamoglu unique is that he has a large appeal through different blocks of voter. He can attract Kurdish vote while retaining close ties with nationalist politicians with his charisma and his public speaking.

More importantly, it can call on secular and Islamic voters. It attracts the support of a strain of Turkish society which adheres to the secular vision exposed by Ataturk. But at the same time, he is able to make openings to religious voters, as if publicly recite the verses of the Koran.

This ability to unite various constituencies helped Imamoglu to defeat Erdogans' party in Istanbul twice in 2019 after the first defeat, Erdogan refused to accept the result and the Supreme Elections Council canceled the election.

The re -election of Imamoglus as mayor in 2024 solidified his reputation as a principal politician who could defeat Erdogan in the polls.

The last arrest of the popular politician triggered protests In several cities, a rare occurrence in Türkiye over the past decade. He also coincided with A 7% drop in the Turkish stock marketAs investors apparently considered it a signal of political instability.

But as events in recent days have shown, popular support alone may not be sufficient for Imamoglu to reach the presidency, it must also face judicial and other efforts to keep it outside the ballot.