Editorial: Preparation of the Davidson window

The army leads its annual Han Kuang exercises in phases. The Minister of National Defense recently declared that this year's scenarios would simulate the defense of the nation against the possible actions that the Liberation Army of the Chinese peoples (PLA) could adopt an invasion of Taiwan, again making the threat of a Chinese invasion speculated in 2027 an animated object.

That year, also called the Davidson window, was appointed according to the admiral of the Indo-Pacific command, Philip Davidson, who in 2021 warned that Chinese President Xi Jinping () had asked the APL to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027.

In 2017, XI announced a calendar of modernization of the APL to improve combat preparation, in particular by saying that in 2027, the 100th anniversary of the APL China Foundation must achieve its objective and in depth improve our strategic capacities to defend national sovereignty, safety and development of interest. This was considered the first possible deadline for China to take Taiwan by force.

Another year of a possible Chinese incursion through the Taiwan Strait is 2035, the year of China which plans to finish the modernization of the APL, or by 2049, the chronology is set to the APL to fully switch to a world class soldier, aimed at defying the global position of the United States to carry out the national refining of Chinas.

Experts in recent years have raised questions about a possible invasion in 2027. Some analysts have declared that, given the economic slowdown and the deterioration of the international environment, the unification of Taiwan may not be absolute priority. Given the pre-preparatory prior investments in Taiwan, the United States, Japan and other Asian countries that probably oppose China’s objective, an invasion of Taiwan would be a risky and costly decision. In addition, XI since 2023 has carried out a radical campaign against deeply anchored government corruption, which led to the purge of nearly two dozen military officials. The movements could also reflect a concern that corruption practices block the capacities and the preparation of the military to be able to invade in a short time.

Former American CIA director William Burns said that the assertion that the soldiers of Chinas are ready for an invasion by 2027 does not mean that XI has decided to invade this year or any other year, but as it is a recall of the severity of his objective and his ambition, these schedules should be warning. Given that the APL has expanded its military presence beyond its field and has sparked territorial confrontations with countries of the Asia-Pacific region, the reality that the pursuit of Chinese of large-scale military capacities is a severe threat not only for Taiwan, but also for international security in the Indo-Pacific region and beyond should not be neglected.

By using the China calendar as a reference for the defense strategy, Taiwan has long made efforts in the annual increase in the defense budget and the improvement of military preparation. This year, Han Kuang Foret would concentrate for the first time on the blockade tactics of the Chinese gray area and simulates the defense of the nation against a possible attack in the coming years, aimed at dissuading China to transform the exercise into war.

National Defense Minister Wellington Koo () said: Taiwan has never underestimated the threat of China and has prepared countermeasures against him, adding that Taiwanese forces have always maintained great preparation for combat.

While the latest evaluation of the American annual threats reaffirmed China as the main military threat to the United States and that a conflict in the Taiwan Strait would have significant consequences for global economic and security interests, the United States, Taiwan and the international community should strengthen cooperative and global security operations.

Preparation is the best deterrent in conflict, and the measures must be taken not only for 2027, but also in the longer term.