Southeast Asia is walking on a cautious trajectory between China and the United States

The third week of April experienced a very geo-economic and strategic visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping in Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia. Although her visit was scheduled for months ago, she fell at a timely time for Beijing, with the international disarray trade system due to the actions of US President Donald Trump. On April 2, Trump launched his prices, revealing the steep “reciprocal” tasks on goods coming to the United States of most of its business partners, including 49% of prices on Cambodia products, 46% on those who come from Vietnam and between 20 and 30% on most countries in South-East Asia. The tariff disorders have reached trade and investment flows as well as the financial markets. Most countries, including Southeast Asia, are currently predicting a major global economic slowdown. Several agencies have reduced their growth forecasts for the region this year.

Writing in the Nhan Dan newspaper of Vietnam before his visit to the country, Xi Jinping said that countries should work to advance a “complete and inclusive global globalization. Trade wars and tariff wars give no winner, and protectionism offers no solutions. He also noted that in an era of unilateralism and protectionism ascent, the Chinese economy remained a “key engine of the global economy”. In this context, he also added that “China will persist in the high -level opening, creating more opportunities for the world and will also contribute to the development shared with other countries thanks to its own high quality development”.

During a meeting with the secretary general of the Communist Party of Vietnam, Lam after his arrival, Xi said that their two countries “had brought the precious stability and certainty of the world” in a “turbulent world”. The world “stands at the turn of history,” said Xi, and the States of China and Southeast Asia “should go ahead with joint hands”. In this context, Professor Zachary Abuza of the National War College of Washington, observed that the Chinese chief is pressure on “an open door”. XI described China, which has more than 980 billion businesses with Southeast Asia as a force for economic stability and multilateralism. Unlike Washington, Xi Jinping presents itself in Beijing as predictable, cooperative and committed to gaining trade and investment. “”

We can also note here that Vietnam is the largest Chinese goods buyer in the region, imports from China reaching more than 30% in the US dollar 144 billion in 2024, according to the General Ministry of Vietnam Customs.

Malaysian king Sultan Ibrahim and Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim officially received Chinese President Xi Jinping when he arrived in Malaysia. Sultan Ibrahim welcomed XI during a colorful ceremony at the Palais of Istana Negara in Dome of Gold before his meeting with Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim in the administrative capital of Putrajaya.

It was obvious that Chinese President Xi Jinping met King Sultan Ibrahim in Malaysia in Kuala Lumpur as part of a regional thrust to consolidate Beijing trade relations. This diplomatic stage marked the second stage of the Trois Nations of Xi.

XI presented a “new era of gold” of Malaysian Chinese relations, after the 50th anniversary of diplomatic links last year. The king announced a new cooperation between countries in various fields, including artificial intelligence.

“This is an extremely important visit,” said Rob McBride of Al Jazeera, accounting for Putrajaya. “This takes place during this unprecedented trade war that develops with the United States, Malaysia and China being in the middle.”

Khoo Ying Hooi, an associate professor of the Department of International and Strategic Studies at the University of Malaya, also observed that the visit offered a chance to “test waters for regional solidarity” in the midst of American commercial disturbances. “It is not only a question of friendship, it is a question of realizing the regional center of gravity towards Beijing,” she said.

Malaysia is the current president of the association of Southeast Asian Nations (Anase) Bloc, whose members seem to be the hardest affected by the new American prices. The member of ASEAN, Vietnam, a manufacturing power, was slapped with rates of 46%, and Cambodia, an important producer of low -cost clothing for major Western brands, was struck by 49%. Malaysia, the third economy of Southeast Asia, was struck by a relatively lower price of 24%. Although the measures have been interrupted for 90 days, President Trump also warned that no country was “won”.

McBride said that Malaysia, a long -standing American ally, was probably “really alarmed to be on this list of reciprocal rates” and saw it as “an alarm clock to deepen links with its greatest trading partner”, China. The visit and the way in which the Chinese president also received an honor also indicated that Malaysia had not neglected the fact that despite solid economic ties, the two countries had tensions on the Southern China Sea, where the Beijing authority claims on the waters also claimed by Kuala Lumpur. McBride Furger added that in Asia-Pacific, generally, countries that are generally aligning with the American economic model are increasingly turning to Beijing as a reliable trading partner.

After his arrival, Chinese President Xi Jinping met the Prime Minister of Cambodia Hun Manet in Phnom Penh and stressed that China is trying to strengthen regional business ties to compensate for the effect of steep prices in the United States. XI was greeted by the King of Cambodia Norodom Sihamoni during a military reception ceremony while he was attacked in the capital.

Meac Soksensensan, spokesperson for the Cambodian Ministry of Economy and Finance, told the Reuters news agency on the eve of the arrival of XI according to which “we expect more cooperation on the development of infrastructure”. He obviously referred to Cambodia expecting Beijing to announce financial support for the 180 km Funan Techo Canal, foreshadowing 180 km, but now reduced to 151.6 km – the most ambitious infrastructure project in the country. Until now, China has made no public financial commitment to the Cambodia Canal project, while Phnom Penh has changed its Chinese 100% to 49% coverage of total costs, estimated at $ 1.7 billion. It will now be funded by a public-private partnership with Cambodian investors with a 51% stake and Chinese investors holding 49%.

Such an anticipation has appeared because Phnom Penh is a partner close to China, which has invested billions of US dollars in various projects, including roads and airports. It is also the largest creditor in the country.

It should be remembered that Cambodia is a major exporter of clothing and shoes in the United States, with half of these companies belonging to owners of Chinese companies. In such a scenario, Phnom Penh was slapped with an American rate rate of 49%, one of the highest in the world – although most tasks have been interrupted until July.

It is understood that, although Cambodia is trying to negotiate a reduction in the price rate imposed on them, Xi Jinping apparently reminded them that the two countries were friends, and Cambodia should not want to conclude agreements at Beijing.

It should also be mentioned that China also congratulated Cambodia's efforts to suppress illegal online games of online and telecommunications fraud in their joint declaration.

In an article published in the Cambodian media, XI also urged Phnom Penh to oppose “hegemonism” and “protectionism” which had been reiterated earlier during the first two stages of his trip to Vietnam and Malaysia.

At this stage, it can be noted that China is the largest trading partner in Cambodia and the source of investment, and more than a third of the US dollar in Cambodia 11 billion foreign debts is due to China, according to the International Monetary Fund.

Such a situation led Chheang Vannarith, a political analyst to observe that Xi's visit to Phnom Penh marks “a new step in the bilateral relationship”. He said that expectations are high for greater cooperation on infrastructure projects, as well as trade, development, tourism, technology and other sectors. In Cambodia, China is very critical in socioeconomic development and poverty reduction. Cambodia is trying to diversify its export products and export markets in order to reduce a risk of too much on the American market. China emerges to be another key destination for Cambodian exports. “”

Vannarith also added that Cambodia expects to increase its exports to China in response to the price pressure of US President Donald Trump.

It should be noted that Beijing did not sign any new loan to Cambodia last year, according to official Cambodian data, a marked contrast with previous years when it has lent to the country of the Hundreds of Millions of US Dollars. The drop in financing occurred while China reduced overall investments abroad in the midst of internal economic misfortunes and concerns about unsuccessful projects.

Despite this, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet revealed that the two countries had “common interests based on the principles of respect for sovereignty, equality and non-confusion in domestic affairs”. He also recognized that China had played a “central role” in the socioeconomic development of Cambodia.

Nevertheless, a denotation is clear in the current paradigm. China and the leaders of the three countries visited by the Chinese president realize that they must find common denominators so that they can move forward in their quest for socio-economic development in the middle of the national security matrix.

Muhammad Zamir, a former ambassador, is an analyst specializing in foreign affairs, the right to information and good governance. [email protected]