Countries face pressure to pick up the sides

WelcomeForeign policyS China Brief.

The strengths of this week: the American-Chinese Trade War place of other countries in a painful position, the death of Pope Francis compromises a Chinese agreement with the Vatican and Chinese Food delivery applications Fight for business.

WelcomeForeign policyS China Brief.

The strengths of this week: the American-Chinese Trade War place of other countries in a painful position, the death of Pope Francis compromises a Chinese agreement with the Vatican and Chinese Food delivery applications Fight for business.

The United States and China put pressure on business partners

With No clear end in sight For the American-Chinese trade war, the two countries are trying to take thirds with strong arms to take sides. The United States is promising The possible reductions in prices set for 10% universal, until the end of the 90 -day break in July for countries that are willing to restrict Chinese trade and investment.

China, on the other hand, has warned that he firmly opposes any party, reaching an agreement at the expense of Chinese interest. If such a situation occurs, China will not accept it and resolutely take reciprocal countermeasures. Chinese experts also have called For other countries to resist pressure from the Trump administration.

Official language of Beijing underlines This surrender is not an option: negotiation with a tiger will only be devoured by the tiger, and the resolved struggle is the only way to win the future. China has also called On the international community not to be lazy in the face of hegemonic and intimidation behavior of the United States.

But at the same time, Beijing threw its weight to try to prevent others from concluding agreements with Washington, especially restrictions On exports to the United States of South Korean products manufactured with rare Chinese earths.

This competition leaves the rest of the world in a painful position. The American-Chinese rivalry was once a source of lever for countries looking for foreign help and investment, but now Washington offers sticks instead of carrots, and Beijing seems to follow.

In particular, countries in Southeast Asia such as Cambodia and Vietnam I cannot afford to give up American exports, but they cannot afford to lose Chinese investments. They could be ready to do token gestures To appease Washington, but they will not go away from Beijing. Their most likely course is to try to get closer to the United States on commercial demands while providing China with increased security cooperation to compensate.

The Trump administration, on the other hand, claims to be in commercial negotiations with more than 70 countries. But even under normal conditions, commercial transactions require About 18 months to negotiate and 45 months to be implemented. Doing 70 agreements at the same time, in particular with an exhausted and inexperienced team of American officials, is a virtual impossibility.

The prospects for an American chinese agreement have been damaged by the untimely language used by the Trump team and other Republicans. Vice-president JD Vances uses the term Chinese peasantsFor example, has repercussions on the Chinese Internet, which considers it a contemptuous insult.

China remains open to an agreement and Chinese diplomats and economists have sought serious people who to talk to the American side. They may find some: the secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent and the Secretary of Commerce Howard Libenick seem open to negotiations because they played an important role in persuasion President Donald Trump to interrupt his so-called reciprocal rates on April 9.

During a private meeting with investors on Tuesday, bessent called The trade war is unbearable and said that de -escalation will come. Rationally, he is right. A already wobbly The American economy cannot afford a complete decoupling of the second economy in the world and the main manufacturer. And the Chinese economy is astounding of the cocovan-19 pandemic and a real estate bubblecant that bursts to lose its main export market.

But it is not rational times, and any agreement must go through the court of a president who wants everything to be about him.

What followed

The Popes of Death jeopardize. China sent condolences to the Vatican after the death of Pope Francis on Monday. But with Francis disappeared, a key agreement can be in danger. There are indeed two Chinese Catholic churchesAlthough believers often overlap: the Chinese Patriotic Catholic Association (CCPA), which is approved by Beijing, and the underground Catholic Church, which is recognized by the rest of the world.

The persecution of Christians has increase Under the Chinese president Xi Jinping, but last year, Beijing and the Holy See extended a 2018 agreement which gives the Vatican a certain contribution on the selection of bishops within the CCPA. The full text of the agreement is not public, but the Vatican accused China for raped her in 2022.

Human rights defenders criticized Francis, who supported the agreement in the hope of protecting Chinese Catholics, to ignore the fate of other minorities in China and conclude an agreement which, according to them, is indeed the capitulation of the Chinese Communist Party. The next pope can see things differently.

Ukraine and China Longeron. After accusing China to close their eyes to Chinese mercenaries who are fighting for Russia, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that China also provided weapons to Russia and supervising the manufacture of weapons on Russian soil.

China, which says that it is attached to peace in Ukraine but supported Russia in practice, called Based accusations.

Individual Chinese entrepreneurs certainly have benefit Russian military needs, and Beijing may also be. But Kyiv has not yet made public evidence that Zelensky claims to have, and he could try to take advantage of anti-china feelings in the Trump administration to get more support.

FPS most read this week

Tech and Business

Impact of freight. The slow iceberg of the American-Chinese trade war begins to collapse, while freight shipments across the Pacific the ocean decreases. From last week, 80 Sailingsmeaning speeds canceled Oneshad been recorded Since the prices have been announced, totaling around 640,000 to 800,000 shipping containers.

It is not only companies that rely on imports who take a hittits the entire transport chain. People working in the American trucking industry, which relies on daily activities to bring containers from ports to retailers, begin to panic.

Trade, however, tends to find a means. Although the global scope of American measures has reduced the usefulness of transhipment to avoid prices on China, American consumers have sophisticated On the Chinese electronic commerce application Dunhuang (known as DHGATE in English), which sells goods directly from factories, in an attempt to take advantage of Chinese manufacturing prices that remain lower than American prices even with prices.

Delivery price war. THE stock prices Chinese food delivery applications have dropped as vicious war wages on the domestic market. Food delivery is extremely cheap in China, and it has climbed even higher during the pandemic, but the demand for food delivery now decreases as the economy stagnates.

Two of the largest food delivery applications, JD.com and Meituan, are fighting and would try to force drivers, most of whom change between applications to search for the best remunerated routes, to Choose one side. This caused a lot of bad public relations; Delivery drivers, who have risked their health during the pandemic, are already living difficult times.