Twin moves to the mayor of Istanbul of the ballot suggests that Erdogan is really worried this time

More free elections?

Erdogan is a master of elections in terms of Promote populist policiesAnd manipulate the media and electoral practices to work against opposition parties.

Facing low rivals, whether by chance or by its manipulations, has been the key to Erdogans' electoral success in the past two decades. Under the direction of his former chief, Kemal KilicdarogluThe opposition RPP underwent successive defeats during the presidential, parliamentarian and municipal elections against the Party of Erdogans in power and development.

Erdogan first faced a serious challenge to this electoral formula in the 2023 Presidential electionWhen surveys have shown that Imamoglu, unlike Kilicdagllu, was more popular than Erdogan.

In an apparent offer from Erdogan to neutralize the threat five months before the elections, a court sentenced the imamoglu to 2 years in prison For having insulted civil servants after calling the Turkeys Supreme Council Election Council Fools. The decision is currently on appeal; If it is maintained, this would also prevent it from taking public functions.

Rather than supporting Imamoglu, Kilicdaroglu insisted to run against Erdogan himself in 2023. It was a departure from the two previous presidential elections, in which the RPP chief supported other candidates. Regardless, Lost kilicdaroglu.

After the defeat, Kilicdaroglu was withdrawn from the management of the RPP, and the new party turns to Imamoglu to present itself as a presidential candidate. Now Imamoglu works with a popularity that exceeds erdogansmaking him the most formidable opposition candidate in two decades.

Erdogans declining popularity

During his long reign, Erdogan continued a strategy in two parts to maintain his grip on power: winning elections to claim legitimacy while simultaneously consolidating control by authoritarian means, such as the imprisonment of journalists and Figures of the opposition of the brand image as terrorists.

However, the municipal elections of Turkeys 2024 marked a change in domestic policy. For the first time since 2002, Erdogans JDP fell in second place, while the RPP opposition has become the main party By part of voting, guaranteeing major victories in IstanbulWhere Imamoglu was re -elected and Ankara, Turkeys Capital, where RPPS Mansur Yavas won another mandate.

A major factor in the decline in the popularity of the Erdogan party, and the leader personally, is the continuous economic crisis of the countries. Since 2022, turkeys The annual inflation rate has oscillated around 50%Erode purchasing power and trigger a great brain flight while qualified Turkish citizens are looking for better opportunities elsewhere.

The crisis is Largely blamed for Erdogans's economic policiesIn particular its insistence to the decline in interest rates to combat inflation contradictive conventional economic wisdom. Despite a recent policy reversal, the currency of the turkeys continues to depreciate. Five years ago, an American dollar was worth 5 Turkish Lira; Today, it has increased to 40.

Why is the Imamoglu targeted?

Incarceration is not an incredible tactic in Türkiye to silence the opposition figures. Selahattin Demirtas, the former leader of the Democratic Party of the Pro-Kurdish peoples, was Behind bars for over eight years on accusations of terrorism; And Umit Ozdag, the leader of the far -right victory party, has been in prison for two months for Insult Erdogan and encourage hatred.

The two men were irritating to Erdogan and could generate trouble, but neither threatened the power of Erdogans.

What makes the imamoglu unique is that he has a large appeal through different blocks of voter. He can attract the Kurdish vote while retaining close ties with nationalist politicians with his charisma and his public speaking.

More importantly, it can call on secular and Islamic voters.

It attracts the support of a strain of Turkish society which adheres to the secular vision exposed by Ataturk. But at the same time, he is able to make openings to religious voters, as if publicly recite the verses of the Koran. This ability to unite various constituencies helped Imamoglu to defeat Erdogans' party in Istanbul twice in 2019 after the first defeat, Erdogan refused to accept the result and the Supreme Elections Council canceled the election.

The re -election of Imamoglus as mayor in 2024 solidified his reputation as a principal politician who could defeat Erdogan in the polls.

The last arrest of the popular politician triggered protests In several cities, a rare occurrence in Türkiye over the past decade. He also coincided with A 7% drop in the Turkish stock marketAs investors apparently considered it a signal of political instability.

But as events in recent days have shown, popular support alone may not be sufficient for Imamoglu to reach the presidency, it must also face judicial and other efforts to keep it outside the ballot.

Ahmet T. KuruProfessor of Political Science, Director of the Center for Islamic and Arab Studies, San Diego State University

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