Bad news for work and its attacks on reform policies that they probably do not work

The work hopes to weaken the reform by attacking its policies, but a vote for the Nigel Farage party is still often a vote of protest, says that Sophie Stowers.

Are you going to defend British workers or vote against the strengthening of their rights? This is the question asked in Nigel Farage in a letter of the red wall group of labor deputies. Its part of a new visible determination on the part of the ruling party to trip Nigel Farage and thwart its growing survey numbers. This can work. But it is far from clear that it will.

The Labor Party clearly believes that reform has vulnerability. His socially conservative opinions – notably on immigration and Brexit – call on a large multipartite coalition of pro -free market, economically right -wing conservatives and former poorer and pro -redistribution work. However, with regard to economic policy, the interests of the two groups diverge very strongly. If the electoral battlefield in 2029 is the details of economic policy, this will be important.

The data present it to a certain extent. The reform is a victim of their own success. A few 80% of their voters 2024 Voted Tory in 2019. However, these were Boris Johnsons Tories, a collection of disenchanted voters who were also likely to have migrated to the Conservatives of the Labor Party as of the Brexit Party. The very diversity of this coalition means that its members have different opinions on economic policy. Data from The British electoral study shows that if many reformist voters of 2024 share the same authoritarian social values, their economic opinions are less coherent – 42% of them oppose redistribution policies, while 30% favor them.

In terms of real party policy, Reform UK has to date leaning towards the small crowd rather than former labor voters whose economic preferences could be more interventionary. Behind the cover of his Sarcelle contract with the British people disposed of tax reductions (estimated by Ifs To reach 90 billion), a decrease in the tax rate on companies by 10%, reductions in government services, tax relief for private health care users, reforms of the benefits system and the withdrawal of employment protections.

No, of course, that they had a lot in the last elections. Only 2% of reform voters Say that they voted for the role because of its tax policy, against 34% who said that they did it due to the policies of parties on immigration. The question is whether this situation is sustainable.

There is of course the possibility that the reform can adapt. One of the clearest contrasts with each other and the right -wing populist parties in continental Europe is that many of the latter have adopted relatively left positions on the economy. Wilders has managed to link migration to the construction of houses and social housing and economic security. THE AFD was vocal In favor of minimum salary protections and pensions for the poorest households. Le Pen has become much more interventionist in recent years, speaking in favor of social assistance for the poorest.

And there is a precedent for fagging to coopte work policies if it helps his party in the polls. Ukip derived to the left Because he began to take votes from former disgruntled labor voters with a view to the 2015 general elections. The manifesto of the parties opposed the privatization of Royal Mail and favored the limitation of zero hour contracts, the abolition of chambers tax and the establishment of progressive taxation. One could assume that Nigel Farage is capable of a degree of ideological flexibility.

And then there is the question of whether reform policies are important. In the harvest of what was in force one vote above, the party benefited from the anti-stitching wave which was a functionality From most elections in 2024. Many of those who voted for reform are united not only by their socially conservative opinions, but their apathy towards Westminster policy and the skepticism of politicians' capacities to improve their lives.

Nine months after the elections, these voters are already doubtful of the capacities of labor governments – 2024 voters reform are by far the most Probably in any part to say that they think that work is out of ideas and has no competent politicians.

And so, the government and red wall deputies can get rid of how Farage and Co voted on the bill on employment rights everything they love. But if the government cannot respect its commitments to improve the standard of living, public services and the reduction of net migration, why would the reform of unhappy voters be so good to attract them listening to them?

The more the reform can encourage people to check the box above the above box, the less their real policies.

By Sophie Stowers, research partner in the United Kingdom in a changing Europe.

A version of this article appeared for the first time inThe guardianFriday January 31.