Politics

Erdogans The foreign policy policy sees it the limits of power test

(Bloomberg) – President Recep Tayyip Erdogans, the climbing of the campaign against his most eminent political rival, was at the expense of the stability of the turkey market.

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It may be a price that he is ready to pay to erase the path to a third term.

Investors have scared development, Turkish assets displaying the biggest drops in the world on Wednesday. Authorities said the banks have sold up to $ 9 billion to support LIRA. While the markets stabilized on Thursday, the currency dropped by 0.3% to around 38 for a dollar at 15:15, local time, including HSBC Holdings PLC, say it is a risk of selling more sale on the rest of the year.

The government of Erdogans has sought to remove the investigation into Ekrem Imamoglu of the President himself, saying that Turkish prosecutors do not act under political pressure.

Turkey relaxes Erdogans Top Rival, triggering the merger of the market

However, the decision against the mayor of Istanbuls arrives at a time when the risk of international return is low. Europe focuses more on the Russian war on the potential role of Ukraine and the turkeys by helping to end it while US President Donald Trump rushes to engage with Vladimir Putin.

The government has a feeling of confidence renewed in its relations with the European Union because of the blocks must strengthen its defenses, said Selva Bahar Baziki, an economist at Bloomberg Economics in Ankara. Trump, she said, wouldn't weigh either.

Erdogan, 71, who has been in power for 22 years, benefits from significant control over almost all state levers. With his collaborators praising him to run again, his aggressive campaign against criticism, notably Imamoglu, is considered by some as trying to undermine any threat that he could face along the way.

What happened was an attempted coup, Ozgur Ozel, president of the main party of the Republican peoples of the opposition, the CHP, to which Imamoglu belongs, told a rally late Wednesday in Istanbul. This is no longer a case of Ekrem Imamoglu, it is a case of all our people.

The presidential elections were only due in 2028, but the legal subtleties of a third term currently prohibited under the Constitution mean that the stampede has already started. While Erdogan said that he would not seek another mandate, any change of heart or trying to choose a successor would be smoother with the most popular opposition politician turkeys outside the photo.

Imamoglu, who had prepared to announce his candidacy this week, was arrested on allegations of corruption. He denies allegations, citing political motivation. Thursday morning, he stayed in detention with little certainty about his fate.

Having beat Erdogans sorted on the aspect of the contenders during two consecutive elections in the largest city of turkeys, the mayor is considered the most formidable politician to test the sequence of victories of Erdogans. Mass demonstrations broke out in Istanbul after his outfit, with smaller demonstrations in other cities.

Erdogan has not yet publicly commented on the case.

The Minister of Justice, Yilmaz Tunc, warned against the connection of the detention of Imamoglus to Erdogan, stressing that Turkey is governed by the rule of law.

Trying to associate judicial investigations and business with our president is, to say the least, an act of audacity and irresponsibility, he said. The investigation will take place on the basis of the evidence presented, and we must all remain calm while we are waiting for the result.

There was a limited reaction from European officials. Sebastian Fischer, spokesperson for the German Ministry of Foreign Affairs, did not go beyond the description of the detention of Imamoglus as extremely disturbing. Chancellor Olaf Scholz called this depressing Turkish democracy and bilateral relations.

It is undoubtedly the reflection of the growing status of Erdogans in Foreign Affairs. He recently enjoyed a victory tour, when he acquired a significant influence in neighboring Syria after the collapse of the Assad regime.

After negotiating the grains of the Black Sea between Ukraine and Russia, he now seeks to forge closer defense ties with the EU something that NATO has also approved while the Trump administration examines US security commitments to the block.

In the economic sphere, Turkey has been pierced since mid-2010, recently won emerging market investors who had been disillusioned by unconventional Erdogans policies. These included ultra-basic interest rates to arouse credit stimulus and turbo-loading the economy to the detriment of price stability.

After his re -election in 2023, Erdogan enabled a team respectful of the market to take the lead in politics and to resolve the worst cost of living under his reign by reversing some of the unorthodox policies, a U -tower that saw the central bank increase rates.

However, the economic program, led by the Minister of Finance Mehmet Simsek, has shown its vulnerability to political developments despite the dozens of investor meetings that have taken place in the past year.

Erdogan criticisms shook by a wave of arrests and probes in Türkiye

That said, there is no immediate concern that Erdogans' trips to the internal political arena will lead to a change in its economic direction, even if the investors have already been burned. Part of the market pressure was held on Thursday.

As long as the Erdogan government stresses that the current economic strategy remains in place, the markets could over time choose to see through an even more democratic decline in Turkey, said Erik Meyersson, chief strategist of the market emerge at SEB.

All the same, he added, it would be long-term damage to turkeys.

(Updates with market movements in the third paragraph.)

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Erdogans The foreign policy policy sees it the limits of power test

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