Politics
Could Starmer be forced to resign? Faced with the Red Wall Effiche Wait Pire than 2019 while the reform is ready to improve Boris Blitz
Reform UK is on the right track to inflict more damage in the so-called red wall of the work than Boris Johnson in 2019.
The Bombshell Mega survey occurs a few days after a surviving survey revealed that the insurgent party of the traditional heart of the Labor Party, with support in the North and the midlands going from 18% that it obtained in the last 30% general elections.
More in Common's latest survey suggests that the gains in the red wall of plowing in the last general elections would not only be reversed, but Keir Starmer's party would lose more than in 2019, when Prime Minister Boris Johnson won a majority of 80 places while turning the seats of the Red Wall for the first time.
The new survey at least 2,000 people has the work by keeping only six of the 42 seats of origin on the red wall if an election was held tomorrow, the majority turning to the reform, not to the conservatives.
The survey has the workforce which keeps only six of the 42 seats of origin on the red wall if an election was held tomorrow, the majority turning to the reform
More common
By virtue of this modeling, the reform would become most of Great Britain, obtaining up to 180 seats, 150 of which would turn the party of Starmer. The work and the conservatives would be equal to 165 seats each.
Why the redweight the red wall is so important
The John Curtice elections guru has already poured cold water on the breakthroughs of the reform in the red wall, highlighting the voters of the working class who deserted the party from Starmer en mass in 2019 did not return.
During the last general elections, work has barely increased its support in the red wall. In fact, Starmer's voting share in 31 Wall Red seats has in fact decreased despite the victory of the game landslides.
A post-electoral analysis of the expert in survey and former president of Yougov, Peter Kellner, suggested that the plowing recovery of his traditional heart was much more a product of the collapse of conservatives and voters who reform.
Although Curtice suggests that the call of the reform in the red wall has reached its natural limit, the new survey upsets this hypothesis, with greater projected gains suggesting that the insurgent party has a more unexploited base to continue.
Other results of the new survey
The Welsh Valleys, including Merthyr Tydfil – The headquarters of the first laboratory leader – would almost completely fall to reform the United Kingdom, while the SNP would take up a large part of the Central Scottish belt.
Ten of the 23 ministers of the cabinet would lose their seats, nine against the reform of the United Kingdom, including Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, the boss of the cabinet Pat McFadden and the interior secretary Yvette Cooper. The Secretary of Health, Wes Streting, would lose his headquarters to an independent candidate.
The other cabinet ministers to lose their headquarters to reform include:
- Secretary of defense John Healey (Rawmarsh and Conisbrough, Reform Uk Gain)
- Secretary of Education And the Minister of Women and Equality Bridget Phillipson (Houghton and Sunderland South, Reform Uk Gain)
- Energy secretary Ed Miliband (Doncaster North, Reform UK Gain)
- Business secretary Jonathan Reynolds (Stalybridge and Hyde, Reform Uk Gain)
- Secretary of culture Lisa Nandy (Wigan, Reform Uk Gain)
- Secretary of health Wes Streting (Ilford North, independent gain)
- Whip Alan Campbell (Tynemouth, Reform Uk Gain)
The bombshell mega survey suggests that resentment in the traditional heart of work has been curled since 2019
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Meanwhile, the Conservatives would barely recover from their record defeat in 2024, winning work seats and liberals-democrats, but only corresponding to their second modern result on 165 seats, and losing other seats with reform, including Whip Rebecca Harris and the Shadow Victoria Atkins environment.
The Liberal Democrats would hold almost all of their record winnings last July, losing only five seats with the Conservatives, one to reform the United Kingdom while winning a seat of work.
The SNP would reappear as the largest part of Scotland on 35 seats with work 15.
In addition to keeping their existing seats, the model predicts that the reform will earn 175 new seats across the country, including in all regions of England and Wales.
The model also believes that during a general election, the work would lose the seat of Runcorn and Helsby – which will be disputed during a by -election on May 1 – with a bidirectional swing of 19.5 points to the reform.
While the Labor Party loses most of the seats to the reform of the United Kingdom, our national survey on the intention of voting shows that the party loses almost as many votes against other parties on the left. Although this is not translated into gains of seats for the Liberal Democrats and the Greens, the share of rare voting on their progressive flank erodes the margin of the works.
During a general election, these progressive defections would allow reform and conservatives to win additional seats on their part.
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Sources 2/ https://www.gbnews.com/politics/reform-uk-nigel-farage-party-keir-starmer-poll-election The mention sources can contact us to remove/changing this article |
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