Politics
Surveys project heavy conservative losses in the May elections, but which earn them?
The conservatives should lose dozens of advisers during the local Mays elections to reform the United Kingdom and the Liberal Democrats, projected polls.
A total of 1,641 advisers will be elected in May at 23 authorities, including 14 county councils, eight unitary authorities and a metropolitan district.
Of these 23 authorities, 15 are defended by the Conservative Party in relation to only one for work, while the seven councils are not under global control (NOC).
Of these seven, four are led by conservative minority administrations, two by liberal democrats, and one by independents.
The authorities go to the polls in May 2025
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The elections – the first major batch since the general elections of July- are presented as a major test for both parts of the establishment, Work and the Conservatives.
They were disputed for the last time in 2021 when the conservative party recorded dominant results thanks to a vaccine rebound while voters reward Boris Johnsons Rapid Rapid.
However, three leaders later, the Kemi Badenochs party should now win 548 advisers in May, a net loss estimated at 390 advisers.
This would seem to confirm that conservative fortunes have not been reversed since the general elections in July 2024.
Sustainable by electoral calculation using MRP (regression on several levels and post-stratification), a relatively recent innovation in surveys which was used to successfully predict the last three British general elections, shows a reform of the United Kingdom and the democratic liberals capitalizing on conservative losses.
Nigel Farages Reform UK is expected to win 474 advisers, collecting 25% of the vote, while Ed Daveys' Liberal Democrats should win 270 advisers and 16% of the vote.
Projection for the authorities who go to the polls in May
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Due to the limits of the limits, it is difficult to compare the projected results with previous elections.
However, the main pollsters Electionmapsuk estimated that it would be a net gain of 470 reform advisers and 50 for Lib DEMS.
The planned share of the work of 252 advisers is also a bad result for the outgoing party, reflecting by a net loss of 40 seats.
Elsewhere, the Greens should win 27 seats (down 10) while 77 would go to others, mainly independents (down 80).
He comes after the same research by the electoral calculation revealed that the reform of the United Kingdom would have won the most advisers And the greatest number of votes if Angela Rayner had not canceled the elections with nine authorities.
Of the 32 authorities originally to be won, Reform UK would have won 12, the Tories 11 and the Lib Dems Eight.
Projections for authorities with elections against authorities with delays
Electoral calculation
But the work canceled the elections in nine authorities– East Sussex, West Sussex, Essex, Thurrock, Hampshire, Wight Island, Norfolk, Suffolk and Surrey.
Of these nine, The reform had to win four, Suffolk, Thurrock, Essex and Norfolk. This means that the party should now win eight authorities instead of 12.
In the meantime, tThe conservatives lose only one area which they had to win at cancellations, Hampshire.
This means that conservatives should now go out at the top in terms of number of authorities won with 10 (below), despite the loss of nearly 400 advisers.
By separating the survey for the areas where the elections are and not to be Going forward, we see again how Reform UK is harder by cancellations than any other part.
The Nigel Farages party was to win 223 advisers in the nine authorities where the elections were delayed, compared to Tories 140 and Lib DEMS 131.
Even with the delays that steal the reform of four advice and many advisers, if these results were to take place, it would be a major coup for the right -wing party and the first real proof of electoral success, because it only earned five deputies in July 2024.
Since July, the reform has won only five percent of 212 election council, despite the national polls giving them an extent to the United Kingdom.
Last of membership:
Boris Johnson The deployment of the successful vaccine saw the voters rewarding the Conservatives with strong results in the last local elections in May 2021
Getty
Martin Baxter, founder of Electoral Calculationus, said: “Our local electoral survey shows that the conservatives are likely to make significant losses compared to their strong performance in 2021.
Reform UK looks like the main winners because they could take control of eight tips to win their first real power base in the local government.
But large -scale delays in the elections, affecting more than five million and a half million voters, will soften the magnitude of conservative losses and will reduce the gains of the reform. “”
Aside from the councils, there are also four elections of mayor of the combined authority, two of which are new.
Cambridgeshire and Peterborough and western England were both won by work in 2021, while Grand Lincolnshire and Hull & East Yorkshire will go to the polls to elect a mayor for the first time.
Doncaster and North Tyneside will also eliminate mayors of the single authority, who are currently detained by work.
In addition, elections take place in the islands of Scilly.
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Sources 2/ https://www.gbnews.com/politics/elections-may-labour-tories-reform-2671396209 The mention sources can contact us to remove/changing this article |
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