The dynamics behind the current shock of India-Pakistan

Early Wednesday morning, India launched military strikes against Pakistan, killing more than thirty people, according to the Pakistani government. The Indian government said yesterday that Pakistan had responded with numerous drone strikes. It is the greatest military confrontation between India and Pakistan for decades. The two countries have been conflict with each other for more than seventy-five years; The latter volley was launched when twenty-five Indian tourists were killed in a terrorist attack last month on the territory of Jammu-et-Cachemire. (A local resident of cashmere has also been killed.) The Cashmere region has a long history of militant activity, including a part of funded and sponsored by Pakistan and opposition to Indian domination. The majority of the cashmere access to India after the 1947 score, and the Indian government has committed vast human rights violations. In 2019, Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of Indians, revoked the special status of cashmeses under the Indian Constitution, which was granted as the only state in India with a Muslim majority. Since then, India has further suppressed dissent in the region, while increasing tourism. Now there is a considerable fear that the conflict between India and Pakistan, which both have nuclear weapons, can degenerate.

I recently talked by phone with Sushant Singh, professor of South Asian studies in Yale, and editor-in-chief of Caravan magazine, on the current situation. During our conversation, which was published for duration and clarity, we also discussed how the political dynamics in India and Pakistan could contribute to an enlargement of the conflict, long -term failures from Indian governments to cashmere, and why the worlds embrace Modi made it less likely to seek peace.

What about this new or different situation, for the Indians or the Pakistanis or the Kashmiris?

The only big difference this time was visible in cashmere, after these tourists were slaughtered. For the first time in a long time, we have seen the cashmere cashmiris out in large numbers and protest against the murders. There were candlestick marches, there were demonstrations, there were people who condemned him publicly. It has been very difficult in the past thirty or thirty-five years to ensure that the Kashmiris supported India, in a certain sense or against armed militants who recommended separatism or Pro-Pakistani policy in cashmere. It was an excellent opportunity for Mr. Modis 'government, but Mr. Modis' government did not take this opportunity. They continued their demolition policies for suspicious activists' houses and oppressive security operations to stop a large number of young men, which clearly helps nothing. It was an excellent opportunity for him to take advantage, which he did not understand.

How do you understand this Kashmiris response?

Tourism has been a great characteristic of the Kashmir economy and the company Kashmir, and tourists have always been considered guests. Seeing tourists selected and killed in these figures was a reversal of everything they have supported over the years. Not only in terms of cashmiriyat, one aspect of which is the idea that tourists are guests, but also in terms of economic damage it causes.

You described this as an opportunity you think Modi has missed. What exactly was this opportunity and what do you think the Indian government wants to do instead?

The opportunity was therefore very simple. He could have announced certain measures to engage politically with the State and support tourism, because Indian tourists will not go to cashmere now. There have been a large number of cancellations that occurred. It could have announced a form of subsidy, a form of economic support for hotels and tourist guides and for other people associated with local tourism. He could have emphasized the fact that a young cashmere had been killed while he was trying to save Indian tourists. He could also have stressed that a large number of cashmere taxi drivers and hospital workers, etc., did everything possible to help Indian tourists after this heinous attack. He didn't do anything about it. He could even have taken this moment to announce daring steps such as the restoration of the state to cashmere, or the empowerment of cashmere in an important way. There could have been small tactical steps, which would have helped administratively but also major daring political stages to hire the cashmiris and try to win them.

But just to be clear: he refused this opportunity not because he is insufficiently daring or because he is loose, but rather because he does not want to seize this opportunity for ideological reasons, right?

Absolutely. The Hindutva ideology, to which Modis signed, sees cashmere as a land rather than a people. While, fundamentally, what I support is that cashmere concerns more the people than the earth. We have to try to win the Kashmiris, not just see how we can control the earth.

What feels different or not different this time about the dynamics between India and Pakistan?

There is a strong similarity with what happened in 2019, when the Indian troops were killed in Pulwama by a young suicide bomber, then Indian Air Force fighter planes tried to hit a seminar in Balakot, in the province of Pakistan of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Pakistan retaliated, and there was an aerial confrontation, an Indian MIG-21 plane was killed, an Indian pilot was captured, a fighter plane would have been shot and the Indians shot their own helicopter, etc.

But what is most amazing here is the range of targets chosen by India and where these targets are. These nine objectives that India claims to have achieved were chosen not only from the Pakistani cashmere, but also at Punjab. Now Balakot was also outside the cashmere, but it was in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is a tribal area, and not really considered to be part of the Pakistani heart. While Punjab is the heart of Pakistan. It is the most dominant province, it is the most populous province, it is politically the most powerful province. And even in Punjab, one of these strikes has actually targeted Muridke, which is just outside Lahore. Taking one of the largest cities in Southern Asia and making your soldier strike it with a certain form of weapons is something that has not been seen outside the wars in its own right. It is therefore the big difference. And all these places are mainly madrassas or Islamic seminars. These targets can therefore be considered to be provocative and escalation.

But I must also specify that in all the statements that the Indian government has published, he tried to say that these strikes were precise, very targeted and not climbed. They constantly underlined the non -climbing nature of the strikes, even in conversation with foreign diplomats. I think there is a certain fear in the government of Mr. Modis, that these strikes should not lead to an escalation which becomes uncontrollable.

But how do you understand this contradiction, that is to say that they have struck targets in Punjab, but at the same time they try to prevent climbing?

Yes, so there is certainly a contradiction and a tension here, and a very high risk. There will always be a risk of climbing. But they highlight the fact that they only went for non -military objectives, said they did not try to target civilians, that these targets are only terrorist infrastructure and were only bombed at night to limit the victims. And as media reports have suggested, these madrassas or seminars had already been canceled earlier. Thus, the way they tried to manage it is to minimize the number of victims and messages. But does it really help? Does this really allow them to fill the contradiction or to mount two boats at the same time? Only time will tell us.

What are the long -term objectives of Modi Governments in the long term? It looks like what you say, to read between the lines, is that they want to have a kind of strike that establishes a deterrence or a nationalist good faith, but at the same time does not lead to a greater war, right?

Yeah, but I wouldn't call it deterrence. There would be no deterrence unless you target the Pakistani army. Deterrence cannot be established by targeting certain seminars. I think that the main objective of these strikes is to strengthen its own nationalist good faith and to satisfy and assume the very increased emotion that the India mass media have generated in the last two weeks at the request of the government.

Okay, I was about to say that increased emotion and media coverage seem to occur, partly thanks to the power party.

Exactly. This is what I say. It is at the request of Mr. Modis' government, and they do it willingly as an accomplice, as propagandists. It is manufactured, but it also draws from something and builds a story and helps build the image of Mr. Modis as this strong man and as a daring leader, as a heroic leader who made this great decision [to strike Pakistan]. Is there a strategic vision on this subject? Will this dissuade future violent incidents from militants or armed men or terrorists, how do you want to call them? No. Clearly no. 2019 has already shown us that it is not possible to create a deterrence like this. If there was a strategic opinion, India would already have a larger range of options in various fields. More broadly, and not only in terms of this week, India would probably engage on the economic front, on the diplomatic front, on the cultural front, on the front of people to the person and on the military front with punishments and rewards.

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